To The Moon

On the 2nd last day of July 2026, I have shared a post by $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ Adam Jonas warning that $SpaceX(SPCX)$ might fall to $100 per share. click here ! to read the post. When the post was out on 30 Jul 2026 , SPCX’s then share price was $113.50 /share. By the time Fri, 31 Jul 2026 was here, SPCX closed off the month, at $108.37; losing -4.52% from the post’s earlier stock price of $113.50. It wasn’t too long ago that the space technology company founded by the world's richest person, Musk, set the record for the largest IPO in history. For a moment, it became the most talked-about stock on the planet. Therefore, it came as a surprise when without any hints or warnings, the sizzle quickly fizzled. Over the last 7 weeks, SPCX's share price has plunged more than -40% from its peak in the immediate aftermath of its IPO. (see below) Many investors have wondered aloud whether the worst is over? Motely Fool’s writer, Keith Speights, don't think so. Instead, he predicts SPCX will sink further. Justified sell-off. Speights believe that the steep SPCX sell-off has been fully justified. for the simple reason that SPCX’s valuation was well above a realistic level from the get-go. Many retail investors jumped on the SPCX bandwagon without crunching the numbers. When a stock is priced for perfection (& beyond), any bump in the road usually causes a significant decline. SPCX has had 3 such bumps since its IPO: First bump happened, only days after its public listing on $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ when it announced the $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding leader Cursor. The deal diluted existing shares at an inopportune time as the stock began to experience initial post-IPO selling pressure. Second bump was when SPCX was forced to abort its planned Starship launch on 16 Jul 2026, after several engines failed. Starship, that is designed to transport humans and cargo into space, is viewed as a key growth driver for SpaceX. Third bump took place when SPCX finally launched Starship (along with its newest Starlink satellites), the company hit another snag. Although the launch was successful, the rocket booster exploded after impacting the water faster than expected during landing. More headwinds, more downsides ! SPCX will have more downside as it faces additional headwinds. The first headwind is possibly due on Tue, 04 Aug 2026. So soon ? That is when the company is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 results., after US stock market closing. Speights is not predicting that SPCS will post disappointing numbers. Rather, he believes investors will heavily scrutinize: Starlink subscriber growth. xAI revenue, free cash flow, and capital expenditures. Even a minor sign of a problem could cause the stock to tank. SPCX ownership structure. Before proceeding further, it is important to understand and know SPCX’s ownership structure. SPCX’s post-IPO ownership looks unusually concentrated: Musk remains the dominant holder. Next, a relatively small set of strategic & institutional owners, including Founders Fund, Fidelity, and Google/Alphabet, that sit alongside a larger “other” bucket. The structure matters because SPCX’s supply overhang is not one event but a series of staged unlocks, so the market has to digest new float in waves rather than all at once. Lockup Period Expiry - 3 Cycles. The biggest looming issue for SPCX, though, is the expiration of its lockup period: The 1st lockup window opens soon after its Q2 update on Thu, 06 Aug 2026. which will unlock 911.5 million shares owned by employees and early investors. If early investors start selling their shares, SPCX's stock price may fall. The 2nd lockup window will take place on Tue, 08 Dec 2026. The number of shares available for the general public to trade will grow from a small starting amount of around 639 million up to 5.33 billion shares. Post 08 Dec 2026, only 40% of SPCX's total shares will be active in the public market. Remaining 60% of all company shares, held by Musk & large institutional backers will be gradually unlock: The 3rd and final lockup window will take place between February 2027 - August 2027. In the middle of the window on 12 Jun 2027, will be Musk’s personal block of 6.4 billion shares completely unlocks. Price Targets - revision. Given the above possibility, below are several financial institutions price targets predictions based off SPCX’s Fri, 31 Jul 2026 closing price of $108.37: $Morningstar(MORN)$ estimated SPCX’s valuation of $780 billion represents a near -50% drop from recent market levels. This put their implied share price target around $58.00 per share. HSBC / Nicolas Cote-Colisson, expects SPCX to stay close to its current levels over the next 12 months, setting an implied target right near $108.00–$115.00 per share. Raymond James / Brian Gesuale holds the most optimistic outlook with an explicit $800.00 price target. This represents a 6.8x gain over current levels. Motley Fool / Keith Speight considers Wall Street’s forecasts have been overly optimistic and expects SPCX stock to fall further, potentially dropping another -20% (maximum) to around $150 - $160 per share, by end 2026. Speight suggests that buying now could generate gains for investors willing to tolerate near-term market volatility. Technical Analysis. To be able to clearly ‘see’ where SPCX is next heading, it is necessary to cut out the noises and focus on the numbers instead; although there is not much of data to accurately chart its immediate trajectory. For that I turned to SPCX’s technical analysis of (a) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 10-day and 20-day, (b) MACD and (c) RSI. (see above) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). As of Friday, SPCX stock price is trailing its SMAs of (a) 10-day ($115.50), (b) 20-day ($128.81) and (c) 30-day ($139.58). This implies a strong, short-term downtrend - showing heavy selling pressure, downward price stacking, and immediate overhead resistance. The immediate trajectory points to continued bearish momentum or weak consolidation near current lows. MACD. SPCX’s MACD line (-16.44) and Signal line (-17.46) lines are deep below the Zero line, indicating a strong overall downtrend. With the MACD line sitting above the Signal line with a positive divergence of 1.02, it shows early short-term bullish momentum, with SPCX trying to recover from recent lows. RSI. With SPCX’s 14-day RSI sitting at 32.55, it confirms that SPCX is approaching oversold territory. This aligns with SPCX’s MACD's indication of an emerging short-term relief bounce within a dominant long-term downtrend. Musk’s warnings. It does not help that short selling has heavily reinforced SPCX decline, surging to roughly 31% - 32% of its public float (over 195–200 million shares) as the stock dropped nearly -50% from its post-IPO peak of $225. In a feeble attempt to stem short selling of SPCX, Musk has (again) taken to media to warn short sellers that they would lose. (see below) However, short sellers did not make their decisions on a whim that's going to be unwound by a single vote of optimism, even though that vote is from the one person who knows the company best. And especially when the person has the most to gain from SPCX gaining ground instead of losing (afterall, Musk owns 42% of SPCX stock). These shorts are likely to stay in place at least until 4 Aug 2026, when SPCX's Q2 earnings are scheduled to be released. That will either vindicate them with a sizable setback for the stock or punish them with a reversal of this ticker's recent weakness. Ultimately, what investors care most is - can SPCX actually deliver steady earnings quarter after quarter. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. US market rally to Earnings or Econ data ? Tech NVDA, AMD, MU $1.6 Trillion Wipe Out. MS : SPCX is $15 from Zero AI value ! True ? Do you think SPCX’s Q2 2026 earnings will blow both investors & short sellers away ? Do you think SPCX stock price will fall when each lockup period expires ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents