To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the last week (19 Feb 2024) - Amazon, CRE & BYD More than 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck as of September 2023, according to a LendingClub report - CNBC Amazon founder Jeff Bezos sold around 12 million shares of the online retail and cloud services firm for roughly $2 billion - Reuters Shell has this week permanently closed its seven hydrogen refuelling stations for passenger cars in California, citing “supply complications and other external market factors”. - Hydrogen Insight For the full year, commercial real estate prices dropped 10.2%, accelerating their decline after small drops of less than one percent in 2022 and 2021. - Reuters Crimes can also be inflationary. I monitor their promise and their deliverables. I do not have any timeline or ex

Earnings Calendar (19 Feb 2024) This week has several earnings of interest. Without a doubt, many eyes will be upon the earnings of Nvidia. Other earnings of interest will include that of Walmart, Home Depot, Rivian, Moderna, Block and HSBC. Recent performance of Nvidia Nvidia has seen a stellar surge in its value from a year ago. The 52-week range is between 204.21 to 746.11. It is one of the biggest companies in the world with a market cap of $1.794T. With a TTM PE ratio of 96.18, is this too expensive or is this reasonable? Observations: There is a strong revenue growth over the last few years thanks to its products, a key hardware enabler for AI. Net income for TTM has reached $18.88B, compared to $4.368B from a year ago. Basic EPS has risen from 1.76 to 7.65 It seems to have a co

With a $280 billion government rescue plan announced by the authorities to steam the stock market rout and restored market confidence, the Chinese stock market has been buoyed by the prospect that the market may have bottomed out. Also in an attempt to revive the domestic electric vehicle industry, China has promised to help its EV makers expand overseas through overcoming foreign trade restrictions and improving their overseas compliance capabilities. At the same time, Jack Ma and Joe Tsai, the co-founders of Alibaba, have overtaken SoftBank to emerge as the e-commerce giant's top and second-largest shareholders respectively, after the duo took advantage of its earlier depressed share prices to aggressively scooped up its shares, as votes of their confidence over the recovery of the tech

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Michael Burry - Scion Asset Management Observations: Burry bought Chinese stocks (JD & BABA). Is this an implication of the future value of the China market or these 2 players from the e-commerce space? Burry added some of the Magnificent 7 into his portfolio with the likes of Alphabet and Amazon. At the same time, Burry has added Citigroup - which has been going through major layoffs recently. The other company of interest is Advance Auto Parts. Is there going to be greater demand for auto spares in the coming future? With the rising co

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust Observations: The sales are very interesting to me as they have exited some strong companies totally that include some members of the Magnificent 7, namely, a complete 100% exit of Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia. From the recent runs, the Q4 sales do seem to be too early. Jim Cramer names his 'Magnificent Seven' stocks that are the real deal The Magnificent 7 includes Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla & Alphabet (Google). On top of this, they seem to have exited complet

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Mr Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management Observations: There are no sales or purchases in Q4/2023 for Li Lu. Li is also known as one of the top proteges of the late Charlie Munger and thus, it is interesting to note that there are no major changes to the portfolio. However, I would be concerned about the holdings in the banking sector as I think that there could be more challenging days coming up starting with the end of the BTF Program in March 2024. Li Lu is also the one who introduced Berkshire to other Asian stocks like BYD and probably t

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Now. let us start with Mr Buffett (from Berkshire Hathaway). Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway Observations: Buffett continues to add Chevron and Occidental (oil & gas) into his portfolio. This implies that oil & gas are here to stay and these could be at good “attractive prices”. It is interesting to see the trimming of Apple holdings. Since it is (merely) 1.09% of its holdings, it could just be some profit-taking, and portfolio re-balancing. However, Buffett has sold all positions for D R Horton, Markel Group, StoneCo, and Globe

Bitcoin has led a significant rally in cryptocurrencies over the course of 2023 with a 160% price gain. The recent rally over the past week have also given increased interest to crypto investing. While many of us still do not invest into crypto-currency. I feel that we might want to understand how a small Bitcoin exposure could helps in a balanced multi asset portfolio. We have many options now to get our hands to Bitcoin related assets like stocks and ETFs. $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF(ARKB)$ Even though we saw Bitcoin staged an impressive c

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$  The global travel industry is rebounding, fueled by pent-up demand and digital adoption. Within this landscape, Trip.com a leading online travel platform, stands poised to capitalize on the upswing. But is it a sound investment opportunity for you? Let's delve into the company's strengths, potential risks, and what investors should consider. Riding the Travel Wave: Trip.com boasts impressive statistics: it holds the largest market share in China, operates globally across multiple platforms like Ctrip and Skyscanner, and reported strong Q4 2023 results, exceeding analyst expectations. This success hinges on several factors: * Dominant Presence in China: Trip.com enjoys a well-established brand and loyal customer

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  Should You Invest in Amazon: Amazon, the retail giant, has been making headlines this week with a mix of exciting announcements, strategic partnerships, and regulatory hiccups. This flurry of news paints a complex picture for potential investors, leaving them to wonder: is now the right time to buy into Amazon? On the Bright Side: * Stellar Q4 Earnings: Despite missing revenue expectations, Amazon reported strong growth in its cloud computing (AWS) and advertising businesses. AWS remains the global leader in cloud services, boasting consistent growth and profitability. The advertising segment also saw impressive gains, demonstrating the company's diversification beyond retail. * New Ventures and P

My investing muse Updates about layoffs news in the past week: McKinsey & Co. has warned about 3,000 of the firm’s consultants that their performance was unsatisfactory and will need to improve. - Fortune FRENCH digital payments company Worldline said on Wednesday (Feb 7) it would cut its global workforce by around 8 per cent as part of a cost reduction plan initially announced in October. - Business Times 40% of 2000 Singaporeans (polled) felt they were likely to lose their jobs in the next three months, compared to 25% in the same period last year. - NTUC. Aren't things looking good? Orsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer planned to become a leaner and more efficient organization: a reduction of 800 jobs worldwide, a pause for dividends and a retreat from markets in Nor

News and my thoughts from the last week (12 Feb 2024) Stock price movements after earnings depend on performance, expectations, and outlook. "I can be wrong" is a good paradigm. Same for investing, Same for life. The US has a shortfall in refinery capacity 18.1M bpd and consumes about 20.07M bpd as of EIA 2022. Supply shortage is possible. Oil market will face supply shortage by end of 2025, Occidental CEO says - CNBC Over 430,000 customers were without power across the state, according to a USA TODAY power outage tracker. - USA Today Businesses first go to China for their factory and they stay on for their customers. WSJ: Why the FAA Still Can’t Fix Boeing? FAA does not need to fix Boeing. Boeing needs to demonstrate due diligence and compliance for FAA's review. To afford the median-pri

Earnings Calendar (12 Feb 2024) There are a few earnings of interest for the coming week starting 12 Feb 2024 including Monday, Shopify, Occidental, Coinbase and Cisco. Let us look at Coinbase. Observations: Since 2019, there has been an increase in revenue. However, there is a steep drop in revenue for 2022. 2022 ended in an operating loss of $2.67B. Observations for TTM: TTM revenue has reached $2.78B TTM total expenses have fallen from $5.86B to $4.12B. There is an improvement in EPS from -11.81 to -3.20. However, the business continues to experience net loss. The stock has risen 138% from a year ago. Investing has recommended the stock as a “Strong Buy”. There is a strong crypto ETF interest in the market. From the article above, there are concerns about the impact of ETF

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY last week again! Are we ready to profit from the mother of all coins again? Let’s get ready to do so in the months ahead 🤩 Bitcoin rose 5% on Friday to one-month highs, powered by what analysts said was a flurry of buying ahead of April's halving event and as recent outflows from exchange-traded funds slowed. The price rose to a session peak of $47,705, the most since January, after the first U.S. listed spot bitcoin exchange traded products received regulatory approval. The world's largest cryptocurrency was last up 3.5% at $46,946, set for a rise of 10% this week, its most in a week since October. Ether was up 2.5% at $2,486. Bitcoin hit a two-year high just above $49,000 in January, but has since trended lower, under pres

Absolutely sell put,can get premium and bought stock why not

[Happy]  GLOBAL HEALTH

$PayPal(PYPL)$ This isn't a bank, PayPal is a fintech that permits customers to hold cash in supposedly segregated accounts. Yet, PayPal deliberately mismatches those payables due and a portion of customer funds go into corporate cash flow. For years, they maintained a multi billion dollar account payable shortfall of customer balances and have increased that mismatch every year since 2019. If every customer tried to remove 100% of their account credit balances at once, PayPal would need to immediately borrow the difference between accounts payable and accounts receivable from a bank to make good the difference, or alternatively, freeze withdrawals. It's right there, in the filings, should you choose to look.

$PayPal(PYPL)$ The change in reporting to include stock based compensation expense in non-GAAP numbers is the detail missed by many. I didn’t even notice it until others on the board pointed it out and then I listened to the call. I really liked what Alex had to say on the call. 9% revenue growth is solid. Cash flow machine. I like that they guided revenue 1 quarter out. 6-7% more top line growth expected. Who cares about the stock, it will catch up over time. Great opportunity to buy more at market open if it actually opens in the high 50s. Great quarter!

$PayPal(PYPL)$ PYPL beat earnings, provided conservative guidance and dropped 8% in the always mysterious after hours. Conservative guidance reduces the likelihood of bad news on future earnings. Conservatism results in the timely recognition of bad news and in the delayed recognition of difficult-to-verify good news. Good news will be recognized when stronger verification requirements have been met. This was a smart, transparent earnings call. Better than aggressive guidance not based on fact that could lead to bad news next quarter.

$PayPal(PYPL)$ I am super dissapointed to be honest, even if they did beat during the next quarter - this would mean nothing to the stock price as of poor guidance for the remainder of 2024. CEO pretty much told himself: "We are moving nowhere during 2024 and innovations takes time". Ok, clear, thanks bye, I wil come back next year.Bloodbath tomorrow, once people sober up and realize there is no meta-like story here.-8% is well deserved drop, welcome to being a bagholder if you entered in 60s.

Bitcoin has led a significant rally in cryptocurrencies over the course of 2023 with a 160% price gain. The recent rally over the past week have also given increased interest to crypto investing. While many of us still do not invest into crypto-currency. I feel that we might want to understand how a small Bitcoin exposure could helps in a balanced multi asset portfolio. We have many options now to get our hands to Bitcoin related assets like stocks and ETFs. $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF(ARKB)$ Even though we saw Bitcoin staged an impressive c

Thanks to Tiger for awarding the weekly top predictions for SPY last week again! Are we ready to profit from the mother of all coins again? Let’s get ready to do so in the months ahead 🤩 Bitcoin rose 5% on Friday to one-month highs, powered by what analysts said was a flurry of buying ahead of April's halving event and as recent outflows from exchange-traded funds slowed. The price rose to a session peak of $47,705, the most since January, after the first U.S. listed spot bitcoin exchange traded products received regulatory approval. The world's largest cryptocurrency was last up 3.5% at $46,946, set for a rise of 10% this week, its most in a week since October. Ether was up 2.5% at $2,486. Bitcoin hit a two-year high just above $49,000 in January, but has since trended lower, under pres

My investing muse Updates about layoffs news in the past week: McKinsey & Co. has warned about 3,000 of the firm’s consultants that their performance was unsatisfactory and will need to improve. - Fortune FRENCH digital payments company Worldline said on Wednesday (Feb 7) it would cut its global workforce by around 8 per cent as part of a cost reduction plan initially announced in October. - Business Times 40% of 2000 Singaporeans (polled) felt they were likely to lose their jobs in the next three months, compared to 25% in the same period last year. - NTUC. Aren't things looking good? Orsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer planned to become a leaner and more efficient organization: a reduction of 800 jobs worldwide, a pause for dividends and a retreat from markets in Nor

News and my thoughts from the last week (12 Feb 2024) Stock price movements after earnings depend on performance, expectations, and outlook. "I can be wrong" is a good paradigm. Same for investing, Same for life. The US has a shortfall in refinery capacity 18.1M bpd and consumes about 20.07M bpd as of EIA 2022. Supply shortage is possible. Oil market will face supply shortage by end of 2025, Occidental CEO says - CNBC Over 430,000 customers were without power across the state, according to a USA TODAY power outage tracker. - USA Today Businesses first go to China for their factory and they stay on for their customers. WSJ: Why the FAA Still Can’t Fix Boeing? FAA does not need to fix Boeing. Boeing needs to demonstrate due diligence and compliance for FAA's review. To afford the median-pri

Earnings Calendar (12 Feb 2024) There are a few earnings of interest for the coming week starting 12 Feb 2024 including Monday, Shopify, Occidental, Coinbase and Cisco. Let us look at Coinbase. Observations: Since 2019, there has been an increase in revenue. However, there is a steep drop in revenue for 2022. 2022 ended in an operating loss of $2.67B. Observations for TTM: TTM revenue has reached $2.78B TTM total expenses have fallen from $5.86B to $4.12B. There is an improvement in EPS from -11.81 to -3.20. However, the business continues to experience net loss. The stock has risen 138% from a year ago. Investing has recommended the stock as a “Strong Buy”. There is a strong crypto ETF interest in the market. From the article above, there are concerns about the impact of ETF

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  Should You Invest in Amazon: Amazon, the retail giant, has been making headlines this week with a mix of exciting announcements, strategic partnerships, and regulatory hiccups. This flurry of news paints a complex picture for potential investors, leaving them to wonder: is now the right time to buy into Amazon? On the Bright Side: * Stellar Q4 Earnings: Despite missing revenue expectations, Amazon reported strong growth in its cloud computing (AWS) and advertising businesses. AWS remains the global leader in cloud services, boasting consistent growth and profitability. The advertising segment also saw impressive gains, demonstrating the company's diversification beyond retail. * New Ventures and P

News and my thoughts from the last week (19 Feb 2024) - Amazon, CRE & BYD More than 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck as of September 2023, according to a LendingClub report - CNBC Amazon founder Jeff Bezos sold around 12 million shares of the online retail and cloud services firm for roughly $2 billion - Reuters Shell has this week permanently closed its seven hydrogen refuelling stations for passenger cars in California, citing “supply complications and other external market factors”. - Hydrogen Insight For the full year, commercial real estate prices dropped 10.2%, accelerating their decline after small drops of less than one percent in 2022 and 2021. - Reuters Crimes can also be inflationary. I monitor their promise and their deliverables. I do not have any timeline or ex

TigerGPT Answer: 【Forecast Data】 The financial forecast data for Snap Inc. this quarter includes the following: - Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.06 - Total Revenue: $1,375,199,000 - EBIT: -$314,116,050 Compared to the same period last year: - EPS has decreased by 57.14% (from $0.14 to $0.06). - Total Revenue has increased by 5.81% (from $1,299,735,000 to $1,375,199,000). - EBIT has decreased significantly from a positive $216,373,000 to a negative $314,116,050. The decrease in EPS and EBIT indicates a reduction in profitability, while the increase in revenue suggests growth in the company's sales or services. 【Quarterly Important News】 Key news over the past quarter includes: - Alphabet Inc.'s disappointing advertising revenue, which led to a premar

$Shopify(SHOP)$ the Canadian e-commerce leader, saw its stock rebound by 7% last week following a sharp decline. With its financial report due next week (February 13th), investors are eyeing it as a potential catalyst for further stock price gains.In 2023, Shopify focused on streamlining operations, shedding non-core assets, and doubling down on e-commerce growth. Cost-cutting measures are set to continue as the company aims to solidify its position as the premier online sales platform in 2024, catering not only to small and medium-sized businesses but also targeting larger enterprise clients.Shopify's strategic pivot is evident in its acquisition strategy. For every lost customer, it gains 38 enterprise-level clients, each contributing significan

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust Observations: The sales are very interesting to me as they have exited some strong companies totally that include some members of the Magnificent 7, namely, a complete 100% exit of Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia. From the recent runs, the Q4 sales do seem to be too early. Jim Cramer names his 'Magnificent Seven' stocks that are the real deal The Magnificent 7 includes Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla & Alphabet (Google). On top of this, they seem to have exited complet

With a $280 billion government rescue plan announced by the authorities to steam the stock market rout and restored market confidence, the Chinese stock market has been buoyed by the prospect that the market may have bottomed out. Also in an attempt to revive the domestic electric vehicle industry, China has promised to help its EV makers expand overseas through overcoming foreign trade restrictions and improving their overseas compliance capabilities. At the same time, Jack Ma and Joe Tsai, the co-founders of Alibaba, have overtaken SoftBank to emerge as the e-commerce giant's top and second-largest shareholders respectively, after the duo took advantage of its earlier depressed share prices to aggressively scooped up its shares, as votes of their confidence over the recovery of the tech

$Trip.com Group Limited(TCOM)$  The global travel industry is rebounding, fueled by pent-up demand and digital adoption. Within this landscape, Trip.com a leading online travel platform, stands poised to capitalize on the upswing. But is it a sound investment opportunity for you? Let's delve into the company's strengths, potential risks, and what investors should consider. Riding the Travel Wave: Trip.com boasts impressive statistics: it holds the largest market share in China, operates globally across multiple platforms like Ctrip and Skyscanner, and reported strong Q4 2023 results, exceeding analyst expectations. This success hinges on several factors: * Dominant Presence in China: Trip.com enjoys a well-established brand and loyal customer

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Michael Burry - Scion Asset Management Observations: Burry bought Chinese stocks (JD & BABA). Is this an implication of the future value of the China market or these 2 players from the e-commerce space? Burry added some of the Magnificent 7 into his portfolio with the likes of Alphabet and Amazon. At the same time, Burry has added Citigroup - which has been going through major layoffs recently. The other company of interest is Advance Auto Parts. Is there going to be greater demand for auto spares in the coming future? With the rising co

Earnings Calendar (19 Feb 2024) This week has several earnings of interest. Without a doubt, many eyes will be upon the earnings of Nvidia. Other earnings of interest will include that of Walmart, Home Depot, Rivian, Moderna, Block and HSBC. Recent performance of Nvidia Nvidia has seen a stellar surge in its value from a year ago. The 52-week range is between 204.21 to 746.11. It is one of the biggest companies in the world with a market cap of $1.794T. With a TTM PE ratio of 96.18, is this too expensive or is this reasonable? Observations: There is a strong revenue growth over the last few years thanks to its products, a key hardware enabler for AI. Net income for TTM has reached $18.88B, compared to $4.368B from a year ago. Basic EPS has risen from 1.76 to 7.65 It seems to have a co

Several options orders for earnings purposes that look more certain:$UBER 20240315 80.0 CALL$ 6,600 lots bought $PINS 20240216 42.5 CALL$ 21,900 lots bought (just hedge with snap) $AMZN 20240315 200.0 CALL$ 14,000 lots boughtAMD earnings report tomorrow, the current volume is the most double selling range: sell $AMD 20240209 185.0 CALL$ , sell $AMD 20240209 162.5 PUT$

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Now. let us start with Mr Buffett (from Berkshire Hathaway). Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway Observations: Buffett continues to add Chevron and Occidental (oil & gas) into his portfolio. This implies that oil & gas are here to stay and these could be at good “attractive prices”. It is interesting to see the trimming of Apple holdings. Since it is (merely) 1.09% of its holdings, it could just be some profit-taking, and portfolio re-balancing. However, Buffett has sold all positions for D R Horton, Markel Group, StoneCo, and Globe

After the release of its Q4 earnings report on Tuesday, $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ plummeted by 33% in after-hours trading.ProsAdvertising demand seems to be improving, with the company exceeding expectations in user growth, cash flow, and EPS;DAU slightly below 412 million, growing by 10% to reach 414 million.Operating cash increased from $1.25 billion to $1.65 billion, and free cash flow increased from $78 million to $111 million compared to last year.The company reduced its net loss for the quarter from $2.88 billion last year to $2.48 billion.ConsRevenue fell short of expectations: Although it grew by 5% year-on-year, saving the decline in the previous two quarters, it still did not meet the expected 6.3% growth rate, resulting in an ARPU of only $3.29,

13F reflects the holdings and I have highlighted some of the interesting activities (sales & purchases). As these took place in Q4/2023, it cannot be a timely tool but it helps to identify concerns and opportunities seen by these great investors. Mr Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management Observations: There are no sales or purchases in Q4/2023 for Li Lu. Li is also known as one of the top proteges of the late Charlie Munger and thus, it is interesting to note that there are no major changes to the portfolio. However, I would be concerned about the holdings in the banking sector as I think that there could be more challenging days coming up starting with the end of the BTF Program in March 2024. Li Lu is also the one who introduced Berkshire to other Asian stocks like BYD and probably t

$PayPal(PYPL)$ They are basically good from every fundamental point, they lose only customers that are not willing to pay few $ per transaction, but overall payment volume and $ per customer are up in the last 5Y. They are basically cleaning themselves(which is like 1% per Q in the face of losing customers, which is irrelevant). So yea, no matter what you say as long as they have strong fundamentals and fewer ppl with more cash spend through PYPL everything is going to be fine. AMEX has few customers compared to PYPL, V, MA, but are in a good position. I can live with few customers on PYPL platforms, but with deep pockets. Why bother crying over losing 1mil. customers per quarter, when these ppl leaving the platforms are

$PayPal(PYPL)$ This isn't a bank, PayPal is a fintech that permits customers to hold cash in supposedly segregated accounts. Yet, PayPal deliberately mismatches those payables due and a portion of customer funds go into corporate cash flow. For years, they maintained a multi billion dollar account payable shortfall of customer balances and have increased that mismatch every year since 2019. If every customer tried to remove 100% of their account credit balances at once, PayPal would need to immediately borrow the difference between accounts payable and accounts receivable from a bank to make good the difference, or alternatively, freeze withdrawals. It's right there, in the filings, should you choose to look.