Analyst Questions Apple's Production News; Will Apple Continue to Dip?
AAPL once fell 4% to $144. Later, after the broader market was lifted by BoE intervention, AAPL closed by dipping 1%. The sudden plunge was prompted by media reportss of iPhone production cuts.
1. What happened to Apple?
It was said that $Apple(AAPL)$ told suppliers to "curtail efforts to increase assembly of its flagship iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year".
Investment bank Jefferies pointed out that
Apple's previously rumored plan to increase production of the iPhone 14 by 6 million units has been called off, and this year's stockpile will remain at around 90 million units.
Tiger Note: the bubble of production increase was burst. Apple’s production would remain as the same as the last year.
2. Is this a big bearish factor?
Leading Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo questioned the news
Ming-Chi Kuo twittered that
Rumored Apple ditching iPhone production increase sounds a little bit weird to me.
Tiger note:
- Ming-Chi Kuo believed the production increase before was fake news. On this basis, Apple neither increased or cut production of iPhone 14.
- However, he estimated the shipment of iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max will increase by about 10%.
3. Institutions’ take and target price of AAPL
a: Samik Chatterjee, J.P. Morgan: Overweight. $200.
we find our volume expectations relatively unchanged compared to our prior estimates, albeit with a better mix benefiting pricing.
b: Sharon Shih, Morgan Stanley: Overweight. $180.
The news report is consistent with our estimates that total iPhone 14 builds will be at around 90mn units in 2H22 with 14 Pro/Pro Max % trending up to 57%, vs. consensus at 90-95mn units.
c: Amit Daryanani, Evercore: Outperform. $190
The implication is now that AAPL will aim to produce ~90M units of the iPhone 14 through H2:22, largely in-line with expectations from a few months back.
d: Daniel Ives, Wedbush: Outperform. $220.
Our positive thesis on Apple remains unchanged and we are not wavering in our view the iPhone 14 Pro demand is robust and this will enable Apple to power through near-term macro headwinds much better than feared by the Street.
Tiger Note: Analysts' consensus of Apple's shipment is 90M. Their target prices are all above the current prices
4. Trading Suggestions
$Apple(AAPL)$is a good choice of "Sell Put".
Sell put is a good choice during the market plunge.
- A short put means you are bullish on a stock and you earn the option premium.
- However, you should be aware of the risk of buying the stock at the strike price if the stock falls below the striking price. (important to have sufficient margin)
Bottom Line
It is still early in the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will remain critical in determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle.
Do you think this news will continue to impact Apple in Oct.?
Do you think market rally will disconnect with Apple's performance or not?
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In fact, I'm happy with all these 'negativity' about Apple as this means further decline in its stock prices. I'm waiting to purchase in tranches once it goes below to my desired price tag.
@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger