To The Moon

At 2:00 pm Eastern Time on May 3, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00%-5.25% as scheduled, in line with expectations, announcing that this round of interest rate hike cycle is basically over.Every time the market uses the official announcement of the Fed to try to figure out the connotation of Powell's reply in the question session. The question on the 3rd is very transparent. The following are the main points of his reply:1) Future interest rate policy towards a "data dependent" approach;2) This meeting did not make a clear decision on whether to stop raising interest rates;3) More data is needed to see whether the Fed funds rate is sufficiently restrictive;4) More rate hikes are still possible if greater monetary policy constraints are required;5) It is too early to

Risk events came in European and American banks recently. Both the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank took immediate measures to deal with it. Although the market is questioning the methods appropriate, there are no obvious signs of system risk for now.Banking pressure increasedInterest rate hike in the past year has caused the problems of short-term borrowing and long-term mismatch in the banking industry to break out intensively. Recently, the capital outflow pressure of banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, is relatively high. However, from the overall situation, the pressure is still within the controllable range.According to th

Go over history and see what inflation does to economies. Inflation is linked to the fall of the biggest empires we know, literally. There’s plenty of examples of how destructive it is. I don’t know how this all plays out and I don’t think even the head of the Fed has a crystal clear picture. But they absolutely need to try and bring inflation down, even if that causes more pain, the alternative could be absolute collapse.They will only maintain or lower rates once they have data that supports it (and remember economic data has a lag). Economic data so far supports further hikes. SVB is a big deal and it will have big consequences, but we’ll start to see them on data in a few months

The Fed Interest Rate Decision Meeting will held on Feb 01, 2023 02:00PM ET, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET.Key points: 25bps Rate hike has a muchhigher probabilityMarch to pause the rate hikes may too earlyMore factors to affect stock, gold, oil and other assetsSource from reuters.com1. 25bps Rate hike has a much higher probabilityFed chair Jerome Powell has clearly stated that the central bank's battle against decades-high inflation is far from over, however. Financial markets still believe the central bank will hike the Fed funds target rate by another 25 basis points at the conclusion of wednesday's policy meeting. Th

Powell is never too bold.Feds Dec Minutes released (Click to view minutes of the meeting). In summary, FedsIs willing to slow the pace of tightening, but still focused on inflation, so the interest rate increasing remains.According to the Bloomberg Fed Minutes Sentiment Indicator, it is the most hawkish minutes since May.However, the market is not scared, even nort regarded as a "hawkish" report. It only fluctuated by 0.5% intra-day, and it should be closed up.Why US stock market so optimistic?First, the "hawkish" expectation has

Summary: Institutional Perspectives： Key economic data last week: Key focus on this week: Two points that the market is worring about? Institutional expectations of market: Tips on investment opportunities: The FED's interest rate resolution is getting closer, in addition to the pressure of PPI data higher than expected last week, investors put their chips in their pockets last week, and the three major US stock indexes plunged in the late afternoon.Regarding this week's rate hike resolution, many institutions believe that the FED will increase around 50 bps, According to the "FED Tool" of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of the FED rate hike by 50bps this month has risen to 77%.Institutio

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$  share price climbing 2.8%, EV charging company $ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$   rising 3.6%, and EV battery company $Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$   jumping 6.1%.  Investors are hoping that easing inflation will cause the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive with its interest rate hikes. There could be more short-term volatility from Nio, QuantumScape, and ChargePoint as investors try to determine where inflation is going and how the Fed will respond to it. 

The Market sold off heavily 2 days ago after Fed Chair Powell gave his FOMC speech. I summarise the key points The Fed will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy as well as the lags with which the policy affects the economy and inflation in determining the pace of future increases. - (They are well aware that there is a lag effect of their rate hikes on economic data and will pause/pivot when appropriate). Incoming data suggests that the terminal rate is going to be higher than expected. The final fed funds rate may be above 4.6% (what was expected) before a pause and reduction. Goldman Sachs predicts a final rate of 5% before rate cuts. The Fed notes it will be appropriate to slow the pace of increases as soon as the next meeting (Dec) or the one after that (Feb)

11032022 OTP Weekly UpdateOptions Trading Pilot, We review the QQQ and the Fed's rate hike along with Powell's commentary. We pick possible important ... From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ninYMgA_Jc

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, moving its target range to between 3.75% and 4%. The hike was widely expected, leaving analysts to focus on whatever clues the Fed might offer about its plans for the future.The big question is whether the Fed intends to reduce the size of its next interest rate hike in December, which will come on the heels of four increases of 75 basis points in a row stretching back to June. Many analysts expect the next increase to be reduced to 50 points, followed by either smaller increases or a pause. Tuesday’s statement from the Federal Open Market Committee gave them a glimmer of hope that this might just be how it plays out.“In determining the pace of future increases in the target range,” it said, “the Commit

Market Summary  Singapore shares closed higher on Wednesday (Nov 2) on late buying after spending all day underwater following overnight losses on Wall Street. Stronger-than-expected jobs data from the world’s largest economy dimmed some hope of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve at its latest meeting. The Straits Times Index (STI) advanced 10.63 points or 0.3 per cent to 3,141.13 to log its seventh straight day of gains. For much of the day however, it appeared as if its six-day rally had run out of steam as caution was thick in the air ahead of the Fed rate hike outcome. Japan posted losses, while most key bourses across the region from Hong Kong and China to Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea and Australia logged gains. Market players have “relied heavily” on US labour market figure

Chair Powell faces a communications challenge at briefing Fed may slow soon, but doesn’t want easy financial conditions The Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate increase with Chair Jerome Powell repeating his resolute message on inflation and opening the door to a downshift -- without necessarily pivoting yet. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range of 3.75 to 4%, the highest level since 2008 as the central bank extends its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s. The decision will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. No fresh Fed forecasts are released at this meeting. The central bank chief may emphasize policymakers r

Expected 75bps but seriously I prefer 50bps. [Grin] The reason if with 50bps, market will be bullish and my portfolio will see some green.... and if 75bps the market will behave fearful and my portfolio will see all red[Cry] [Facepalm] But after some though, I learn thatwarren Buffett said be greedy when others are fearful. warren Buffett also said: Don't let the bear market scare you away from investing in stocks. Focus on businesses with strong competitive advantages that are available at attractive valuations. If the business performs well, the stock will eventually perform well also. Do you agree?😉 @ElvisLHS@gras0n

Stocks rose Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered another widely expected 75 basis point rate hike and hinted at a possible shift in its tightening pace.Stocks pared back earlier losses following the Fed decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded surged 300 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite last traded 0.5% and 0.7% higher, respectively.The new statement hinted at a possible policy change, saying the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”The Fed implemented another widely expected 0.75 percentage point rate increase, its fourth hike in a row of that caliber, as it battles high inflation and signaled a po

WILL THE FED DO 75 | THE STOCK MARKET OPENS

20221102 Review and Prospect Today's speech by the chairman of the Federal Reserve has become the key to the market trend. Several key points: 1. The interest rate hike will continue, and the peak value may exceed expectations; 2. The pace of rate hikes may slow; 3. The U.S. economy is strong, and a strong dollar may challenge some countries; 4. Inflation remains severe, don't expect a return to the 2% target in the short term. The market responded with a rapid decline, which is a normal reaction. If pessimism spreads, it will end the rally, and the Nasdaq is likely to hit a new low. Therefore, it is a better choice to stay away from technology stocks in the near future. Pay attention to balance positions, continue our previous strategy, use options to short technology stocks such a

Fed approves 0.75-point hike to take rates to highest since 2008 and hints at change in policy ahead. The Federal Reserve, in a well-telegraphed move, raised its short-term borrowing rate by 0.75 percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the highest level since January 2008. The central bank’s new statement hinted at a potential change in how it will approach monetary policy to bring down inflation. However, stocks fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the idea that the Fed may be pausing soon though he said he expects a discussion at the next meeting or two about slowing the pace of tightening. Still, Powell reiterated that there may come a time to slow the pace of rate increases. Economists are hoping this is the much talked about “step-down” in policy that could see a rate inc

The Federal Reserve, in a well-telegraphed move, raised its short-term borrowing rate by 0.75 percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the highest level since January 2008. The central bank’s new statement hinted at a potential change in how it will approach monetary policy to bring down inflation. However, stocks fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the idea that the Fed may be pausing soon though he said he expects a discussion at the next meeting or two about slowing the pace of tightening. Still, Powell reiterated that there may come a time to slow the pace of rate increases. Economists are hoping this is the much talked about “step-down” in policy that could see a rate increase of half a point at the December meeting and then a few smaller hikes in 2023. Stocks initially r