To The Moon

On Thu, 05 Feb 2026, US market fell again: (see below)

US market as of Thu, 05 Feb 2026 Closing

The Dow :

• Fell by -1.2% (−592.58 points to 48,908.72).

• Spared the worst of the "AI bloodbath" because it is less concentrated in high-growth software stocks, unlike Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 :

• Fell by -1.2% (−84.32 to 6,798.40).

• Its the 3rd straight day of losses.

• While the "Big Tech" components dragged down the S&P 500, gains in defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples (eg. $Procter & Gamble(PG)$ up +1.11%) provided a small cushion.

Over the 5 days ending 05 Feb 2026, the S&P 500 lost about -2.45% from its recent high of 6,991.92 on 02 Feb 2026. This is serious ! (see above)

The Nasdaq :

• Was the epicenter of the volatility.

• It slumped by -1.59% (−363.99 to 22,540.59).

• Its worst 2-day drop since April 2025, closing near 22,540.

The Volatility Index.

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has proved that volatility (in US market) encountered since February 2026 is “real”. (see below)

• The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to +18.64 on 4 Feb 2026, up 3.56% from the day before.

• It has climbed from lows around 16 earlier in the week, signaling increased investor anxiety.

Investor jitters about (a) tech stocks (especially AI vested ones) and (b) health of US labour market conditions, helped to send stocks lower on Thu, 5 Feb 2026.

The Vicious Cycle.

The issue with US market and the likes is, once there is abrupt movement in one of them (eg. US stock market), a ripple effect might run through the entire ecosystem.

US Treasury as Safe haven ?

During Feb 3 - 5, stock selloff, US Treasuries rallied as a safe haven, with yields declining amid equity volatility.(see above)

• US 30-year Treasury fell marginally from 4.9% (recent high) to current 4.85%.

• US 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.29% (04 Feb 2026) to 4.21% (by 05 Feb 2026), falling by -8 basis points as prices rose.

• US 3-year note also eased from 3.64% (04 Feb 2026) to 3.52% (06 Feb 2026).

• US 2-year note held steady at 3.57% and intraday gains, clearly signaling demand.

Current US Fed funds rate set in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% (effective rate of approx. 3.64%).

Compared to US Treasury yields, there’s a "normal" or "steep" curve where bond investor earns more interest for lending money for a longer time.

Bitcoin Tumbes ?

Bitcoin has fallen sharply since early February 2026:

• It has dropped from highs near $82,959 (30 Jan 2026) to around $65,049 (by 06 Feb 2026).

• It’s a roughly -22% decline amid heavy liquidation of crowded positions.

• On 5 Feb 2026, it has plunged -10% to -13% alone, hitting a 16-month low below $60,062.

• All this before a partial rebound, effectively erasing post-Trump election gains.

• Bitcoin was fully caught up in the US market volatility, behaving like a high-beta risk asset alongside tech stocks during the AI-fears selloff and unwinding trades.

• More important, the synchronized retreat underscores fading perceptions of Bitcoin as un-correlated "digital gold," amplifying broader equity pressure.

Root Cause/s.

For much of 2024 and early 2025, Wall Street’s favorite trade was "all-in on AI," with a heavy focus on enterprise software and IT services.

However, this trade recently "collapsed" or shifted into a "repricing" phase.

The catalyst was the realization that AI-native tools, like Anthropic’s latest models Claude’s Opus 4.6, released on 4 Feb 2026, might cannibalize the revenue of traditional software companies and headcount-heavy IT consulting firms.

Investors shifted from buying "AI-enabled" companies to fearing "AI-disrupted" ones.

This pivot triggered a massive sell-off, wiping out an estimated $280 billion in market capitalization across software and data-centric stocks in a single trading session.

Opus 4.6 Capabilities.

With built-in "adaptive thinking", this latest release automatically adjusts the depth of thinking according to the complexity of the task.

It spends more time thinking about difficult problems and quickly gets through simple tasks.

In terms of coding ability, Opus 4.6 achieved the highest score in the Terminal - Bench 2.0 evaluation against Gemini Google and OpenAI ChatGPT. (see below)

In short, Opus 4.6 will behave more like a skilled programmer than a simple chatbot.

It can navigate computer systems to fix errors and manage complex software tasks.

It features a massive "memory" capable of reading two full novels at once; while older models often forgot details in long documents.

Opus 4.6 is significantly more accurate at finding specific information within huge files.

In professional tests for finance and law, it has outperformed both GPT-5.2 and its own predecessor by a wide margin.

Looks like agentic-AI is arriving much sooner than market has anticipated.

Fall of Magnificent 7.

Perhaps the biggest repercussion as a result of the panic run on Thursday, was the impact on the Magnificent 7 stocks. (see below)

“Luckily”by Fri, 6 Feb 2026 - all of them registered a historic reversal.

The Dow also crossed the 50,000 mark for the first time.

"Snapback" was largely attributed to coordinated efforts by Tech CEOs to reframe the narrative around Agentic AI. (see below)

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , CEO, Jensen Huang touted the selloff "the most illogical thing in the world"; argued AI uses existing software rather than replacing it.

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , CEO, Sundar Pichai dismissed "market hysteria" over Anthropic; labeled AI an "enabling tool" for existing platforms.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , CEO, Satya Nadella emphasized the "agentic shift" as a massive expansion of the addressable market for Azure.

Magnificent 7 - past month performances

Magnificent 7’s performance on last 2 days of the week.

Microsoft (MSFT):

• Biggest decliner among the group, falling -4.95%.

• Investors grew wary of its massive $37.5 billion quarterly AI spend and the potential for agentic AI to cannibalize its core Office 365 revenue.

• It managed to partial recover on Friday, gaining +1.90%, closing off the week at $401.14 /share.

• US market is still pricing the risk that agentic AI (like Anthropic's new tools) could automate away the need for many "per-seat" software licenses that MSFT relies on.

Alphabet (GOOGL):

• Slipped -0.8% during the session.

• However, it faced heavy scrutiny after revealing that 2026 capex could double to nearly $185 billion.

• Like AMZN, GOOGL closed Friday down -2.53% at $322.86. CEO Sundar Pichai's media tour failed to erase the fear that autonomous agents will eventually "kill the 10 blue links" of Search.

Amazon (AMZN):

• Fell -4.4% during regular hours and continued to slide in after-hours trading.

• This came about after it also announced a staggering $200 billion investment plan for data centers and chips.

• The cloud leader continued to dip on Friday, falling a further -5.55% closing at $210.32 /share.

• For the week, it fell a whooping -11.76%, making it the biggest loser of Mag 7 for the week.

Nvidia (NVDA):

• Initially, it held up better than software peers, falling by -1.33%.

• Ultimately, it closed the day down as the broader tech-heavy Nasdaq fell -1.6%.

• By Friday, the AI-chip leader recovered by +7.92%.

• For the week, it is still down by -0.93% - closing at $185.41.

Somehow, NVDA is still unable to shake off the circular-funding accusation thrown at it over its retracted $100 billion investment in OpenAI.

Meta, Apple, & Tesla:

• All 3 stocks experienced moderate losses of -0.18%, -0.21% and -2.17% respectively.

• This comes as part of a broader rotation into "value" sectors like Energy & Industrials.

Apple (AAPL).

• AAPL has become a defensive play within the group. It regained roughly +0.8% on Friday, finishing the week up +6.89% overall.

• Investors view AAPL’s "walled garden" as a safe harbor where agentic AI will be a feature AAPL control, rather than a threat that replaces them.

Meta Platform (META):

• Similarly, META continued to dip on Friday, falling a further -1.31% to close off the week at $661.46 /share.

• For the week, it is still down by -7.38%.

• Was the stock price affected by news of META new rounds of layoff as it pivots out of Metaverse and into Artificial intelligence ?

• The market has effectively ignored the "savings" of a few hundred million dollars in salary costs.

• The layoffs were viewed not as a sign of strength, but as a necessary.

• Similar to AMZN and GOOG recent demise, market is terrified by (a) the $100+ billion that Meta plans to spend on AI infrastructure and (b) the astronomical costs of the "Agentic AI" arms race

My viewpoints: (mine only)

For this week of 9 Feb 2026, I think the Magnificent 7 will experience a continued pullback or sideways consolidation.

This comes after the massive "AI spending scare" that erased nearly $1 trillion off market value last week.

AMZN & GOOG collective forecast of over $600 billion in 2026 capital expenditures (Capex) has spooked investors concerned about near-term profitability and shrinking free cash flow, just might continue this week, unless there is other distractions.

The Mag 7’s technical indicators show that it is still struggling against a "double-top" formation,; while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is still facing significant resistance as leadership rotates toward value and small-cap sectors.

While analysts have predicted a 65–70% probability of a short-term rebound exists due to resilient semiconductor demand, the broader sentiment remains fragile as markets punish any signs of "excessive" AI infrastructure spending.

With the group expecting to undergo a period of healthy “de-risking" rather than a swift recovery, is the window of opportunity to invest OR add to one’s Mag 7 holdings - opening again ?

If so, which Mag 7 will you bet your bottom dollar on ? AAPL or AMZN or GOOG or META or MSFT or NVDA or TSLA (even) ? Reveal yours and I will too. Ha, ha, ha.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• SoFi - Strong Q4 is a BUY despite pullback now.

• INTC - Return of the Titan in 2026 / 2027 ?

• LVMUY Slowdown, Time to Exit / Enter ?

• Do you think the Mag 7 will continue to recover this week ’?

• Do you think the Mag 7 will continue to pullback or trade sideways this week ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents