To The Moon

DLTR: Smart institutions know to avoid controversy in an election year.$Nvidia (NVDA)$Wednesday's opening flows are difficult to decipher, as shown in the chart - there's essentially only one trade type: stock + $NVDA 20241220 120.0 CALL$  + $NVDA 20241220 120.0 PUT$  across all expirations. For example:Stock$NVDA 20241220 120.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20241220 120.0 PUT$ We also saw stock + October straddles, November straddles, January straddles, February straddles, March straddles, a

A bold claim: Nvidia's trading dynamics will remain essentially unchanged after the September FOMC decision, be it a 25bps or 50bps rate hike.Coming out of the Mid-Autumn Festival break, rate hike expectations abruptly shifted, with 50bps becoming the higher probability scenario over 25bps. Historically, a 50bps hike was viewed as a negative catalyst that could drive Nvidia down towards $90.But the options market seems to disagree this time around.Looking at the three trading days since last Friday, including Monday and Tuesday this week, there haven't been any glaring shifts in Nvidia's open interest profiles that would align with a hawkish 50bps re-pricing.As the chart shows, this week's call open interest remains firmly elevated, with $120 strikes leading after stripping out a few outli

$Nvidia (NVDA)$An important adjustment impacting next week's expiration - open interest on the $NVDA 20240920 110.0 CALL has dropped to just 41,900 contracts remaining.This effectively raises Nvidia's upside call strike ceiling to $120 for next Friday's close, shifting the focus away from $110 to a broader $110-120 range.The question then becomes - at what level do funds look to roll their $113 covered call position that remains open?My $116 covered call is also still open. I closed the $NVDA 20240920 105.0 PUT$  overwrite and rolled it down to $105.That ultra-short-dated $119-126 call spread I noted yesterday has rolled again, closing and re-opening in the $124-130 range - sugge

$Nvidia (NVDA)$ traders are rolling their call spread positions too?Buying $NVDA 20241018 119.0 CALL$ Selling $NVDA 20241018 126.0 CALL$ Funds closed their $115-122 call spread opened on 9/9 and rolled it higher to the $119-126 strikes, likely after Nvidia gapped up 8% to $116.90 and achieved the initial upside target.However, the $113 covered call position from last week remains open. Based on open interest, we'll likely see another tug-of-war play out around the $110 level next week.$3x Semiconductor ETF (SOXL)$On Wednesday, there was a 14,000 contract opening put s

Today's market action can be described as a "bump-and-drop" decline, where any data point is seized upon as an excuse to sell regardless of the actual details.August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% expected, implying inflation did not continue decelerating as hoped. Analysts suggested this could prompt Powell to skip a rate cut altogether, hence the bearish reaction.However, trader tools still show consensus expectations coalescing around a 25bps hike. And I noticed the past few days saw institutions struggling to hold back from aggressive call buying in tech names. So let's call a spade a spade - this is just garden variety pullback behavior, no need to grasp at straws for excuses.The core issue appears to be tech trailing the broader market selloff, which has traders lean

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you!TRADE PLAN for Wednesday 📈 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price action today bullish with SPX defending 5463 and closing near the highs. SPX through 5500 can run another 70 pts into Friday if there's a pos. reaction to CPI tmrw5530C can work above 5500 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 224 breakout level for a move to 233-240 this month.230C is best above 224 $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ keep a close eye on 110 this week, if it gets through we'll see a fast move to 126+110C can work above 108 .Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/EliteOptions2

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1.Sold-to-open 5 $GameStop(GME)$ Sept 13 expiration 45 strike naked calls @ 0.13Full transparency ... have a long position that would greatly benefit if it hits 45, but that position is already covered. These calls are naked. Trying to tempt to MMs to pump up GME post-earnings.2.Closing $Oracle(ORCL)$ 160/165 call debit spread for profit. Gonna let the put debit spread expire worthless, or roll the 120p up to 145+ to capture premium on a bet that ORCL holds above that level due to earnings results and reaction.Follow me to learn more about analysis!https://x.com/Selling4Premium

The covered call overwriters on $Nvidia (NVDA)$ and $Tesla (TSLA)$ rolled their positions.$Nvidia (NVDA)$Closing $NVDA 20240913 118.0 CALL$  - 84,400 contractsRolling and Selling $NVDA 20240920 113.0 CALL$  - 84,400 contracts113 seems a bit low compared to last week's highs around 116. I would look to sell the $NVDA 20240920 116.0 CALL$  at the open instead.There were also two other notable opening call trades:Selling to Open

Let's start with $Tesla (TSLA)$ today.After last Friday's selloff, with markets now pricing in recession risks and the pullback likely incomplete, some institutions couldn't wait to buy upside calls:Buying $TSLA 20241220 240.0 CALL$  - 20,000 contracts, expiring Dec 20th for $40.7 million in premium.Another notable flow was a roll from November calls up to the December expiry:Buying $TSLA 20241220 225.0 CALL$  - 40,000 contracts for $95.8 million in premium paid.It seems Friday's vicious selloff spooked some institutions holding bullish call exposure over the next few months, prompting them to roll that upside

Well, they don't call the U.S. the "Nation of Debt" for nothing. Not only are Americans leveraged with loans, but the stock market itself trades on borrowed expectations, with price action always frontrunning eventual outcomes.The August nonfarm payrolls data came in weaker than forecast at 142k vs 160k expected. The July figures were also revised sharply lower to just 89k from 162k. The unemployment rate fell to a new 6-month low of 4.2%.After the release, rate trader tools showed a tug-of-war in pricing, but net-net it's still about a 55% chance of just a 25bps hike rather than 50bps at this point. Though we did have that August 5th "black swan" experience fresh in memory - it seemingly would take a Japanese market crash to get the Fed to 50bps now.But some near-term consolidation in equ

$Nvidia (NVDA)$Institutions were sellers of the $NVDA 20240906 96.0 PUT$  - 18,500 contracts of this week's 96 strike puts yesterday.That seems to imply they expect Nvidia to close above $100 on Friday's expiration following the payrolls report.$Tesla (TSLA)$No major positioning, but for next week the most active new put buyer was the 200 strike.The 200 strike put also remains the largest open interest for the September 20th monthly expiration, raising Tesla's technical floor.However, call option volumes have been lackluster for Tesla, likely influenced by economic data expectations. Initial resistance seems to be $230.On the index side,

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$Nvidia (NVDA)$'s pullback on Tuesday was unsurprising, but what caught me off guard was institutions rolling their covered calls already, when typically they'd wait until Thursday or Friday for premium erosion:Closing $NVDA 20240906 126.0 CALL$ Opening $NVDA 20240913 118.0 CALL$  overwriteFor the 0913 118 calls, I expect they'll look to close before expiration once the price is favorable, rather than holding to expiry. So theoretically, Nvidia's closing price in the week of Sep 13th doesn't necessarily need to stay below $118.Or does it?With the Sep 20th monthly options expiring, the Sep 13th close will likel

TL;DR: For Nvidia's Q4, the expected trading range is roughly $90-130, with $110 as the median price point.Following Nvidia's Q2 earnings release, the famous $200 million trader rolled their position:Closing $NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$  100,000 contractsOpening $NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$  126,000 contractsPreviously I may have conflated their position with other funds, as it's not uncommon for prominent whales to have imitators piggybacking.Evaluating the closed 105 calls ($NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$ ), the trader likely took a small loss based on the chart, but nothing extraordinary f

Overview On August 23, 2024, I executed an options strategy by selling a put option contract for Marvell Technology, Inc. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$   with a strike price of $60 and a maturity date of October 18, 2024. For this contract, I collected an option premium of $167. The decision to engage in this strategy was influenced by Marvell’s strong positioning in the AI sector, which was expected to significantly impact the company's earnings and revenue mix over the next two years. Rationale Behind the Strategy Marvell Technology’s exposure to the AI market, with an anticipated 40% of its earnings projected to come from AI-related products, placed the company in a unique position to benefit from the rapid adoption of AI across multipl

Overview On August 23, 2024, I initiated an options strategy by selling a put option contract on Coterra Energy $Coterra Energy Inc.(CTRA)$   with a strike price of USD 23, set to mature on September 20, 2024. I collected an option premium of USD 17 per contract at the time, basing my investment thesis on the strong fundamentals of Coterra Energy and the potential for an increase in U.S. natural gas prices. Initial Strategy and Rationale The decision to sell the put option was driven by my confidence in Coterra Energy as a blue-chip natural gas producer with a robust balance sheet and significant low-cost reserves. The company's profitability even at lower natural gas prices ($2.00 to $2.50) indicated that it was well-positioned to bene

Overview On August 30, 2024, I decided to roll over 1 contract of Li Auto (LI) $Li Auto(LI)$  $LI AUTO-W(02015)$  put option from the maturity date of October 18, 2024, to December 20, 2024, collecting an option premium of USD 65 per contract. This decision was influenced by Li Auto’s recent second-quarter performance and its outlook for the third quarter. Li Auto's Second Quarter Performance Li Auto’s second-quarter results presented a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges: Vehicle Deliveries: The company reported a year-over-year (YoY) increase in vehicle deliveries by 25.5%. This growth signals a continued demand for Li Auto’s

Overview of the Investment On 30 August 2024, I decided to roll over 3 contracts of Nextracker (NXT) $NEXTracker Inc(NXT)$  put options from a maturity date of 18 October 2024 to 15 November 2024. This strategic move allowed me to collect an additional premium of USD 132 per contract. The decision was influenced by several factors related to Nextracker’s market position, financial health, and growth prospects. Rationale Behind the Rollover Strategy Market Leadership and Growth Prospects Nextracker is a prominent player in the solar tracking solutions industry, a sector that has been growing rapidly due to increasing global investment in renewable energy. Since its IPO in 2023, the company has delivered impressive double-digit returns, undersc

Overview of the Trade On August 30, 2024, I decided to roll over my existing AI put option, originally set to expire on October 18, 2024, to a new maturity date of December 20, 2024. In doing so, I collected an option premium of $89 per contract. This decision was influenced by the upcoming earnings report of C3.ai, Inc. (AI) $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$  , in which Wall Street analysts are expecting a quarterly loss of $0.13 per share—reflecting a year-over-year decline of 44.4%. Despite this projected decline in earnings, the company's revenues are anticipated to rise by 42% to $87.12 million compared to the same quarter last year. Rationale Behind the Strategy The decision to roll over the put option was largely influenc

TL;DR: Expected trading range for $Nvidia (NVDA)$ next week is $100-126. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ gapped lower and sold off on Friday following Thursday's earnings report, closing at $117.59. Our familiar institutional overwriters and the infamous $200 million trader were both active on the name.First, the standard weekly covered call roll from institutions. After getting blown out on their 111 calls a couple weeks ago, they reasserted control by rolling their overwrite down to $NVDA 20240906 126.0 CALL$  after Nvidia failed to breach 130 following results.So the pre-earnings closing high around 126 now becomes next week's key resistance lev

DLTR: Smart institutions know to avoid controversy in an election year.$Nvidia (NVDA)$Wednesday's opening flows are difficult to decipher, as shown in the chart - there's essentially only one trade type: stock + $NVDA 20241220 120.0 CALL$  + $NVDA 20241220 120.0 PUT$  across all expirations. For example:Stock$NVDA 20241220 120.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20241220 120.0 PUT$ We also saw stock + October straddles, November straddles, January straddles, February straddles, March straddles, a

A bold claim: Nvidia's trading dynamics will remain essentially unchanged after the September FOMC decision, be it a 25bps or 50bps rate hike.Coming out of the Mid-Autumn Festival break, rate hike expectations abruptly shifted, with 50bps becoming the higher probability scenario over 25bps. Historically, a 50bps hike was viewed as a negative catalyst that could drive Nvidia down towards $90.But the options market seems to disagree this time around.Looking at the three trading days since last Friday, including Monday and Tuesday this week, there haven't been any glaring shifts in Nvidia's open interest profiles that would align with a hawkish 50bps re-pricing.As the chart shows, this week's call open interest remains firmly elevated, with $120 strikes leading after stripping out a few outli

$Nvidia (NVDA)$An important adjustment impacting next week's expiration - open interest on the $NVDA 20240920 110.0 CALL has dropped to just 41,900 contracts remaining.This effectively raises Nvidia's upside call strike ceiling to $120 for next Friday's close, shifting the focus away from $110 to a broader $110-120 range.The question then becomes - at what level do funds look to roll their $113 covered call position that remains open?My $116 covered call is also still open. I closed the $NVDA 20240920 105.0 PUT$  overwrite and rolled it down to $105.That ultra-short-dated $119-126 call spread I noted yesterday has rolled again, closing and re-opening in the $124-130 range - sugge

Well, they don't call the U.S. the "Nation of Debt" for nothing. Not only are Americans leveraged with loans, but the stock market itself trades on borrowed expectations, with price action always frontrunning eventual outcomes.The August nonfarm payrolls data came in weaker than forecast at 142k vs 160k expected. The July figures were also revised sharply lower to just 89k from 162k. The unemployment rate fell to a new 6-month low of 4.2%.After the release, rate trader tools showed a tug-of-war in pricing, but net-net it's still about a 55% chance of just a 25bps hike rather than 50bps at this point. Though we did have that August 5th "black swan" experience fresh in memory - it seemingly would take a Japanese market crash to get the Fed to 50bps now.But some near-term consolidation in equ

Let's start with $Tesla (TSLA)$ today.After last Friday's selloff, with markets now pricing in recession risks and the pullback likely incomplete, some institutions couldn't wait to buy upside calls:Buying $TSLA 20241220 240.0 CALL$  - 20,000 contracts, expiring Dec 20th for $40.7 million in premium.Another notable flow was a roll from November calls up to the December expiry:Buying $TSLA 20241220 225.0 CALL$  - 40,000 contracts for $95.8 million in premium paid.It seems Friday's vicious selloff spooked some institutions holding bullish call exposure over the next few months, prompting them to roll that upside

$Nvidia (NVDA)$ traders are rolling their call spread positions too?Buying $NVDA 20241018 119.0 CALL$ Selling $NVDA 20241018 126.0 CALL$ Funds closed their $115-122 call spread opened on 9/9 and rolled it higher to the $119-126 strikes, likely after Nvidia gapped up 8% to $116.90 and achieved the initial upside target.However, the $113 covered call position from last week remains open. Based on open interest, we'll likely see another tug-of-war play out around the $110 level next week.$3x Semiconductor ETF (SOXL)$On Wednesday, there was a 14,000 contract opening put s

Today's market action can be described as a "bump-and-drop" decline, where any data point is seized upon as an excuse to sell regardless of the actual details.August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% expected, implying inflation did not continue decelerating as hoped. Analysts suggested this could prompt Powell to skip a rate cut altogether, hence the bearish reaction.However, trader tools still show consensus expectations coalescing around a 25bps hike. And I noticed the past few days saw institutions struggling to hold back from aggressive call buying in tech names. So let's call a spade a spade - this is just garden variety pullback behavior, no need to grasp at straws for excuses.The core issue appears to be tech trailing the broader market selloff, which has traders lean

TL;DR: Expected trading range for $Nvidia (NVDA)$ next week is $100-126. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ gapped lower and sold off on Friday following Thursday's earnings report, closing at $117.59. Our familiar institutional overwriters and the infamous $200 million trader were both active on the name.First, the standard weekly covered call roll from institutions. After getting blown out on their 111 calls a couple weeks ago, they reasserted control by rolling their overwrite down to $NVDA 20240906 126.0 CALL$  after Nvidia failed to breach 130 following results.So the pre-earnings closing high around 126 now becomes next week's key resistance lev

The covered call overwriters on $Nvidia (NVDA)$ and $Tesla (TSLA)$ rolled their positions.$Nvidia (NVDA)$Closing $NVDA 20240913 118.0 CALL$  - 84,400 contractsRolling and Selling $NVDA 20240920 113.0 CALL$  - 84,400 contracts113 seems a bit low compared to last week's highs around 116. I would look to sell the $NVDA 20240920 116.0 CALL$  at the open instead.There were also two other notable opening call trades:Selling to Open

TL;DR: For Nvidia's Q4, the expected trading range is roughly $90-130, with $110 as the median price point.Following Nvidia's Q2 earnings release, the famous $200 million trader rolled their position:Closing $NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$  100,000 contractsOpening $NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$  126,000 contractsPreviously I may have conflated their position with other funds, as it's not uncommon for prominent whales to have imitators piggybacking.Evaluating the closed 105 calls ($NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$ ), the trader likely took a small loss based on the chart, but nothing extraordinary f

$Nvidia (NVDA)$'s pullback on Tuesday was unsurprising, but what caught me off guard was institutions rolling their covered calls already, when typically they'd wait until Thursday or Friday for premium erosion:Closing $NVDA 20240906 126.0 CALL$ Opening $NVDA 20240913 118.0 CALL$  overwriteFor the 0913 118 calls, I expect they'll look to close before expiration once the price is favorable, rather than holding to expiry. So theoretically, Nvidia's closing price in the week of Sep 13th doesn't necessarily need to stay below $118.Or does it?With the Sep 20th monthly options expiring, the Sep 13th close will likel

The TL;DR: The broader market wants one final rally to new highs before the next rate cut, and that push is heavily dependent on Nvidia's earnings catalyst.However, this quarter's Nvidia options flow shows a lack of aggressive bullish positioning like single-leg put overwriting or outright call buying. Perhaps institutions are more concerned about economic risks than getting ahead of robust earnings reactions this time around.This creates an odd dynamic where the overall market isn't outright bearish, but is lacking those conviction institutional buy-side flows that inspire confidence. My conservative approach is to simply overwrite via the $NVDA 20240830 115.0 PUT$ .Starting with the index, $SPY$ options are leaning more

In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell made it clear the Fed intends to cut rates, but stated "the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."Market pricing currently shows a 67.5% probability of a 25bps cut in September and a 32.5% chance of a 50bps cut.This suggests expectations for softer, but not drastically weak, economic data (including non-farm payrolls and CPI) between now and the September 20th FOMC meeting, warranting a 25bps ease. A 50bps cut is the lower probability scenario if data disappoints significantly.An even lower probability event would be resilient data that convinces Powell to stand pat in September and wait until November.In his policy outlook, Powell emphasized labor market performance:Today, the labor mar

$Nvidia (NVDA)$Institutions were sellers of the $NVDA 20240906 96.0 PUT$  - 18,500 contracts of this week's 96 strike puts yesterday.That seems to imply they expect Nvidia to close above $100 on Friday's expiration following the payrolls report.$Tesla (TSLA)$No major positioning, but for next week the most active new put buyer was the 200 strike.The 200 strike put also remains the largest open interest for the September 20th monthly expiration, raising Tesla's technical floor.However, call option volumes have been lackluster for Tesla, likely influenced by economic data expectations. Initial resistance seems to be $230.On the index side,

Overview of the Trade On August 30, 2024, I decided to roll over my existing AI put option, originally set to expire on October 18, 2024, to a new maturity date of December 20, 2024. In doing so, I collected an option premium of $89 per contract. This decision was influenced by the upcoming earnings report of C3.ai, Inc. (AI) $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$  , in which Wall Street analysts are expecting a quarterly loss of $0.13 per share—reflecting a year-over-year decline of 44.4%. Despite this projected decline in earnings, the company's revenues are anticipated to rise by 42% to $87.12 million compared to the same quarter last year. Rationale Behind the Strategy The decision to roll over the put option was largely influenc

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ To get straight to the point, traders need to consider whether they can stomach PDD below $90.Current PDD options trading can be broadly categorized into three strategies: outright bearish bets, shorting volatility, and delta-hedging.There is virtually no bullish positioning - one modest put overwrite at the 100 strike, but no notable call buying interest.Single-leg strategies are dominantly put biased, with the August 30th 95 and 90 strikes emerging as focal points for outright bearish exposure:$PDD 20240830 95.0 PUT$ $PDD 20240830 90.0 PUT$ Multi-leg flows are primarily volatility shorts and

Nvidia's earnings performance was largely in-line with expectations. The lack of a bigger rally is a bit of a disappointment, but even if it had spiked to $135, a pullback was inevitable.However, the more concerning aspect is that without Nvidia leading the charge, the broader market likely won't make new highs ahead of next week's nonfarm payrolls release. The traders who sold $SPY$ 570 calls probably dodged a bullet there.On Wednesday, institutions preemptively rolled their covered call positions in tech names - an unusually early adjustment compared to the typical Thursday/Friday roll execution. This likely signals Wednesday was the near-term top for equities.Furthermore, the strike selections on these rolls were taken down a notch. $Tesla (TSLA)$<

Overview On August 23, 2024, I executed an options strategy by selling a put option contract for Marvell Technology, Inc. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$   with a strike price of $60 and a maturity date of October 18, 2024. For this contract, I collected an option premium of $167. The decision to engage in this strategy was influenced by Marvell’s strong positioning in the AI sector, which was expected to significantly impact the company's earnings and revenue mix over the next two years. Rationale Behind the Strategy Marvell Technology’s exposure to the AI market, with an anticipated 40% of its earnings projected to come from AI-related products, placed the company in a unique position to benefit from the rapid adoption of AI across multipl

Overview of the Investment On 30 August 2024, I decided to roll over 3 contracts of Nextracker (NXT) $NEXTracker Inc(NXT)$  put options from a maturity date of 18 October 2024 to 15 November 2024. This strategic move allowed me to collect an additional premium of USD 132 per contract. The decision was influenced by several factors related to Nextracker’s market position, financial health, and growth prospects. Rationale Behind the Rollover Strategy Market Leadership and Growth Prospects Nextracker is a prominent player in the solar tracking solutions industry, a sector that has been growing rapidly due to increasing global investment in renewable energy. Since its IPO in 2023, the company has delivered impressive double-digit returns, undersc

Overview On August 30, 2024, I decided to roll over 1 contract of Li Auto (LI) $Li Auto(LI)$  $LI AUTO-W(02015)$  put option from the maturity date of October 18, 2024, to December 20, 2024, collecting an option premium of USD 65 per contract. This decision was influenced by Li Auto’s recent second-quarter performance and its outlook for the third quarter. Li Auto's Second Quarter Performance Li Auto’s second-quarter results presented a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges: Vehicle Deliveries: The company reported a year-over-year (YoY) increase in vehicle deliveries by 25.5%. This growth signals a continued demand for Li Auto’s