Commodities or Cash? Overheat or Stagflation? Please Vote

Hey Tigers!

Hope you had a terrific day! ☀️

Special Greetings to femail investors on today🌸🌸

Recomend:

IWD: Women Investors in the Tiger Community(II)

IWD: Women Investors in the Tiger Community(I)

The below pretty clock shown here was created by Merrill Lynch.

The investment clock captures two important truths:

  • Capitalisteconomies follow a business cycle.
  • No sector of the economy, or asset or company exists in isolation.

In detail:  

Market under Reflation/ Reseesion Period with GDP ⬇️& CPI⬇️, Investors are encouraged to hold Government bonds >Cash> Stocks> Industrial Metals

Market under Recovery Period with GDP⬆️ & CPI⬇️, Investors are encouraged to hold Stocks > Energy Commodities > Corporate bonds > Cash 

Market under Overheating / Boom Period with GDP⬆️ & CPI⬆️, Investors are encouraged to hold Precious Metals > Stocks > Cash / High Yields Bonds

Market under Stagflation Period withGDP⬇️& CPI⬆️, Investors are encouraged to hold Cash > Soft Commodities / Inflation-Linked Bonds > Stocks

The following image shows how the different sectors or assets do well at different points in the business cycle:

What's your opinion on where the stock market stages now? Overheating or Stagflation? What's your investing strategies?

Volatile markets? Fret not! We have a solution to your woes

ADM vs. BG, How to bet on rising agricultural commodities?

🚀🚀Top Investing Opportunities Under War & High Inflation Market

Leave your opinions in the comment!

You may be rewarded with Tiger Coins💸💸💸

Don't forget I am the richest tiger in this community😎😎

# Macro Trend

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

  • Top
  • Latest
  • MHh
    ·2022-03-08
    May go into stagflation if the war drags on? But if investment horizon is long, continue to buy good stocks especially when it is at a discount now
    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • DiAngelReplying toMHh
      THanks for invite
      2022-03-08
      Reply
      Report
    • MHhReplying toDiAngel
      [Happy]
      2022-03-08
      Reply
      Report
    • doubleZReplying toMHh
      Definitely not cash. So i go for commodities now.
      2022-03-08
      Reply
      Report
    View more 10 comments
  • Wayneqq
    ·2022-03-08
    The market has never been healthy since the time the fed started QE.. because there is too much imbalance in the system.. if the fed keep printing and pumping up the system.. it will get worse
    Reply
    Report
  • KingWQ
    ·2022-03-08
    cash
    Reply
    Report
  • 达人物语系列
    ·2022-03-08
    Sometimes women investors are smarter than men investors.
    Reply
    Report
  • Alberto8
    ·2022-03-09
    [Miser]
    Reply
    Report
  • koolgal
    ·2022-03-09

    The latest news today that the US is imposing a ban on Russian oil is going to exert greater pressure on escalating oil prices.  OPEC members are also not increasing their oil production despite US calls to do so.

    This will almost certainly lead to Stagflation!  Runaway Inflation with the economy slowing down. 

    The best way to get through this situation is through diversification into different classes of assets including stocks, properties, gold, bonds and cryptocurrencies.  Also to invest in quality stocks like Apple and Microsoft which will reap bumper rewards long term.

    Hopefully a peace treaty can be negotiated as soon as possible to avert a humanitarian crisis and devastation in world economies. 🙏🙏🙏

    @MillionaireTiger  Commodities or Cash?

    @TigerStars  

    Reply
    Report
    Fold Replies
    • koolgalReplying totklew
      My pleasure
      2022-03-10
      Reply
      Report
    • koolgalReplying tojazzyco
      Thanks for sharing
      2022-03-09
      Reply
      Report
    • koolgalReplying toHH浩
      The oil and agriculture producers
      2022-03-09
      Reply
      Report
    View more 7 comments
  • surfer guy
    ·2022-03-11

    As quarterly trend shows both increasing GDP and CPI (last read 7% and 7.9% respectively, highest in 40-years). US economy is deemed Overheating and prompted the FED rate hikes plan. The Russia-Ukraine conflict throws a ‘curve ball’, disrupts supply chain, causes skyrocketing commodities price and exacerbates high CPI. GDP will inadvertently slow with eroded consumer spending and business growth. Even IMF now cut global GDP forecast by 1.5%, and US might just tilt towards Stagflation. Gold and energy sector using ‌$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$  ‌‌$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$  ‌would be my investment of choice but I am prepared to take profit to hold cash, and rotate to more defensive Utilities and Healthcare ‌$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$  ‌‌$Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$  ‌‌when Markets and Economy go south. 

    Reply
    Report
  • muiee
    ·2022-03-11

    Recent correction based on TA could mean Markets have already topped in Jan 2022, and we are entering early bear? Economic cycle which lags Markets showed it could be overheating and peaking soon, evidenced by very high but slowing increase in GDP and CPI. Given this backdrop (based on the cycle diagram) it would be too late to invest in Energy and Precious Metals as they are near or have peaked. Consumer staples, Healthcare and Utilities ‌$Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP)$  ‌‌$Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$  ‌‌$Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$  ‌might be better bets to trades. Given current 24/7 news cycles and algos dominated trading environment, expect large and fast up and down swings, and money can be made, and lost quickly. So have to nimbly take profits, respect stops and size positions smaller, to minimise incurring large losses

    Reply
    Report
  • 苗派
    ·2022-03-10
    Nice infographic 👍 Thanks for sharing.
    Accumulate green stock, reduce tech stock, hedge with gold & commodity, buy dollar. Pure speculate do not follow 😬
    Reply
    Report
  • bwjx
    ·2022-03-09
    Leave more cash for emergency funds and buying the dip. In period of uncertainty, should diversify into less risky assets e.g. bonds. Not sure if crypto is good alternative though. [Happy]
    Reply
    Report
  • Lynn098
    ·2022-03-10
    Commodities is what I will opt for. However, if oil rises to USD300, the world will likely go into a recession and I will hold cash
    Reply
    Report
  • traderray
    ·2022-03-10
    wtv but not cash. cash in an inflationary setting is terrible. some would say that cash is better than equity because equity is losing value. that is only true if you can time the market to reenter
    Reply
    Report
  • Pluto891
    ·2022-03-09
    Most retail investors has no idea about or access to such cycle analysis. N it is difficult to determine which biz cycle we are at. So the bottom line is ignore the cycle. Just buy good companies.
    Reply
    Report
  • SG 88
    ·2022-03-09
    Stock Market overheated in near term simply b'cos of Macro economic factors (as we all know). Knowing company's durable competitive advantage would give more clarify to at low hold till dust is out🤔
    Reply
    Report
  • Eng22
    ·2022-03-10
    Commodities is hot. Yday retrace a bit. Be careful to do within means. Do not be using margin overly.
    Reply
    Report
  • RoaringTiger
    ·2022-03-10
    The risk for recession is higher than before and stagflation may be on the table. Best to hold on to cash for now and ensure my portfolio is well balanced across different assets and diversified.
    Reply
    Report
  • JLKang
    ·2022-03-09
    With oil and gold leading now,  recession should be coming. Can start switching to consumer staple and utilities then. Focus on commodities now
    Reply
    Report
  • pekss
    ·2022-03-10
    We’re in stagflation with surging inflation & rising interests that dampen global economy growth,which is not helped by geopolitical tensions, sanctions,supply chain disruptions & trade protectionism
    Reply
    Report
  • hiiiinvestor
    ·2022-03-10
    Nice info
    Reply
    Report
  • KwLau
    ·2022-03-10
    Nothing to worry with a balanced portfolio in any market.
    Reply
    Report