To The Moon

Over the past years, the upside-down of U.S. Treasury bond yields has been the most recognized sign of economic recession in the market and an important indicator that is quite convincing. Therefore, whenever the two-year and ten-year treasury bond yield of the United States falls upside down, there are many voices saying that the economic recession is coming. However, the Federal Reserve previously took out a report saying that the upside-down of U.S. biennial and ten-year treasury bonds did not reflect any news of economic prospects. Everyone should pay more attention to the shorter-term interest rate curve. If the spread also turns negative, it means that the economic situation will become very bad, and the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates. At present, in addition to the i

Airbnb's in downtrend?Airbnb stock slipped in Tuesday’s extended session after Morgan Stanley moved to a Sell-equivalent rating.A team of analysts led by Brian Nowak called out, Decelerating supply growth” reflected in channel checks, an issue that comes at an inopportune time given inflationary impacts on consumers. He added that the bank’s research shows “occupancy headwinds and lower room night demand. Its stock price down 35% this year despite generating record revenues. The downtrend is caused in part by investors' general concern about rising interest rates, which can have an impact on growth companies by weighing on profitability.It is heading into 2023 with several challenges threatening to negatively impact its bookings.Days ago, 

What is an inverted yield curve? In short, when short term treasuries(2-years) gives higher yield than long term treasuries (10-years) This is unusual because longer term treasuries should carry higher risk become of the long time-line and therefore should give higher yields to compensate such risk taken by investors. Therefore when an inverted yield occurs there are implications which I will explain. What always follow after the yield curve inverted? Recession Historically, an inverted yield curve tells us there is a pending recession coming. Short term treasuries giving higher yield shows that investors are not optimistic about the outlook short term and are pouring into long term treasuries thus causing long term yield to fall. Since 1970 every yield curve that in

Came across a chart showing how unique 2022 is for investors, only two other years, one in 1931 and the other in 1969 resulted in both stocks and bonds having negative return. We came off a peculiar event in our history that is the pandamic now, where the FED step in and took extreme steps to greatly ease their monetary policy preventing a financial collapse of the world economy. Every decision has a cause and effect and the actions taken by the FED has resulted in many adverse effect and the major one being rampaging inflation we are seeing now. I just want to give a shoutout to my fellow investors to stay on course, not quitting and don't be disheartened if your portfolio is down this year. Let's take this opportunity to seek out great companies that has fallen to reasonable valuation

Santa rally while it lasts...biggest pains yet to come

New bull market

The market may rally after Jerome Powell speech in case the Fed confirms to decide to increase the interest rate at a slower rate :) 

With the job numbers coming in stronger than expected as of lately, what would the FED do? Will they change their decision to 75bps? Will they raise it aggressively to 100bps? Or will they remain at 50bps? My take will be discussed below. With job numbers way above 200,000 (stronger and higher than expected) and inflation as of the last reading at 7.7% (FED wants the number to be 2%), J Powell, chairman of the FED may take a second look at the rates. There are 2 things that he can do.  Number 1: first introduce a 50bps to let the market rally and rebound, this would effectively wipeout all their efforts of taming inflation for the past year, and then at the next meeting (in 2023) slap on a 75bps, to bring the markets back down again. Number 2: continue with ei

$Apple(AAPL)$  🙏🙏🙏

With China opening up. Prepare to Cheong!

The US markets are generally barcoding, staying about current levels awaiting for the next FED move on Dec 14th. Though analysts are expecting the FED to put on a 50 basis points hike, markets may move upwards as investors  see this as the start of easing of interest rate hikes. Not quite so I think as the coming PMI and CPI numbers may not be what analysts are expected to see. The 50bps may just be J Powel's idea of calming the markets whih may not work. Just sharimg my thoughts before the FED comes on.

Continue to DCA and invest for long term.

Just dca and hodl for long term

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bearish for s&p500 continues. DCA with cautious. Don't lumpsum in... DYODD... [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] [Great] 

K

MID 2023 BOTTOM

Frankly I don't think markets have bottomed. The problem at hand, inflation is still inherent and is still quite a long way from being neutralized. I would say his speech while offering relief, will only e temporary 

The S&P 500 is possibly reaching a pivoting point, where it could try to defeat the bears of 2022. A stronger than expected jobs report in nonfarm payrolls last Friday came in at +263,000 vs expected of 200,000, while unemployment at 3.7% vs expected 3.7%, with average hourly earnings (month-over-month) +0.6% vs +0.3% expected and average hourly earnings (year-over-year) +5.1% vs +4.6% expected. "A stronger-than-expected jobs report illustrates the wage problem that the Federal Reserve is facing," Independent Advisor Alliance Chief Investment Officer Chris Zaccarelli said in an emailed note. "Average hourly earnings continue to climb and that wage pressure, in conjunction with low unemployment, will keep inflationary pressures elevated." As the markets digested the jobs report, opening

What is Cboe Volatility Index or VIX?  The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), calculated by combining the weighted prices of the index's put and call options for the next 30 days In simpler terms  It attempts to measure the volatility or "fear index" of the S&P 500 will experience in the short term.  VIX value moves up implying increased investor fears and therefore likely signals that the market is falling and vice versa VIX value will move down implying investors are relatively "stress free" when the market is stable or advances. I do have to stress that even though VIX and S&P 500 are negatively correlated, t

Lets see. Market will still bull for a short term. The cpi data on 13th/14th dec will explains it all.