To The Moon

I suspect there will be a 25 basis point cut as planned. CPI data is in line from the Nov report. Fed would not want to disrupt the plan and will continue status quo.  Only if inflation starts coming back next year, would Fed start delaying rate cuts or change plan. With the planned Dec rate cuts, it's a signal for the market to rally again. The Santa Claus rally.

Summary and Key Catalysts After Wall Street's record-breaking highs on November 11, the excitement quickly faded. European markets were the first to react negatively, adjusting downward due to the looming threat of stricter US tariffs as Donald Trump prepared to take office. US indices soon followed, concerned that the Federal Reserve might slow down future rate cuts, leading to increased market volatility. Fed Chair Powell's Remarks Stall Optimism Markets were already trending downward when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the Dallas Regional Chamber, signaling a more measured approach to monetary easing. Powell stated, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." His comments dampened expectations for aggressive rate cuts, driving

Yes, retracement is good opportunities for cherries picking!

The expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in December suggests that market participants are factoring in ongoing inflationary pressures or concerns over economic stability, which could lead to a period of elevated rates. In terms of the stock market, this could have a variety of effects, and the outlook largely depends on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Impact on the Stock Market: 1. Interest Rates and Valuations: Higher interest rates generally put downward pressure on stock valuations, particularly for growth stocks, since the cost of capital increases and future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. If the market was expecting a rate cut in December and that doesn't materialize, we could see a pullback, especially in sectors sensitive to intere

Market enters Overspeculative territory with Vaccine makers dragging down Nasdaq and SP500 With Robert F Kennedy Jr in charge of department of Health, market is over speculating potential negative impact to the vaccine makers and health industry. And when Jerome Powell signal slow rate cut coming next, the knee-jerk effect that we are seeing today goes against the long term trend of lower but slower rates. With big tech stocks all down, these market leaders are stil going to be leading the market as compared to small caps. Long term projection for 2025 is still going to benefit technology development as there is pinnacle when it comes to competition with China. Especially under then Trump Administration, losing out on tech to China will be really bad. With Elon onbroad, we are confident th

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   📈 $SPY RETESTING! • SPY is retesting an important trend line and we also have a bull gap right under. • If we gap down under the bull gap that is open there is a high change we will see a steeper pull back into the end of the year. • This is a scenario to have in the back of your mind and is important where every bull gap will act as support as we drop lower but creating an island top I believe we can see 570s before higher. • Bulls need to break 600 or chop continues. OPEX Friday. Good luck everyone!

December has not arrived yet, so the Federal Reserve's decision on a potential rate cut remains uncertain. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that there are still key economic reports to be released between now and December. Data on retail sales, consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, and housing market trends, among others, could influence the Fed's decision. If the data points to a significant slowdown in economic activity or if inflation cools more than expected, the case for a rate cut could strengthen. I think that if there is a rate cut, the cut is likely to be small. A small cut, such as 25 basis points, might signal caution. On the other hand, a larger cut, like 50 basis points, seems less likely unless there are significant signs of economic weakness, such as tightenin

Introduction: The Fed’s December Decision [USD]  U.S. stocks took a hit last Thursday following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks that there is no immediate need for rate cuts. This statement suggests that a rate cut in December, which many investors had hoped for, is unlikely. In the same breath, Powell's comments reinforced a cautious outlook for the economy, with the market bracing for potential volatility. What’s the Impact of No Rate Cut? Investors[ShakeHands]  had been anticipating a rate cut as a cushion against economic slowdowns. The idea of lowering interest rates is often seen as a method to stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper. With Powell signaling that there’s no rush to cut rates, market sentiment shifted, and stocks fell in response. Bu

Given Jerome Powell's recent statements, where he emphasized that the Federal Reserve is not in any rush to cut interest rates, coupled with the latest US employment data, it seems likely that there might be no rate cuts in December. This is a crucial factor to consider because it suggests that the Fed may maintain its current stance of high interest rates for a longer period, especially if the labor market remains resilient and inflation is still a concern. If there are no rate cuts in December, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks experience some downward pressure. Higher interest rates can make stocks less attractive as an investment because they increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and reduce corporate profitability. Additionally, higher rates can dampen consumer spending a

On November 14, $Walt Disney(DIS)$ reported its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter financial results, which exceeded market expectations overall and is gradually regaining growth momentum after a challenging period.Financial performance vs. expectationsSpecific financials are as follows:Total revenue: $22.57 billion, up 6% year-over-year, beating estimates of $22.35 billion;Adjusted EPS: $1.14, beating estimates of $1.10;Streaming business: revenue up 15 percent to $5.78 billion, operating profit of $321 millionMotion Picture: Earnings of $316 million, a turnaround from a year ago.Guidance: Adjusted EPS is expected to grow in the "high single digits" in 2025, beating market expectations of 4%, and earnings growth should reach double digits in 2026 and cont

The United States (US) central bank, The Federal Reserve (The Fed), again cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50-4.75% on Thursday US time or early Friday morning Indonesian time. This 25 bps cut is the second time the Fed has carried out this in two consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Previously, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps last September. Thus, the Fed's interest rate has been cut by 75 bps. As is known, the Fed raised interest rates by 525 bps from March 2022 to July 2023. They then held interest rates at the level of 5.25-5.50% in September 2023-August 2024 or more than a year In its statement, the Fed explained that it cut interest rates because it believed US inflation was moving towards its target range of 2%. "The unemployme

Let’s discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, and what I believe this could mean for our trading strategies and portfolios. As of October, the U.S. CPI data showed an increase to 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%, suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. Notably, the core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained steady at 3.3%. Given these developments, interest rate traders have revised their expectations for the December 18 Fed meeting, raising the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 80%, a marked shift from 58% earlier in the week. So, is another 25 bps cut on the horizon? And what might this mean for traders and investors as we close out the year? The Fed’s

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year, up slightly from September’s rate of 2.4%. This uptick reflects rising inflation, marking the first increase since early 2024, largely due to shelter costs, which rose by 4.9% and contributed significantly to the monthly CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3% annually. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2%, in line with recent trends. Food prices saw a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with food away from home climbing 3.8%. Energy prices, however, declined by 4.9% year-over-year, largely due to drops in fuel oil and gasoline prices, which fell by 20.8% and 12.2%, respectively. This deceleration in energy costs helped moderate the overall inflation rate despite the rising shel

In October 2024, the annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September, which had been the lowest rate since February 2021. This increase, aligning with market expectations, marked the first rise in inflation after seven months of steady or declining rates. The annual core CPI, which omits volatile items like food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%. This rate, matching a three-month high, was consistent with both the previous month's figures and market predictions.

Overall Market Overview In October 2024, the U.S. annual inflation rate saw a slight uptick, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase after seven months of either steady or declining inflation rates. Despite this, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain consistent. The market largely anticipated this uptick, and the overall market response may indicate a cautious optimism heading into the final quarter of 2024. The effects on different asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, should be considered by investors looking to benefit from this development. Inflation Impact on S&P 500 The rise in inflation may influence the broader equity markets, particularly the S&P 500

By US Tiger Research$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ U.S. stocks, $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ , and $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ all surged before pulling back, while the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to normalize.On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October CPI data, and as shown below, both headline and core CPI met expectations. The impact of a high base effect has mostly faded, meaning the toughest part of fighting inflation may be here. However, we remain optimistic that the downward trend in inflation will continue in the short term. More sensitive indicators like the New Tenant Rent Index (NTRI, which leads CPI by about two quarters) and A

$Cisco(CSCO)$ reported FY25 Q1 results after the U.S. stock market closed on Nov. 13, and while overall revenue was down year-over-year, it was still better than the market's expectations, driven primarily by AI demand.However, optimism about order growth was less than market expectations, so the company's 2025 guidance was revised up in time, still slightly below market expectations.CSCO was down 3% at one point after hours.Earnings Overview.Revenue of $13.84 billion in Q1 of FY25 ended October 26 was down about 6% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $13.77 billion, but an improvement from the 10% decline in the previous quarter.Excluding Splunk orders, product orders grew only 9% year-over-year.Earnings per share (EPS) came in

This has +ve impact. I would expect the market to turn +ve. But I do not expect a full bull run. For it to be more +ve would need to see the rate cut and that would give the final boost

By this time next year, I expect CPI to be running below 2%. ✅ Companies are out of pricing power. ✅ Rents are flat to falling (yet still show up as 4.8% annualized on CPI thanks to lagging methods). Below-trend inflation next year will enable: ✅ Bigger cuts ✅ QE Mark this.

Summary and Key Catalysts After Wall Street's record-breaking highs on November 11, the excitement quickly faded. European markets were the first to react negatively, adjusting downward due to the looming threat of stricter US tariffs as Donald Trump prepared to take office. US indices soon followed, concerned that the Federal Reserve might slow down future rate cuts, leading to increased market volatility. Fed Chair Powell's Remarks Stall Optimism Markets were already trending downward when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the Dallas Regional Chamber, signaling a more measured approach to monetary easing. Powell stated, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." His comments dampened expectations for aggressive rate cuts, driving

I suspect there will be a 25 basis point cut as planned. CPI data is in line from the Nov report. Fed would not want to disrupt the plan and will continue status quo.  Only if inflation starts coming back next year, would Fed start delaying rate cuts or change plan. With the planned Dec rate cuts, it's a signal for the market to rally again. The Santa Claus rally.

Introduction: The Fed’s December Decision [USD]  U.S. stocks took a hit last Thursday following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks that there is no immediate need for rate cuts. This statement suggests that a rate cut in December, which many investors had hoped for, is unlikely. In the same breath, Powell's comments reinforced a cautious outlook for the economy, with the market bracing for potential volatility. What’s the Impact of No Rate Cut? Investors[ShakeHands]  had been anticipating a rate cut as a cushion against economic slowdowns. The idea of lowering interest rates is often seen as a method to stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper. With Powell signaling that there’s no rush to cut rates, market sentiment shifted, and stocks fell in response. Bu

On November 14, $Walt Disney(DIS)$ reported its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter financial results, which exceeded market expectations overall and is gradually regaining growth momentum after a challenging period.Financial performance vs. expectationsSpecific financials are as follows:Total revenue: $22.57 billion, up 6% year-over-year, beating estimates of $22.35 billion;Adjusted EPS: $1.14, beating estimates of $1.10;Streaming business: revenue up 15 percent to $5.78 billion, operating profit of $321 millionMotion Picture: Earnings of $316 million, a turnaround from a year ago.Guidance: Adjusted EPS is expected to grow in the "high single digits" in 2025, beating market expectations of 4%, and earnings growth should reach double digits in 2026 and cont

The expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in December suggests that market participants are factoring in ongoing inflationary pressures or concerns over economic stability, which could lead to a period of elevated rates. In terms of the stock market, this could have a variety of effects, and the outlook largely depends on investor sentiment and the broader economic context. Impact on the Stock Market: 1. Interest Rates and Valuations: Higher interest rates generally put downward pressure on stock valuations, particularly for growth stocks, since the cost of capital increases and future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. If the market was expecting a rate cut in December and that doesn't materialize, we could see a pullback, especially in sectors sensitive to intere

December has not arrived yet, so the Federal Reserve's decision on a potential rate cut remains uncertain. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that there are still key economic reports to be released between now and December. Data on retail sales, consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, and housing market trends, among others, could influence the Fed's decision. If the data points to a significant slowdown in economic activity or if inflation cools more than expected, the case for a rate cut could strengthen. I think that if there is a rate cut, the cut is likely to be small. A small cut, such as 25 basis points, might signal caution. On the other hand, a larger cut, like 50 basis points, seems less likely unless there are significant signs of economic weakness, such as tightenin

By US Tiger Research$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ U.S. stocks, $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ , and $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ all surged before pulling back, while the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to normalize.On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October CPI data, and as shown below, both headline and core CPI met expectations. The impact of a high base effect has mostly faded, meaning the toughest part of fighting inflation may be here. However, we remain optimistic that the downward trend in inflation will continue in the short term. More sensitive indicators like the New Tenant Rent Index (NTRI, which leads CPI by about two quarters) and A

Let’s discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December, and what I believe this could mean for our trading strategies and portfolios. As of October, the U.S. CPI data showed an increase to 2.6% year-over-year from the previous 2.4%, suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. Notably, the core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—remained steady at 3.3%. Given these developments, interest rate traders have revised their expectations for the December 18 Fed meeting, raising the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 80%, a marked shift from 58% earlier in the week. So, is another 25 bps cut on the horizon? And what might this mean for traders and investors as we close out the year? The Fed’s

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year, up slightly from September’s rate of 2.4%. This uptick reflects rising inflation, marking the first increase since early 2024, largely due to shelter costs, which rose by 4.9% and contributed significantly to the monthly CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3% annually. Monthly inflation rose by 0.2%, in line with recent trends. Food prices saw a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with food away from home climbing 3.8%. Energy prices, however, declined by 4.9% year-over-year, largely due to drops in fuel oil and gasoline prices, which fell by 20.8% and 12.2%, respectively. This deceleration in energy costs helped moderate the overall inflation rate despite the rising shel

$Cisco(CSCO)$ reported FY25 Q1 results after the U.S. stock market closed on Nov. 13, and while overall revenue was down year-over-year, it was still better than the market's expectations, driven primarily by AI demand.However, optimism about order growth was less than market expectations, so the company's 2025 guidance was revised up in time, still slightly below market expectations.CSCO was down 3% at one point after hours.Earnings Overview.Revenue of $13.84 billion in Q1 of FY25 ended October 26 was down about 6% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations of $13.77 billion, but an improvement from the 10% decline in the previous quarter.Excluding Splunk orders, product orders grew only 9% year-over-year.Earnings per share (EPS) came in

Overall Market Overview In October 2024, the U.S. annual inflation rate saw a slight uptick, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase after seven months of either steady or declining inflation rates. Despite this, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, remained steady at 3.3%, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remain consistent. The market largely anticipated this uptick, and the overall market response may indicate a cautious optimism heading into the final quarter of 2024. The effects on different asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, should be considered by investors looking to benefit from this development. Inflation Impact on S&P 500 The rise in inflation may influence the broader equity markets, particularly the S&P 500

Given Jerome Powell's recent statements, where he emphasized that the Federal Reserve is not in any rush to cut interest rates, coupled with the latest US employment data, it seems likely that there might be no rate cuts in December. This is a crucial factor to consider because it suggests that the Fed may maintain its current stance of high interest rates for a longer period, especially if the labor market remains resilient and inflation is still a concern. If there are no rate cuts in December, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks experience some downward pressure. Higher interest rates can make stocks less attractive as an investment because they increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and reduce corporate profitability. Additionally, higher rates can dampen consumer spending a

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ released its Q2 2024 earnings before the bell on November 12, 2024 and jumped 10% on the dayOverall it was an excellent quarter of performance, with financial and operational metrics above expectations across the board, especially in the e-commerce and financial businesses.Shopee is at a critical point in its turnaround, Seamoney is making rapid progress in its BNPL business, and Garena's gaming business, while still going through a cycle, has been anticipated by the market for some time.Based on the current trend of margins (5% operating profit), the company is expected to achieve to reach a stable level of profitability sooner than expected, and with the PE expected to be under 30x in 2026, it has to be said that investor optimism is

Market enters Overspeculative territory with Vaccine makers dragging down Nasdaq and SP500 With Robert F Kennedy Jr in charge of department of Health, market is over speculating potential negative impact to the vaccine makers and health industry. And when Jerome Powell signal slow rate cut coming next, the knee-jerk effect that we are seeing today goes against the long term trend of lower but slower rates. With big tech stocks all down, these market leaders are stil going to be leading the market as compared to small caps. Long term projection for 2025 is still going to benefit technology development as there is pinnacle when it comes to competition with China. Especially under then Trump Administration, losing out on tech to China will be really bad. With Elon onbroad, we are confident th

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   📈 $SPY RETESTING! • SPY is retesting an important trend line and we also have a bull gap right under. • If we gap down under the bull gap that is open there is a high change we will see a steeper pull back into the end of the year. • This is a scenario to have in the back of your mind and is important where every bull gap will act as support as we drop lower but creating an island top I believe we can see 570s before higher. • Bulls need to break 600 or chop continues. OPEX Friday. Good luck everyone!

The United States (US) central bank, The Federal Reserve (The Fed), again cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50-4.75% on Thursday US time or early Friday morning Indonesian time. This 25 bps cut is the second time the Fed has carried out this in two consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Previously, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps last September. Thus, the Fed's interest rate has been cut by 75 bps. As is known, the Fed raised interest rates by 525 bps from March 2022 to July 2023. They then held interest rates at the level of 5.25-5.50% in September 2023-August 2024 or more than a year In its statement, the Fed explained that it cut interest rates because it believed US inflation was moving towards its target range of 2%. "The unemployme

$.SPX(.SPX)$ The recent S&P 500 rally, reaching around 6017, has pushed the market into overbought conditions, leading analysts to anticipate a possible pullback or consolidation before further advances. Currently, around 83% of stocks in the index are trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that historically signals a near-term correction, as observed in previous market peaks in 2023 and earlier. This overextension often leads to a healthy short-term pullback, which would help stabilize the market and set it up for sustained future growth. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has moved into overbought territory, signaling potential for a pullback, particularly as investor sentiment grows cautious with

Overview: Inflation Data Could Set the Tone for Market Dynamics The upcoming release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on November 13 is anticipated to be a key driver for the financial markets. With economists expecting an overall CPI increase to 2.6%, along with a steady core CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, investors are closely watching to see if this data will influence the Federal Reserve’s policy approach. Rising inflation could prompt the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, which may weigh on growth but could also provide new investment opportunities across asset classes. Market Segments: 1. Equities: Bracing for Volatility in a Changing Policy Landscape The equity markets face an uncertain environment. Historically, higher inflation and interest rate hikes have pre

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  🌐📉🌐 Will CPI Reboost or Rattle the Market? 🌐📉🌐 Kia ora Tiger traders!  The much-anticipated U.S. October CPI report is dropping soon, and all eyes are on how it will shape the markets. Last week, the S&P 500 touched 6017, only to pull back, leaving everyone wondering if this CPI data could light the fire for another rally—or accelerate the downturn. Let’s dive into the weeds, shall we? What’s Expected? The headline CPI is projected to edge up from 2.4% to 2.6%, with core CPI steady at 3.3%. On the surface, this seems like a mixed bag, but let’s break down why it’s worth watching closely: 1. Sticky Shelter Costs: Shelter remains the heavyweight in CPI, making up around 40% of the index. Yet, its impor