To The Moon

TSMC's record capital expenditure of $52-56 billion in 2026 is primarily aimed at expanding capacity to meet surging AI chip demand. Despite this significant investment, advanced-node supply is expected to lag demand for years. TSMC's Pricing Power TSMC is well-positioned to maintain and even increase its pricing power despite rising investment intensity. Dominant Market Position: TSMC is the world's largest contract chipmaker and dominates advanced chip fabrication, holding a 72% share in the global foundry market and over 90% market share for advanced AI chips. High Demand for Advanced Nodes: Demand for TSMC's 3nm process technology continuously exceeds supply, leading to sold-out fabrication lines and customers paying premiums for expedited manufacturing. TSMC has temporarily halted new

Hong Kong equities mostly edged lower on Friday (16 Jan) as investors locked in gains, following an earlier surge after a robust earnings outlook from TSMC that strengthened confidence in sustained AI-driven demand and boosted global risk appetite. $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ still advanced 2.37% for the week, while the $HSI(HSI)$ gained 2.34%. With the market failing to break above the recent highs in Oct/Nov last year, HSI continues to be resisted at around the 27,200 level; a breakout above this level would signal that the recent upward price movement has extended beyond prior consolidation, while price hesitation at this zone could indicate that the market remains in a consolidation phase. Top movers over the s

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

I will go for option C. Intel price has run too far ahead of its value. Market is positioning Intel for its potential future success of its foundry services to take on TSMC. It's not even in the AMD space. US government's involvement is already priced in from the recent price spike. Now is the time for delivery however there is simply not enough time for Intel to do just that. Therefore market will be in for a reality check when it announces its latest results. Of course, this is only my take. Market could be irrational for longer than necessary, as could be seen in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Happy for all riding on this horse. Soon be 🚀 to the month. 

$Intel(INTC)$ I speculate range-bound, but I'm not convinced it will hit the +5%. As some tech stocks may start slowing down this time of year - or so I've noticed in the past within a similar financial climate (the instability of inter-global warfare, be it economic or by force or "pursuasion" notwithstanding)...

a

🟢 I think the stock might move up more than 5% after its upcoming earnings report! Turnaround momentum feels real right now & a solid report will help.

I chose C

The semiconductor industry is buzzing once more, with $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ delivering a blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings report that not only shattered expectations but also ignited a rally across the sector. Shares of TSMC surged over 4% in early trading, while $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$, a key supplier of chipmaking equipment, jumped as much as 7.6% to a record high, pushing its market capitalization above $500 billion for the first time. This enthusiasm stems from TSMC's robust results and optimistic outlook, underscoring the unrelenting demand for AI-driven chips and sending ripples through related stocks like $Lam Research(LRCX)$ and

TSM’s $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ blowout quarter pretty much reset the bar for the entire semiconductor space. With margins expanding, AI-driven demand proving real, and capex leaning heavily toward advanced nodes, the market is clearly rewarding execution and visibility — not just a good story. That’s why Intel $Intel(INTC)$ feels like a tougher test. The stock is already up around 30% YTD, expectations on manufacturing progress have been pulled forward, and yet consensus still points to year-over-year declines in both revenue and profits. When expectations run ahead of fundamentals, the margin for disappointment gets very thin. So my pick is 🔴 C. Down more than 5%. After such a strong

My pick: B. Range-bound (-5% to +5%) Reason: Intel is still in an “expectations reset” phase, so unless guidance is a clear upside shock (AI PC demand, margins, foundry progress), the market likely treats earnings as a checkpoint, not a breakout catalyst. A big move (>5%) usually needs either a major guide-up (A) or a sharp miss / weak outlook (C).

Yes, AI demand can realistically keep TSMC’s momentum intact into 2026, and the market can still be underpricing its AI leverage, but the upside depends on whether this cycle stays “tight” rather than “normalising”. Why momentum can stay strong into 2026 TSMC is the bottleneck for leading-edge AI: Most meaningful AI compute still concentrates around advanced nodes (N3/N2, advanced packaging). Even if end-demand fluctuates, the strategic need to secure capacity stays high. AI is not just GPUs: Beyond NVIDIA/AMD accelerators, AI demand spreads into CPUs, networking silicon, HBM controllers, custom ASICs (hyperscalers), and edge AI. That broadens TSMC’s growth base. Margins accelerating is a powerful signal: When profits and margins rise alongside revenue, it implies pricing power + high util

I think range bound. INTC not like TSM, so strong with steady revenues. something might disappoint

It's the up cycle now.. ride the wave. As long as growth keeps on going, and revenues are rising, skies the limit for these AI linked companies. Allocation is impt. Don't put all the money into AI semi con. Spread it out. That is safer while you continue to ride the wave

TSMC's Growth Momentum and AI Impact Analysis Key Factors Driving TSMC's Growth Momentum TSMC's growth momentum is primarily driven by its critical role in advanced chip manufacturing and surging demand from the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Dominance in Advanced Process Nodes: TSMC is the world's largest contract chipmaker and the leading manufacturer of advanced AI chips, making it a "pure-play artificial intelligence stock". It plays a critical role in making advanced chips like GPUs, which are essential for AI technologies. In the third quarter of 2025, advanced nodes (7-nanometer and below) accounted for 74% of its wafer revenues, demonstrating its technological leadership. Accelerated AI Demand: TSMC is experiencing accelerated demand for AI-optimized chips, with requests for

Yesterday, the Russell 2000, a key benchmark for small-cap stocks, climbed 0.86%, marking its 10th consecutive trading day outperforming the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ — the longest such streak since 1990.As a result, ETFs tied to the Russell 2000 have been on fire. $ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000(URTY)$ is up 24.5% year-to-date, while $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ has gained 7.9% YTD, both comfortably outperforming $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , which is up just 1.5% over the same period.Notably, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ released its fourth-quarter earnings repor

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Buckle up, folks – the semiconductor giants are firing on all cylinders! TSMC just crushed expectations with a jaw-dropping earnings report, sending shockwaves through the market and proving the AI revolution is far from over. Shares skyrocketed as investors pile in, betting big on relentless demand for cutting-edge chips. But wait, ASML's riding the wave too, hitting record highs on the back of this frenzy. Is this the acceleration we've been waiting for, or just a teaser of what's coming in 2026? Let's dive deep into the numbers, trends, and why holding these beasts could be your smartest move yet. 😎📈 ASML TSMC First off, TSMC's powerhouse

If you are still worried about whether AI is a foam, yesterday TSMC gave you a loud slap in the face with real gold and silver - not to wake you up, but to plunge you into a crazier bullish dream! The market had originally expected that the semiconductor cycle might peak, but TSMC said it would not only exceed expectations across the board, but also send a shockwave: capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2026 would skyrocket to $52 billion to $56 billion. This not only set a record high, but also directly shattered the rumors of an 'AI demand slowdown'. This is not a big picture; this is an arms race of real gold and silver.

Replying to @SPOT_ON:[Call] [Call] [USD] [USD] [USD] [Like] [Like] [Like] [Like] [Like]//@SPOT_ON:my guess the closing price will be $342 @Tiger_Earnings @MHh @DiAngel @rL @StarLuck @Success88

TSMC's record capital expenditure of $52-56 billion in 2026 is primarily aimed at expanding capacity to meet surging AI chip demand. Despite this significant investment, advanced-node supply is expected to lag demand for years. TSMC's Pricing Power TSMC is well-positioned to maintain and even increase its pricing power despite rising investment intensity. Dominant Market Position: TSMC is the world's largest contract chipmaker and dominates advanced chip fabrication, holding a 72% share in the global foundry market and over 90% market share for advanced AI chips. High Demand for Advanced Nodes: Demand for TSMC's 3nm process technology continuously exceeds supply, leading to sold-out fabrication lines and customers paying premiums for expedited manufacturing. TSMC has temporarily halted new

Hong Kong equities mostly edged lower on Friday (16 Jan) as investors locked in gains, following an earlier surge after a robust earnings outlook from TSMC that strengthened confidence in sustained AI-driven demand and boosted global risk appetite. $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ still advanced 2.37% for the week, while the $HSI(HSI)$ gained 2.34%. With the market failing to break above the recent highs in Oct/Nov last year, HSI continues to be resisted at around the 27,200 level; a breakout above this level would signal that the recent upward price movement has extended beyond prior consolidation, while price hesitation at this zone could indicate that the market remains in a consolidation phase. Top movers over the s

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

I will go for option C. Intel price has run too far ahead of its value. Market is positioning Intel for its potential future success of its foundry services to take on TSMC. It's not even in the AMD space. US government's involvement is already priced in from the recent price spike. Now is the time for delivery however there is simply not enough time for Intel to do just that. Therefore market will be in for a reality check when it announces its latest results. Of course, this is only my take. Market could be irrational for longer than necessary, as could be seen in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$, the world's leading contract chipmaker, is set to report its full Q4 2025 earnings on January 15, 2026, at 2:00 PM Taiwan time (1:00 AM Eastern Time), followed by an earnings conference call. The quarter covers October to December 2025, and the results come amid strong demand for advanced semiconductors driven by AI infrastructure needs from clients like Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom. TSMC has already pre-released its Q4 revenue figures on January 9, reporting NT$1.046 trillion (approximately $33.05 billion USD), which beat analyst estimates of around $32.73 billion and marked a 20.45% year-over-year (YoY) increase. For the full year 2025, revenue reached about $120 billion, up 31.6% YoY, underscoring the co

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Buckle up, folks – the semiconductor giants are firing on all cylinders! TSMC just crushed expectations with a jaw-dropping earnings report, sending shockwaves through the market and proving the AI revolution is far from over. Shares skyrocketed as investors pile in, betting big on relentless demand for cutting-edge chips. But wait, ASML's riding the wave too, hitting record highs on the back of this frenzy. Is this the acceleration we've been waiting for, or just a teaser of what's coming in 2026? Let's dive deep into the numbers, trends, and why holding these beasts could be your smartest move yet. 😎📈 ASML TSMC First off, TSMC's powerhouse

Yesterday, the Russell 2000, a key benchmark for small-cap stocks, climbed 0.86%, marking its 10th consecutive trading day outperforming the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ — the longest such streak since 1990.As a result, ETFs tied to the Russell 2000 have been on fire. $ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000(URTY)$ is up 24.5% year-to-date, while $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ has gained 7.9% YTD, both comfortably outperforming $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , which is up just 1.5% over the same period.Notably, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ released its fourth-quarter earnings repor

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  This tape is mispricing a volatility regime shift into $TSM earnings on 15 Jan. Price is not stalling, it is compressing, and when compression appears alongside rising institutional flow, short dated gamma and suppressed IV, it creates the highest probability environment for non linear price discovery. Taiwan Semiconductor is not trading like a mature foundry, it is trading like an AI infrastructure gatekeeper with a liquidity vacuum above the tape. $TSM is sitting at $325.40 (-1.75%) after printing a gap down and go from $324 to $333+ immediately following

The semiconductor industry is buzzing once more, with $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ delivering a blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings report that not only shattered expectations but also ignited a rally across the sector. Shares of TSMC surged over 4% in early trading, while $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$, a key supplier of chipmaking equipment, jumped as much as 7.6% to a record high, pushing its market capitalization above $500 billion for the first time. This enthusiasm stems from TSMC's robust results and optimistic outlook, underscoring the unrelenting demand for AI-driven chips and sending ripples through related stocks like $Lam Research(LRCX)$ and

TSMC Just Told Wall Street: You're Still Underestimating AI Global foundry leader $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   released its Q4 2025 earnings, and the company, playing the role of the ultimate "shovel seller" in the AI gold rush, delivered a quarter that beat expectations across revenue, gross margin, and net profit, alongside long-term growth guidance that exceeded market forecasts. Three Things to Watch 2026 Full-Year and Long-Term AI Guidance Blew Past Expectations; AI Remains the Growth Pillar The Street had consensus expectations for TSMC's 2026 full-year USD revenue growth at approximately 25% YoY. Management's guidance? 30% YoY growth. Last quarter, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ manage

Just now, January 15, 2026-$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) $Announced today that for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company's consolidated revenue reachedNT $1.04609 trillion, net profitNT $505.74 billionDiluted earnings per shareNT $19.50(Yield per unit of ADR$3.14）。On a year-on-year basis, revenue growth in the quarter20.5%, both net profit and diluted earnings per share increased35.0%； QoQ Q3 2025, revenue growth5.7%, net profit growth11.8%。 All financial data are based onTaiwan Financial Accounting Standards(TIFRS), prepared on a consolidated basis.In U.S. dollars, fourth-quarter revenue was$33.73 billion, year-on-year growth25.5%, month-on-month growth1.9%。Gross profit margin for the quarter was62.3%, operating profit m

TSMC's Growth Momentum and AI Impact Analysis Key Factors Driving TSMC's Growth Momentum TSMC's growth momentum is primarily driven by its critical role in advanced chip manufacturing and surging demand from the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Dominance in Advanced Process Nodes: TSMC is the world's largest contract chipmaker and the leading manufacturer of advanced AI chips, making it a "pure-play artificial intelligence stock". It plays a critical role in making advanced chips like GPUs, which are essential for AI technologies. In the third quarter of 2025, advanced nodes (7-nanometer and below) accounted for 74% of its wafer revenues, demonstrating its technological leadership. Accelerated AI Demand: TSMC is experiencing accelerated demand for AI-optimized chips, with requests for

TSMC Q4 Preview: The AI Gatekeeper Takes Center Stage $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  , the world's leading semiconductor foundry, will release its Q4 earnings report on January 15. The market is closely watching what kind of profit results this company, widely regarded as the ultimate "pick-and-shovel" play in the AI boom, will deliver. Option Market Signals Ahead of TSMC's highly anticipated earnings release on January 15, the options market is flashing cautionary signals as the put/call ratio has surged to an elevated 1.64 on total open interest of 1.76 million contracts, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection into the report. Implied volatility stands at 43.33%, commanding a substanti

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   Can TSMC Beat Expectations and Set New Highs Again? Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, has been one of the standout performers in the semiconductor sector — driven by AI demand, advanced process leadership, and strong earnings momentum. But as we head deeper into 2026, the big question for investors is: Can TSMC continue to beat expectations and push its stock to new highs? 1. A Strong Momentum Backed by Recent Beats TSMC’s latest quarterly performance shows solid fundamentals. Its Q4 2025 revenue rose

🌟🌟🌟As $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  heads in Q4 earnings, the market is asking whether the memory upcycle will lift the entire semiconductor complex from TSMC to ASML, into a new phase of profitability?    Will AI orders continue to accelerate, pushing TSMC to new highs?  How much upside is left for memory names now that demand is sizzling hot? The truth is, we are entering a rare moment where both sides of the semiconductor world - foundry and memory, are strengthening at the same time. Foundry: TSMC and ASML are Riding the AI Wave  TSMC remains the backbone of the global AI infrastructure.  Every model, every inference engine, every data centre upgrade - they all run throug

1. With Q4 earnings ahead, will AI orders drive TSMC to new highs? Likely, but not unconditionally. TSMC’s share price has been propelled by AI-related demand for advanced logic and accelerator chips. Analysts and trading data suggest AI infrastructure spending is a central driver behind forward earnings expectations and capacity utilisation. Foundry revenue has expanded strongly on the back of AI chip orders and products built on TSMC’s leading nodes (3nm and 2nm) have high margins and stickier customer demand.  Key considerations: AI backlog and advanced nodes: TSMC’s 2nm and advanced CoWoS packaging are core to AI chips for Nvidia, AMD and others, sustaining both revenue and margin leadership.  Guidance matters: The next leg higher will depend on guidance around capacity utili

CES 2026 New Chips Make a Splash! How Will the Big Leap Reshape the Manufacturing Ecosystem? The chip layouts of companies like NVIDIA and AMD at the CES conference, along with TSMC's tight 2nm production capacity, have widely benefited chip equipment manufacturers from $Applied Materials(AMAT)$   to $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$ .  $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   , the largest customer of equipment manufacturers, provided guidance on October 16, 2025, for its 2025 capital expenditure at $40-42 billion, up from the previous range of $38-42 billion, raising the lower limit by $2 billion. TSMC has not yet provided

TSMC's Performance and AI Chip Demand 1. AI Demand Outlook and Growth TSMC anticipates AI chip demand to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% in the coming years, with actual demand potentially exceeding this forecast. This robust demand is a significant tailwind for TSMC, as it manufactures chips essential for nearly all AI technologies and is considered a pure-play AI stock. Deloitte estimates that $250 billion to $300 billion could be spent on AI data center chips this year, a substantial increase from $150 billion last year, which directly benefits TSMC. The overall semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% in 2026, reaching $975 billion. 2. Production Capacity and Technological Advancement TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes are operating at high uti

Current Market Trends and Analyst Expectations for the Semiconductor Industry 1. Overall Semiconductor Industry Outlook The chip industry is experiencing a rally, with a projected market size exceeding $2 trillion by 2032, driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its associated infrastructure buildout. Global sales are anticipated to jump by 30% year-over-year, pushing the industry past the $1 trillion annual revenue mark in 2026, also fueled by an Al-led capital spending boom. Chipmakers are expected to end 2025 higher due to sustained investments in Al. 2. Foundry Sector Trends (e.g., TSMC, ASML, Tokyo Electron, Lam Research) Al-Driven Demand for Advanced Chips: The global surge in Al development significantly impacts customer demand for advanced semiconductor chips. Companies like TSM

TSMC Attracts Big Put Option Trades Ahead of Earnings, Locking in Gains From 62% Rally $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   saw millions of dollars in block trades of put options that can shield their holders against a reversal of the American depositary receipts' (ADRs) 62% rally over the past year. In the first half hour of trading Wednesday, four block trades were posted involving put options that give their holder the right to sell a combined 1.57 million ADRs of the Taiwanese chipmaker at $330 each in the next 37 days. That strike price is less than $2 below the all-time high of $331.77 reached Monday. Those trades could help the buyers lock in gains or protect against volatility. The transaction