Over the weekend, Iran once again claimed it had blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, after which the U.S. said the Oman shipping lane was still operating normally. For this kind of news about the strait being blockaded or reopened during negotiations, the market has already built up considerable immunity — it was basically fully priced in as soon as Asian markets opened last Monday. So investors need not be overly sensitive to such news; just watch the market's reaction after the open. The relatively important events this week are the Fed Chair's testimony and the release of the CPI data, on which the market will place its bets regarding rate-hike expectations. Although I don't think the Fed will make any major rate-hike move, the market may use the occasion to react ahead of time, causing a c

Following the US-Israeli operation that eliminated a key Iranian figure, the original playbook was to install a pro-American leader within Iran — an approach designed to serve US interests while minimizing the impact on financial markets. Venezuela served as a successful example of this strategy. However, over the past week, it has become clear that the Iran situation has not unfolded according to Washington's script. The new Iranian leadership is likely to remain non-pro-American, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz places Trump in a critically vulnerable position. If oil prices fail to retreat quickly ahead of the approaching midterm elections, the Republican Party could lose congressional seats, effectively crippling Trump's ability to govern in the second half of his term. Given t