The Anticipation is Killing Me
The last two days were green with $S&P 500(.SPX)$Bullishbouncing off key support 3900 like a trampoline.
Not even a moment's hesitation before rallying again SPX? [Helpless]
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$followed suit, rebounding from similar support of ~11454.
Looking at SPX, there's a high chance of the index ranging between support and resistance for the next two weeks till Fed announces Sep's rate hike. 75 basis points I presume? [Doubt]
- SPX next resistance at 4108
- NASDAQ next resistance at 12125
SPX price-to-earnings is at 20x now (2nd plot). I take this as fair value in our current macro environment.
Are bargain hunters coming in because Sep's CPI data is forecasted to come down? I have not read the news but I see that oil price is at $84 USD and the downtrend is still in tact. See last plot.
This bodes well for a further drop in energy prices globally. CPI data encompasses more than energy costs, but at least a major component is "tamed" for the last few months.
If we expect a drop in CPI for Sep plus a rate hike of 75bp, then it sounds like there's no more surprises coming up. All we need is the official news to break new highs.
In the meantime while we wait, this lateral movement is healthy for the market. It is not too euphoric, nor does it feel like despair when you monitor your portfolio.
Tiny nibbles into your investments would be wise, as we wait for confirmation from our "friend", Mr Powell.
@TigerStars@Tiger_chat@MillionaireTiger
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