To The Moon

The overall direction of the market is still positive, but it will be less positive this week. One reason is that U.S. stocks will be closed for Easter Friday. Another reason is that large options on weighted stocks prefer to hedge against time loss or gain time value recently. For example, Ali's sell call order introduced yesterday, as well as AMD's calendar strategy:

• sell $AMD 20230406 95.0 PUT$

• buy $AMD 20230414 95.0 PUT$

Of course, not without $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

• buy $TSLA 20230414 207.5 PUT$

On Friday, someone bought an at-the-money put short Tesla with an expiration date of April 14

And the heavyweight strategy with the transaction amount of more than 10 million:

• buy $TSLA 20231020 195.0 PUT$

• sell $TSLA 20231020 245.0 CALL$

If you want to know when Tesla will stop falling in the near future, refer to the one-legged put. Click to see if the options are closed, when they are closed and when Tesla stops falling.

Markets have been quiet recently, but Morgan Stanley analyst Kolanovic said on Monday it was the calm before the storm and expects the market to retest last year's lows in the coming months.

But I checked several risk indicators and haven't found any other risky bets. In addition to a suspected big order for dollar ETFs$UUP 20230519 28.0 CALL$

There are a few sectors that are prone to risk events: banks & property, dollars & government bonds, European markets. Tracking options movements in these six sectors provides insight into market risk appetite:

• $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$

• $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$

• $iShares US Real Estate ETF(IYR)$

• $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

• $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$

• $SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$

And measures of risk in a broader sense: $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

After the first quarter of shorting, you may realize that this year's short selling has been extremely severe: Silicon Valley Bank collapsed within 48 hours, regional banks' share prices collapsed, and European banks were implicated, prompting the government to intervene.

Although this is all in hindsight, I find that many bears are making unprecedented moves with extreme caution.

One is the time of choice. While some shorts chose to short the sector the day before and on the day of the Silicon Valley Bank breakout, the 50, 000 short options( $XLF 20230616 32.0 PUT$) were placed after the February FOMC meeting. If you were to speculate on his reasons for shorting, it would have to be that continued interest rate rises were putting pressure on the banking sector.

The second is the timing of the black Swan event. Silicon Valley Bank Bank picks to break out after Powell's hawkish speech and Credit Suisse picks to break out before ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech. You can't point to one institution as being responsible for the collapse of the banking sector. The bears have every reason to blame the media on officials like Powell and Lagarde, whose pressure to speak has created hypersensitivity.

I don't think these moves are unnecessary, quite the contrary, because shorting has been extremely serious this year, so they need to be covered. Not only is macro opinion feeding panic after big things happen, but regulators cannot directly target short-sellers as the source of the problem.

No one is naive enough to think that if one institution causes a 48-hour bank failure and a chain reaction sets in, it won't be held accountable?

This is the first quarter of the bloody lessons learned. It's no use shorting too early. When the big bear hiding corner, small bear don't rush out to catch the gun. For bulls, don't get paranoid, but watch out for big events and be sure to check options.

Of course, in addition to the six risk indicators mentioned above, foreign ETFs are also a good direction to check. This year will certainly be no less fraught with geopolitical risk.

Above is the short Q1 summary and feelings. Update later if there are iterations.