$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🚨❓📰 $AMZN Is the Bloodbath 🩸Over?
Post-Earnings Reversal or Sustained Pressure?
Amazon ended a 9-session decline, its longest since 2006, after an 18% slide erased $470 billion in market value! Q4’25 results: revenue $213 billion (+14% YoY, beat est.), AWS $35.6 billion (+24% YoY, fastest in 13 quarters), operating income $25 billion (beat est.), but EPS $1.95 (slight miss). Guidance flags $200 billion 2026 capex, primarily for AI infrastructure and AWS expansion, amid surging demand ~ backlog up 40% to $244 billion.
Fundamentally, AWS reacceleration positions Amazon for mid-20s% growth, driven by AI agents and custom silicon like Trainium3 (nearly fully committed by mid-2026). Advertising +22%, e-commerce resilient with 10-17% segment growth. Valuation at 27x trailing P/E and 13x EV/EBITDA, below 10-year averages, suggests undervaluation relative to peers; sum-of-parts implies $250+ per share. Risks: Elevated capex may yield negative FCF, requiring debt, amid broader hyperscaler AI spend ($650 billion total).
Oversold RSI below 30 historically preceded 60% rallies. Q1 outlook: revenue $173.5-178.5 billion (+11-15%), OI $16.5-21.5 billion. Consensus PT $282 signals 40% upside. Bottom forming, or capex overhang persists?
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