To The Moon

Palestine and Israel exchanged hostages and held a short ceasefire for 4 days. It is not known whether the ceasefire will continue after that. If the geopolitical crisis escalates again, the risk aversion in the market will be boosted again. If the risk aversion escalates again, it may be an opportunity for gold to effectively break through 2000 points.Looking at gold from a technical point of viewWhether the gold price can effectively break through 2000 will be an important signal of whether the gold price will go bullish again. At present, the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and the interest rate is no longer bad news to suppress gold, which means that there is no additional bad news, and when the bullish news appears, the performance of gold price will be mor

After the CPI data of October was released in the United States, the the US Dollar Index fell sharply, and the three major stock indexes in the United States rose sharply. The market generally predicted that the Federal Reserve might start the process of cutting interest rates by the end of next year at the latest. According to historical performance, the Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on the global capital market during the rate hike, especially the US stock market, and will play a certain role in promoting the recovery of the capital market during the Fed's interest rate cut.In this way, it is easy to understand the strong short-term performance of US stocks, but from the perspective of the past year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is not satisfactory.Figure 1: Tre

#silver $SI  remains capped by its $24 call wall ( highest gamma) until dec23 expiration on Monday. Interests building up on strike $25 for Mar'24 contract. Below daily levels⬇️

Gold fell to correction in November after rising continuously, but silver, which had been tepid before, walked out of the bullish positive trend last week. The downward trend line resistance since the first quarter of this year is currently suppressing the attack of silver bulls. If the suppression can be successfully broken through, precious metals are expected to make greater progress, and gold is even expected to reach a new high at the end of this yearFrom the weekly chart of silver, we can see that the current silver price as a whole is still within a certain range of fluctuation in the past three years, and does not have the ability to soar. Nevertheless, the more standard flag-shaped finishing combined with the previous rebound momentum still gives people a feeling of gaining moment

The great appreciation of RMB last week shows that China-US relations have entered a thawing period, which has curbed the outflow of foreign capital and even enhanced the enthusiasm of foreign capital to enter China in the future. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is an important trend, which may be beneficial to the economies and stock markets of China and the United States continuously.First, if the economy continues to be favorable, the oil price is not pessimisticWhen the world's two major economies work together again, the expectation of economic recession will further decline. At this time, it is a potential positive for industrial products in the medium and long term. Therefore, oil prices should not be too pessimistic, and should not be changed by some recent declines. Of course,

Despite the tepid performance of the US Dollar Index in the past few weeks, this still cannot stop the yen's continued decline.In the 11 months from 2023 to the present, the yen closed up in only 2 months, This shows the determination and motivation of the market to sell yen. On the one hand, the lack of real safe-haven demand in the market makes the yen go unattended. On the other hand, more crucially, the expected central bank turn (ultra-loose to normal) has not appeared.Ueda Kazuo's latest speech in November made the trend of the yen even more worrying. He stated that it is necessary to cut interest rates cautiously, and relaxing ultra-loose monetary policy is a severe challenge. Earlier, the Bank of Japan challenged YCC policy again, and raising the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds to

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ Crude Oil closed below its 200D moving average this week for the first time since July 2023.It is said that seasonality, November always a bad month for oil price.ImageAre there any more specific reasons for the decline? (Supply or Demand?)Is the demand worry heave than geopolitics worry？What price will be the next place to go？ $72?Before we delve into the answers, below are some timelines showing how oil price changes relate to recessions. Feel free to add your comment on the recessions:1947–1948 – Oil prices rise sharply ($20 to $30). Recession 1949. Apr 1953–Jun 1953 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H53 – 1H54. Jan 1957–Apr 1957 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2

In the past week, the news was relatively calm, and most assets also showed a revised market trend. Among them, the US Dollar Index fell back after failing to hit the high level for the second time.At present, the probability of walking out of the second leg is increasing.In the process, risky assets are expected to maintain a good momentum, but the US dollar will eventually find the bottom and show strength again.The sharp decline of US dollar in the Candlestick Chart is accompanied by the latest non-farm data, and the superposition of technical and news makes the short-term break more effective. On the weekly chart, it is obvious that the Concealing Swallow structure had come into being .The theoretical goal of double-top shape points at least below 104. At the current price and time spa

The high-risk period from August to October, which I has been emphasized to everyone, is once again perfectly verified. Just after October, the US stock index showed its biggest weekly rise this year. And this is the result of multiple good news resonances at time point. Therefore, it is considered that the highest risk period of US stock index has passed, and the follow-up is to find opportunities for callback intervention.There is no suspense in the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in November, and no matter how hawkish Powell's wording is, there will not be much room for the market. In addition, there may be an important economic event of the first China-US meeting in mid-November,Therefore, it is easy to understand the concentrated outbreak of market bulls. Last w

The Bank of Japan, which has always been a maverick, once again adjusted the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, further liberalized the original long-term interest rate ceiling, and set 1% as the reference line, which means that the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy may have an inflection point.Japan's outstanding economic development momentum is slowing down, and the drag of high inflation on household consumption and real estate is becoming more and more obvious, while the contribution of net exports is facing uncertainty with the slowdown of global economic growth. At present, the Bank of Japan is faced with a dilemma between stabilizing interest rates and protecting exchange rates. With the increase of the possibility of slowing down the US economy in the fourth quarter and the adju

The trajectory of US stocks last week is roughly the same as that predicted. Under the continuous pressure of star stocks, the stock index also fell synchronously. Although from a technical point of view, NVIDIA's head and shoulder break may mean further downward and partial filling behavior, thus dragging down the market to continue downward revision, some subtle news changes also reveal pessimistic optimism.Continuing the selling pressure brought by chip rumors in the previous two weeks, NVIDIA finally broke down last week. Whether this is the final and effective break is expected to be concluded this week. According to the situation of NASDAQ, the probability of breaking the position is quite high. According to the theoretical goal of the form standard, after the successful break, the d

The chart is supposed to say "Yuan per gram" but the picture is clear. Chinese gold demand is strong, with Shanghai Gold Exchange $Strong Global Entertainment, INc.(SGE)$ premium staying above 2.5% vs. historical normal of 0.5% to 1.0%. Chinese are looking for alternative investments to protect themselves from a slowing economy and weak real estate market. $Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited(CJEWY)$ $Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$ $Luk Fook Holdings International Ltd(LKFLF)$ $LUK FOOK HOLD(00590)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/BrianTycangco/status/1719273760858268096

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 450

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and tends to expand. Generally speaking, things have not developed in the direction of calming down the incident, and it is possible that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will develop into turmoil on the scale of the "Arab Spring" more than ten years ago, and the uncertainty of its impact on the world economy will become increasing. At present, the relatively good news is that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the United States will bring hope for the first meeting of two largest economies in the future, and the warming of U.S.-China Relations will bring important thrust to the development of the world economy. So what opportunities do these events bring to investment?First, the oil price is difficult to calm downIn the current world ene

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 's future is closely tied to the future of Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin the future of currency or the figment of human imagination? There are some who find the idea of creating money without a government to be ludicrous. These folks argue Bitcoin value is a figment of imagination. For this reason, they suggest Bitcoin will inevitably fail and Marathon with it.I agree with them but suggest this is the wrong question. It only takes a little thought to realize value of every currency is a figment of imagination. That value only exists when the currency is being used to buy and sell. Therefore all currencies will inevitably fail. The right question; Will Bitcoin or the US Dollar fail first?If you pay any attention to Washi

ENSUSD - AddingENSUSDT: ENSUSD - AddingBixleyENS has great potential. This theory is supported by a great RSI position and my current assessment of the market. I would like to see the up movement to make kind of a cup structure within the entire price range. I have tried to show this with the bars pattern tool.BTCUSD - Alternate Scenario UP!BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Alternate Scenario UP! A bullish scenario showing a bullflag forming above the middle of a major channel This could continue until the red line which is a resistance. This is contrary to my previous BTCUSD analysisXAUUSD $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ - Trying to Create Up ChannelXAUUSD: XAUUSD - Trying to Create Up ChannelGold has broken a resistance line that is dotted red and is looking for

Recently, the global financial market has experienced great fluctuations, and US stocks have turned downward again since mid-October, continuing the downward trend since the end of July. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index of the United States has dropped by 7.8% compared with the high set on July 27th, and the Nasdaq index, which is sensitive to monetary policy, has dropped by more than 9%.The U.S. economy also shows strong resilience, because the original high interest rate environment will obviously cool down the U.S. economy. However, due to the negative impact of fiscal expansion on liquidity contraction caused by quantitative tightening (QT) and credit contraction caused by high interest rates, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar has not converged significantly. Looking ahead to t

Gold touched $2000/oz resistance last Friday but has so far held most of its gains in a bullish fashion. It closed Wednesday at $1995/oz.  $Gold - Dec 2023(GC2312)$ Next Tuesday marks the monthly close.The monthly candle chart of Gold is below, with the resistance line at $2000. Gold has tested $2000/oz in seven of the past eight months.After many tests of resistance, we need a convincing monthly close to qualify as a breakout. Think of $2020/oz at a minimum. Gold-Monthly ChartThe $2000 level is also an important resistance on the weekly chart.Below, we plot the weekly candle chart with the equivalent to the 20-month and 40-month moving averages. Weekly resistance is at $2000 and $2025 to $2030. The wee

Fundamentals for oil are taking a back seat to the shifting winds of war. It’s war premium in, then war premium out, then war premium back in again. Oil has faded since Sunday night on expectations that Israel’s move on the Gaza Strip and Hamas was indefinitely postponed. A headline from the Wall Street Journal sent oil prices falling even harder that read,“Israel has agreed, for now, to a request from the U.S. to delay its expected ground invasion of Gaza.”Yet the headline did not tell the whole story. The rest of the story was that the reason for the delay was, “so the Pentagon can place air defenses in the region to protect U.S. troops.” Oil then really surged back after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a TV interview what the market should have known, and tha

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th

Palestine and Israel exchanged hostages and held a short ceasefire for 4 days. It is not known whether the ceasefire will continue after that. If the geopolitical crisis escalates again, the risk aversion in the market will be boosted again. If the risk aversion escalates again, it may be an opportunity for gold to effectively break through 2000 points.Looking at gold from a technical point of viewWhether the gold price can effectively break through 2000 will be an important signal of whether the gold price will go bullish again. At present, the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and the interest rate is no longer bad news to suppress gold, which means that there is no additional bad news, and when the bullish news appears, the performance of gold price will be mor

After the CPI data of October was released in the United States, the the US Dollar Index fell sharply, and the three major stock indexes in the United States rose sharply. The market generally predicted that the Federal Reserve might start the process of cutting interest rates by the end of next year at the latest. According to historical performance, the Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on the global capital market during the rate hike, especially the US stock market, and will play a certain role in promoting the recovery of the capital market during the Fed's interest rate cut.In this way, it is easy to understand the strong short-term performance of US stocks, but from the perspective of the past year, the performance of the S&P 500 index is not satisfactory.Figure 1: Tre

Gold fell to correction in November after rising continuously, but silver, which had been tepid before, walked out of the bullish positive trend last week. The downward trend line resistance since the first quarter of this year is currently suppressing the attack of silver bulls. If the suppression can be successfully broken through, precious metals are expected to make greater progress, and gold is even expected to reach a new high at the end of this yearFrom the weekly chart of silver, we can see that the current silver price as a whole is still within a certain range of fluctuation in the past three years, and does not have the ability to soar. Nevertheless, the more standard flag-shaped finishing combined with the previous rebound momentum still gives people a feeling of gaining moment

#silver $SI  remains capped by its $24 call wall ( highest gamma) until dec23 expiration on Monday. Interests building up on strike $25 for Mar'24 contract. Below daily levels⬇️

The great appreciation of RMB last week shows that China-US relations have entered a thawing period, which has curbed the outflow of foreign capital and even enhanced the enthusiasm of foreign capital to enter China in the future. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is an important trend, which may be beneficial to the economies and stock markets of China and the United States continuously.First, if the economy continues to be favorable, the oil price is not pessimisticWhen the world's two major economies work together again, the expectation of economic recession will further decline. At this time, it is a potential positive for industrial products in the medium and long term. Therefore, oil prices should not be too pessimistic, and should not be changed by some recent declines. Of course,

On November 3rd, the United States released the latest non-farm payrolls data, which showed that the non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in October, which is expected to be 180,000. The number of new jobs in September was revised down from 336,000 to 297,000, and the number of new jobs in October was only half of the number of new jobs in September, which was the second lowest since 2022.The number of new non-farm jobs slowed down beyond expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a high level since January 2022, which indicates that the hot American labor market began to cool down.The news came that the strong hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve might be restrained in the face of facts, the rate hike policy might be stopped, and even there was the possibility of lowering intere

Despite the tepid performance of the US Dollar Index in the past few weeks, this still cannot stop the yen's continued decline.In the 11 months from 2023 to the present, the yen closed up in only 2 months, This shows the determination and motivation of the market to sell yen. On the one hand, the lack of real safe-haven demand in the market makes the yen go unattended. On the other hand, more crucially, the expected central bank turn (ultra-loose to normal) has not appeared.Ueda Kazuo's latest speech in November made the trend of the yen even more worrying. He stated that it is necessary to cut interest rates cautiously, and relaxing ultra-loose monetary policy is a severe challenge. Earlier, the Bank of Japan challenged YCC policy again, and raising the yield of 10-year Japanese bonds to

The high-risk period from August to October, which I has been emphasized to everyone, is once again perfectly verified. Just after October, the US stock index showed its biggest weekly rise this year. And this is the result of multiple good news resonances at time point. Therefore, it is considered that the highest risk period of US stock index has passed, and the follow-up is to find opportunities for callback intervention.There is no suspense in the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in November, and no matter how hawkish Powell's wording is, there will not be much room for the market. In addition, there may be an important economic event of the first China-US meeting in mid-November,Therefore, it is easy to understand the concentrated outbreak of market bulls. Last w

In the past week, the news was relatively calm, and most assets also showed a revised market trend. Among them, the US Dollar Index fell back after failing to hit the high level for the second time.At present, the probability of walking out of the second leg is increasing.In the process, risky assets are expected to maintain a good momentum, but the US dollar will eventually find the bottom and show strength again.The sharp decline of US dollar in the Candlestick Chart is accompanied by the latest non-farm data, and the superposition of technical and news makes the short-term break more effective. On the weekly chart, it is obvious that the Concealing Swallow structure had come into being .The theoretical goal of double-top shape points at least below 104. At the current price and time spa

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and tends to expand. Generally speaking, things have not developed in the direction of calming down the incident, and it is possible that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will develop into turmoil on the scale of the "Arab Spring" more than ten years ago, and the uncertainty of its impact on the world economy will become increasing. At present, the relatively good news is that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the United States will bring hope for the first meeting of two largest economies in the future, and the warming of U.S.-China Relations will bring important thrust to the development of the world economy. So what opportunities do these events bring to investment?First, the oil price is difficult to calm downIn the current world ene

The Bank of Japan, which has always been a maverick, once again adjusted the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, further liberalized the original long-term interest rate ceiling, and set 1% as the reference line, which means that the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy may have an inflection point.Japan's outstanding economic development momentum is slowing down, and the drag of high inflation on household consumption and real estate is becoming more and more obvious, while the contribution of net exports is facing uncertainty with the slowdown of global economic growth. At present, the Bank of Japan is faced with a dilemma between stabilizing interest rates and protecting exchange rates. With the increase of the possibility of slowing down the US economy in the fourth quarter and the adju

The trajectory of US stocks last week is roughly the same as that predicted. Under the continuous pressure of star stocks, the stock index also fell synchronously. Although from a technical point of view, NVIDIA's head and shoulder break may mean further downward and partial filling behavior, thus dragging down the market to continue downward revision, some subtle news changes also reveal pessimistic optimism.Continuing the selling pressure brought by chip rumors in the previous two weeks, NVIDIA finally broke down last week. Whether this is the final and effective break is expected to be concluded this week. According to the situation of NASDAQ, the probability of breaking the position is quite high. According to the theoretical goal of the form standard, after the successful break, the d

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ Crude Oil closed below its 200D moving average this week for the first time since July 2023.It is said that seasonality, November always a bad month for oil price.ImageAre there any more specific reasons for the decline? (Supply or Demand?)Is the demand worry heave than geopolitics worry？What price will be the next place to go？ $72?Before we delve into the answers, below are some timelines showing how oil price changes relate to recessions. Feel free to add your comment on the recessions:1947–1948 – Oil prices rise sharply ($20 to $30). Recession 1949. Apr 1953–Jun 1953 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2H53 – 1H54. Jan 1957–Apr 1957 – Oil prices rise modestly, though rapidly. Recession 2

Recently, the global financial market has experienced great fluctuations, and US stocks have turned downward again since mid-October, continuing the downward trend since the end of July. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index of the United States has dropped by 7.8% compared with the high set on July 27th, and the Nasdaq index, which is sensitive to monetary policy, has dropped by more than 9%.The U.S. economy also shows strong resilience, because the original high interest rate environment will obviously cool down the U.S. economy. However, due to the negative impact of fiscal expansion on liquidity contraction caused by quantitative tightening (QT) and credit contraction caused by high interest rates, the liquidity of the U.S. dollar has not converged significantly. Looking ahead to t

图片The recent strong performance of gold $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ prices, which have broken through the key resistance level of $1,950 an ounce, has attracted the attention of a growing number of precious metals and alternative asset investors. In fact, with inflation continuing to run rampant, many investors are looking for a store of value that won't depreciate, including Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, an investor who has always had confidence in precious metals.In his view, the Fed is unlikely to continue tightening policy and will eventually expand quantitative easing (QE). The U.S. economy has been relying on quantitative easing and is falling back into recession, basically obliterates all the efforts already made by the Fed.

Last week's we mentioned that the continuous fermentation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has a similar impact on the financial market to the situation during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict last year, which is manifested in the fact that safe-haven assets continue to rise while risky assets are relatively weak, that is, the stock market is weak, while gold and crude oil are relatively strong (crude oil becomes a safe-haven asset as soon as the war comes out), So the current market logic is not new. With the "best efforts" of various governments, the Israeli offensive has been slightly delayed, but whether it will subside is still inconclusive, so the market trend next week is still closely related to the current news trend.First, the US Stock Market Decline May Not Be Over YetLast week

According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from

Fundamentals for oil are taking a back seat to the shifting winds of war. It’s war premium in, then war premium out, then war premium back in again. Oil has faded since Sunday night on expectations that Israel’s move on the Gaza Strip and Hamas was indefinitely postponed. A headline from the Wall Street Journal sent oil prices falling even harder that read,“Israel has agreed, for now, to a request from the U.S. to delay its expected ground invasion of Gaza.”Yet the headline did not tell the whole story. The rest of the story was that the reason for the delay was, “so the Pentagon can place air defenses in the region to protect U.S. troops.” Oil then really surged back after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a TV interview what the market should have known, and tha

In the past two weeks, the chaotic fighting mode among major assets in the financial market has not subsided. On the contrary, with the change of news, the traditional mode of risky assets and safe-haven assets dancing together has intensified. Among them, Nvidia, which was affected by Sino-US chip relations, was accidentally shot. The technical risk of breaking the position also brought greater downward pressure to the US stock index.In the middle of last week, the news about restricting the sale of high-end graphics cards came out, which not only made the domestic graphics card scalpers who had been silent for many years eager to move, but also made NVIDIA, a hot US AI concept stock in the first half of the year, fall continuously. Although the follow-up "rumor-dispelling" retail is not

The first chart below is the price change chart of American 10-year bond futures (ZN), and the other one is the price trend of American Nasdaq stock index futures (NQ) in one year.As of October 20th, the 10-year bond interest rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the late 1970s: 5%, when the Great Depression was caused by global inflation because of the energy crisis.Last month, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street investors shudder when it said at a news conference after the open market meeting that US interest rates might be higher and last longer.Obviously, the negative impact of high interest rates caused by inflation on the stock market is far from over. 2024 will be a more challenging year for interest rates and the stock market.Historical facts have proved th