To The Moon

I expect only 1-2 rate cuts this year.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year. The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Will this end up as one of the best election years for stocks ever?

hope can reduce 3 times. If reduce the interest rate, should contribute to the share marketing also.

I doubt there's any rate cuts till after US election on 5 Nov unless the next FOMC meetings shows CPI is improving below 3.5% and Core inflation below 3.8%! May 1, June 12, July 31 and Sept 18 may be flat. Best scenario not to raise or cut to buy time for a bigger phenomenon to happen later. 6 Nov has all the reason to cut rate and depending on how much too to see what's to come after 🙏

Think the Fed will likely postpone any rate cuts to next year. Loosening any earlier risks negating all their effort over the past 2 years to contain inflation. Economic seems to be in decent condition and unemployment rate remains low. Little reason to cut early.

The Fed's efforts to lower inflation seem to have encountered not a small pit, but a real roadblock, and the market has to reflect on this year's interest rate cut forecasts. Recent report shows that the core inflation rate exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. The core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. The increase was the same as the previous month. Futures market prices show investors believe fewer than two rate cuts are likely this year. Although the dot plot shows a slim majority of Fed officials predicting three interest rate cuts this year, stagnant progress in reducing inflation may not only delay the timing of interest rate cuts, but may even limit the ability to cut interest rates. Even if the inflation rate can drop to a mor

so i expect rates in 2024 to stay stable or adjust only slightly, the possibility of two or three rate cuts is unlikelyalthough cpi data shows 3.5% , which might hint at inflation pressurethe fed's determination to maintain price stability can't be ignored, considering the current complexity of the economy and global market uncertainty, the fed is more likely to remain cautious and won't easily cut rates furthermorethe fed may focus more on long-term economic health rather than short-term market fluctuations $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$

The potential interest rate cut by the Fed in 2024, coupled with a hotter than expected CPI of 3.5%, presents a complex investment landscape.  While Goldman Sachs forecasts only two rate cuts in July and November, the discrepancy between actual and projected inflation may trigger market volatility.  I anticipate a short-term pullback in the S&P following the release of the hot inflation data. However, I remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook.  My target is to capitalize on market volatility by selectively investing in sectors resilient to rising inflation, such as consumer staples, utilities, and real estate investment trusts (REITs).  Additionally, I plan to hedge against potential downside risks through diversification and defensive positioning i

While CPI inflation is at 3.5%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2% 2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7% 3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2% 4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9% 6. Rent Inflation: 5.7% 7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0% 8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2% Both Core CPI and headline CPI came in hotter than expectations. This is FOURTH straight month with both readings being hotter than expected. We now have all major inflation metrics back on the rise and oil prices are nearly $90. Affordability is still getting worse. With inflation on the rise, rate cuts are becoming even less likely. It's incredible to think that just 4 months ago, markets priced in a chance of 8 rate cuts this year. The Fed's victory

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

Title: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Rising Inflation: Puppy's Naughty april Headline 🤔 How do you expect rate cuts in 2024 to unfold amidst the current economic climate? if support breaks down downtrend 50 days moving average $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$    As a finance student, Puppy's Naughty March headline presents a conundrum for monetary policy analysts. With Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 3.5%, surpassing estimates and reaching its highest point since September 2023, coupled with a Core CPI of 3.8% exceeding expectations, the market sentiment is understandably wary. The premarket trading witnessed a dive in broader market indices, while the swap market indicates a dwindling probabilit

Me thinks US dollar become strong becos of this news, is really don't understand.. now rate continue up, means us gov need to pay more interests on borrowing.. but they got no money!!! How??? they print more money to pay money!! How can this be sustain? this no good for US dollar to me!

US president Biden already said that the start time to reduce interest rate will be postponed, but confirmed that at least one time action before end of this year. 

Fed will not cut the rates in June

I think there will still be rate cuts this year. CPI aside, there must be pressure from POTUS to ensure the market doesn't crash, which denying rate cuts would surely do. Powell has "promised" to stay above politics but I'm not sure who is buying the snake oil. 

Oh, so no rate cut [What]  [What]  [What]  [Drowsy]  [Drowsy]  [Drowsy]  [OMG]  [OMG]  [OMG]  [Gosh]  [Gosh]  [Gosh]  goodness.... Have to stick to bonds, t-bills, etc, then I suppose... What y'all think [Thinking]  [Thinking]  [Thinking]   @koolgal  @GoodLife99  @Universe宇宙  @HelenJanet  @Shyon  

⛔️⛔️Fed's cut is off the table for June ⛔️⛔️    The experts wade in. Source Reuters ~ CAMERON DAWSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NEWEDGE WEALTH, NEW YORK "There is a high-risk cutting rates in June gets pushed out further. The probability is likely going to move lower after today's print, meaning that a June cut is less likely. It's important because June is the kind of last window for them to cut before the election. However, this data doesn't necessarily support them.” BEN VASKE, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ORION, OMAHA, NEBRASKA “While cuts are certainly still on the table for 2024, today’s data could be a key data point in pushing out pivot timing even further.” OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, NEW YORK “The report confirms the Fed’s concerns that

Commodities price up, crude oil price up. surely lead to more inflation in the coming months. Expect no rate cutes this year. Possibly rate hike if Middle East / Russia situation worsens leading to sharp increase in energy prices.

Let's pray cpi don't worsen in coming months 

T bill rates jumped.... 

$Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ has been on a tear lately, reaching new highs. While this might sound positive, it could foreshadow some bumps in the road for the stock market. Here’s why. Gold Futures Gold is often seen as a safe haven during economic uncertainty. Investors flock to gold when they're worried about stocks, bonds, or the overall health of the economy. So, a rising gold price could signal that investors are growing anxious. When gold goes up, it becomes a more attractive investment compared to stocks. This can entice investors to move money out of stocks and into gold, potentially dampening the stock market's momentum. It's important to remember that correlation doesn't always equal causation. Just because gold is rising doesn't guar

⛔️⛔️Fed's cut is off the table for June ⛔️⛔️    The experts wade in. Source Reuters ~ CAMERON DAWSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NEWEDGE WEALTH, NEW YORK "There is a high-risk cutting rates in June gets pushed out further. The probability is likely going to move lower after today's print, meaning that a June cut is less likely. It's important because June is the kind of last window for them to cut before the election. However, this data doesn't necessarily support them.” BEN VASKE, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ORION, OMAHA, NEBRASKA “While cuts are certainly still on the table for 2024, today’s data could be a key data point in pushing out pivot timing even further.” OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, NEW YORK “The report confirms the Fed’s concerns that

Now it's early April, and the eagerly anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, has yet to materialize. There have even been recent remarks from Fed officials suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates. In light of this, let's delve into some in-depth interpretation and analysis.One can reflect on the various optimistic statements in the financial markets since October last year. At that time, analysts from Goldman Sachs predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin an interest rate cut cycle in January of this year. While the consensus on Wall Street wasn't as extreme, there was also a belief that the Fed would initiate an interest rate cut cycle in March of this year.So why hasn't the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted to cut interest rates yet?1. Recentl

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

Credit:  Markets Insider The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the much-anticipated jobs report for March on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST. 🚩Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) provided a glimpse into PRIVATE SECTOR employment trends ahead of the BLS's report. Growth EXCEEDED expectations for February as private employers added 184,000 jobs last month, topping the forecasted growth of 148,000 jobs, ADP states. 🚩 There were also UNEXPECTED JOB INCREASES, particularly in the construction, financial services, and manufacturing sectors, according to Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist. ❤️🧡💛💚💙🩵💜🩷 March's Jobs Report - Economists' Expectations ❤️🧡💛💚💙🩵💜🩷 The consensus among 63 surveyed economists foresees a SURGE of 200,000 non-farm payrolls (NFP) in March 2024, marki

4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.

Once again on Tue, 12 Mar 2024, investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will reference, in its next interest rate decision: US February 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street forecast. According to Bloomberg, the monthly inflation report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is forecasted to show headline inflation of 3.1%, matching January's annual gain in prices. (see below) This will be the latest inflation report, before the Fed's next FOMC policy decision on next Wed, 20 Mar 2024. Investors are hopeful the central bank will cut interest rates sometime later this year. February 2024 Estimates. Over the prior month, core CPI is expected to rise +0.4%, a slight increase from January's +0.3% monthly increase. (see above) According to Bloo

Title: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Rising Inflation: Puppy's Naughty april Headline 🤔 How do you expect rate cuts in 2024 to unfold amidst the current economic climate? if support breaks down downtrend 50 days moving average $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$    As a finance student, Puppy's Naughty March headline presents a conundrum for monetary policy analysts. With Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 3.5%, surpassing estimates and reaching its highest point since September 2023, coupled with a Core CPI of 3.8% exceeding expectations, the market sentiment is understandably wary. The premarket trading witnessed a dive in broader market indices, while the swap market indicates a dwindling probabilit

Alt inflation headline reads out: Inflation running below Fed's 2% target on both core and headline CPI using more real-time shelter! Instead of 5.7% BLS shelter, avg of Apt List/Zillow: 1.1% Let's be careful from over emphasizing too hot headlines!@JeremyDSchwartz

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Three major indexes closed the choppy week lowerThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly hit intraday record highs but started to lose steam late morning. Nvidia shed $128 billion in market cap on Friday, erasing gains it had notched earlier in the session. The AI darling finished down more than 5% in its worst session since late May.All three major indexes finished the choppy week lower. The Dow posted its worst weekly performance since October, as Apple was down nearly 5% over the week, making it the worst performer in the 30-stock Dow.Fed chief Jerome Powell had few surprises in his congressional testimony, continuing to make the case that there's no reason to rush rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February, above forecasts, but sharp downside rev

*TA as of 3/4/24 Hi everyone! Today I’ll be covering a stock close to home: Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) SE was a pandemic darling with bags of promise as the stock received upgrade after upgrade. However, as the world returned to normalcy, it fell out of favour with investors. The breaking point was the time it broke its long-term trendline in May’22, as it continued to trend lower, to as low as 35 a share. From the weekly chart, it is apparent that it was trading in a falling wedge reversal pattern with lower highs and lower lows, albeit with a tightening range. It hit an inflexion point when it formed a bullish divergence pattern on the weekly, which has cumulated in a breakout from the rising wedge. On the daily chart, we can see that bearish divergence marked a short-term top, as the stoc

Oh no! Bad news. The consumer price index, a key inflation gage, rose 3.5% in March, higher than expectations and marking an acceleration for inflation. I believe the rate cut won't be so fast in 2024, probably towards the end of the year.  Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index. Energy rose 1.1% after increasing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected rate cut out to September. A measure of underlying US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month, heralding a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year. The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes fo

The distance with 125MA is a component of the Fear and Greed IndexIt represents a long-term average price of an index. When the current price is significantly above the 125MA, it suggests investors are feeling optimistic and potentially euphoric, pushing prices higher. Conversely, when the price is significantly below the 125MA, it might indicate investor fear or pessimism, potentially leading to selling and lower prices (one example in the chart: June 2022). The distance between the price and the 125MA helps gauge investor sentiment. A large distance (price far above or below the 125MA) can be a warning sign of potential market corrections. Knowing the prevailing sentiment (greedy or fearful) can help investors make informed decisions. For instance, during periods of greed (price well abo

The Fed's efforts to lower inflation seem to have encountered not a small pit, but a real roadblock, and the market has to reflect on this year's interest rate cut forecasts. Recent report shows that the core inflation rate exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. The core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. The increase was the same as the previous month. Futures market prices show investors believe fewer than two rate cuts are likely this year. Although the dot plot shows a slim majority of Fed officials predicting three interest rate cuts this year, stagnant progress in reducing inflation may not only delay the timing of interest rate cuts, but may even limit the ability to cut interest rates. Even if the inflation rate can drop to a mor

US CPI Preview Wedesday’s CPI data seems to be getting undue importance. The market is considering this CPI print to be the one that will put a dampener on the Fed cutting rates. Macro & Fundamental Analysis AyeshaTariq said: “I don’t think so. I think the market reacts to it, for sure, but I don’t think that this will deter the Fed’s determination the way people think it might. Headline inflation should come in higher tomorrow, with energy prices being the main source of the increase. The Fed has discussed time and again that food and energy are volatile categories and they don’t focus on it as much as core inflation. The core number should come in lower. The spike in Used Cars is set to reverse and the Apparel prices have been tracking lower as well. The key concerns, however, remain

There are two main factors contributing to high inflation right now: supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. Supply chain issues caused by the pandemic continue to cause problems, making it difficult and expensive to get goods to consumers. The war in Ukraine has also driven up energy and food prices, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of these commodities. oil above 80 is also causing market jitters. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is hovering, sometimes dipping due to profit taking. many are fomo, just in case the fed decides to cut rates though inflation remains high. $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is trying to make new highs as some fed officials sig

Global risk asset preferences rose in February, with markets such as BTC $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ continuing to rise, ignoring expected interest rate cuts and rising US treasury yields. The release of liquidity in the first quarter drove the performance of risk assets, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the performance of US tech stocks exceeding expectations. These factors were all supported by the ample liquidity in the US financial market. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ However, financial liquidity may shrink in the second quarter, which could lead to a redistribution of funds between stocks and bonds. The impact of the US liquidity tran

This hot CPI print is pushing the 10-year yield over 4.5%, which is not good for risk-on names -- I think we might start seeing a rotation back into tech names that are generating significant cash flow. Bullish for $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Public Holidays Singapore celebrates Eid al-Fitr (Hari Raya Puaa) on 10 Apr 2024 (Wed). There are no public holidays in Hong Kong, China and America in the coming week. Economic Calendar (08 Apr 2024) Notable Highlights The most watched data in the coming week from the economic calendar will be CPI. The CPI is also known as the inflation indicator. A forecast of 3.4% CPI year on year is on the cards. Should the figure turn out to be higher, the market is expected to turn bearish and vice versa. There will be updates of 10-year note auctions and 30-year bond auctions. These are part of the Federal Reserve funding the spending deficit. Initial jobless claims will also be a key macro data that the Federal Reserve will look into as they ponder the next interest rate decision Crude