$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ The US stock market capitalization to GDP ratio has reached an impressive 187%. The ratio has increased by ~40% in just 2 years but is still below the ~199% record from 2021. Nominally, the total US stock market cap is near its all-time high of $53 trillion. To put this into perspective, the global stock market cap to GDP ratio excluding the US is just 61%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 10% year to date and just 0.5% from its all-time record. The US market is in a league of its own.
$DJIA(.DJI)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ The Dow Jones Industrials index hits 40,000 points (a new milestone) today! +10,807,629% growth over the last 123+ years. There is always something to worry about in the world. Despite 2 World Wars, a Great Depression, Black Monday, Dot com crash, US subprime crisis, US government shutdowns, Trade wars, Global Pandemic, High Inflation etc... the Stock market will continue to rise over time... The Dow will hit 50,000, 100,000, 200,000 in time to come. Ignoring the worries of the world and staying invested over the long run is the 100% guaranteed way of getting rich. Unfortunately, the majority of investor
In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. (source Wikipedia) us gdp declined more than expected, showing that the economy cannot withstand more than a year of high interest rate environment. us economic war against china slowed china's gdp to 5% but the world's economy is interconnected. what goes around comes around. wars around the world going on because of an old us president at the helm. these wars are disrupting supply chains as shipping routes have to avoid middle east area. these stokes the fire of inflation.&nbs
The UK stock market has hit an intraday record high, lifted by hopes of interest rate cuts and easing geopolitical tensions, after setting a new closing high on Monday. The FTSE 100 index touched 8,076 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, surpassing a previous high of 8,047 reached in February 2023. (source:guardian) on the us side, fed officials are not confident inflation is coming down below their 2% target. historically, the fed is slow to increase interest rate when inflation is creeping up and slow to cut rates when market is already at risk of recession. $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$ pnf shows a new high. investors will most likely be buying up for fear of missing out. ukx is the leading indicator of the us market. the us market may not f
In response to rising inflation, the Federal Reserve implemented a two-pronged approach: * Interest Rate Hikes: The Fed raised the federal funds rate throughout 2022 and early 2023. This makes borrowing more expensive, which can slow economic activity and reduce inflation. * Balance Sheet Reduction: The Fed also began reducing its balance sheet by letting its holdings of Treasury bonds mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This reduces the money supply in circulation, putting downward pressure on inflation. oil above 80, middle east tensions, supply chain disruptions are causing us inflation to remain elevated. recently fed officials reiterate that there is no urgency to reduce fed rate. the market reaction last night was from green to red.
There isn't a clear-cut cause-and-effect relationship between epidemics and world wars. World Wars I and II, for instance, weren't direct consequences of widespread diseases. However, epidemics can play a role in creating conditions that make war more likely. Here's how: * Social unrest: Epidemics can cause widespread death, economic hardship, and social disruption. This can lead to anger and resentment, which can be exploited by leaders to push for war. * Weakened governments: Epidemics can strain government resources and make it difficult for them to maintain order. This can create a power vacuum that can be filled by extremist groups or foreign powers. * Competition for resources: If an epidemic creates scarcity of resources, like food or medical supplies, it can lead
tension in the middle east is sparking. oil is nearing 90. oil above 80 is destabilizing for stocks as this would mean inflation is resilient. $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ tracks the dow jones industrial average the 30 largest market cap companies. looking at its pnf, it shows a confirmation downtrend with 3 red circles. it might retrace to 367 where the previous high is. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ tracks the s&p500 - 500 largest market cap companies. it might follow the lead of the large caps and retrace to 480. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ tracks the small caps companies. small caps are the most sensit
After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough
small caps $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ lags behind large caps $SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$ . dia had already made a new all time high but small caps have yet to do so. small caps lag behind because of the high fed interest rate. the large caps are more able to coup with the high fed interest rate by economies of scale. iwm's pnf showed it is at resistance zone. breaking above this resistance zone would mean that sector rotation is in play. this would mean$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ would continue to make new highs until the small caps run out of steam. dia has potential to reach 420, 1.618 of Fibonacci retrac
*TA as of 11/3/24 Hi everyone, today I’ll be updating my TA for a pharmacy store chain: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) *I last charted WBA a long time ago. Consider this newsletter the latest forecast on WBA’s price action in the coming months. WBA is trading in a large falling wedge pattern, forming lower highs and (marginally lower) lows over the past 20 years. The most notable sign of reversal has appeared with the formation of a bullish divergence on the monthly chart. Moreover, the stock has corrected more than 78.6% from highs. On the weekly chart, I noticed a possible ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern forming at lows. Weekly also hit 22.70 in September 2023, which has been a reliable reversal level since 1968. On the daily chart, we can see the expansion
Hi everyone! Today I’ll be looking at a consumer goods company: Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) On the weekly chart, note that the stock has generally been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a healthy uptrend is in place. The stock has recently been consolidating in what appears to be a symmetrical triangle pattern before breaking out of it over the past month or so. Referencing the pre-COVID high of 128.09 as the swing high and the 2018 low of 70.73 as the swing low, I note that PG hit its 1.618 Fib extension at 163.54 in 2021, before undergoing a several-year-long correction pattern. A breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a minimum retest of prior ATHs at 165.35 (also note they overcut the 1.618 Fib extension, which is a common occurren
Hi everyone! Today we’ll look at a coffeehouse chain that everyone knows: Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) SBUX has been holding this pink trendline since the GFC in 2008, and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the stock has been consolidating in what appears to be a common occurrence in recent times - a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern with lower highs and higher lows. The stock moved from 70.35 to 115.48 from May 2022 to May 2023, forming a lower high in the wider pattern. It has since retraced about 50% of its move up, and is currently consolidating around the 92-93 area. Something incredibly interesting in SBUX’s chart is that you can see smaller consolidations within a larger consolidation pattern: Note the main consolidation (red), the medium
My Watchlist [65]: LYFT... Poised for a Return to 13.30s before 21.52?
*TA as of 26/2/24 Hi everyone! Here’s an update on a stock I covered specially for you all previously: Lyft, Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) Previously, I mentioned that LYFT would retest the 11.93 support level first, before a move higher. I was pleasantly surprised to see that this price action played out perfectly. We formed a lower high and some bullish divergence in the process. Post-ER, the stock rallied towards the 18.36 level, forming a higher high in the process. These are signs of a healthy uptrend. With recent price action in order, I noted that LYFT has been trading in an ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern. The formation of a third higher high came with the formation of a weak “equal-high” bearish divergence, that has cumulated in a pullback. Moving forward, I am expecting a ret
The Trust’s Portfolio consists of substantially all of the component common stocks that comprise the DJIA, which are weighted in accordance with the terms of the Trust Agreement.