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05-27
$SGX(S68.SI)$ $SGX(S68.SI)$
TOPColinThorndike: Interesting choice with $SGX(S68.SI)$
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05-25
Nvidia = AMD + Tesla Nvidia vs AMD vs Tesla: A Comparative Analysis Introduction In the rapidly evolving world of technology, three names stand out for their contributions to various domains: Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla. Each of these companies has carved out a niche in the tech landscape, driving innovation in graphics processing, computing, and electric vehicles. This article explores the unique strengths and market positions of Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla, providing a comprehensive comparison of their impact on the industry. Nvidia: The Pioneer in Graphics and AI Overview Nvidia Corporation, founded in 1993, is renowned for its contributions to the graphics processing unit (GPU) market. Initially focusing on gaming, Nvidia has expanded its horizons to artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, a
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05-28
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$
TOPGreat analysis! FFIE needs to refocus their strategy for a brighter future. [Thinking]
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06-04
What's Next for Roaring Kitty's $85 Million Gain? What Would You Do?
When Roaring Kitty posted another update revealing his massive $85 million gain as of today's close, speculation arose about what his next move would be.Did you join this party? Let's take a look at the secrets to success!Congratulations to @Bibou for the impressive $26,934 return on $GameStop(GME)$. [Applaud][Applaud][Applaud]Congratulations to @Bryanboy93 for the impressive 95.12% return on $GameStop(GME)$. [Applaud][Applaud][Applaud]Despite the chaotic stock price of the day, the closing price still rose by about 21%. Roaring Kitty released another update, revealing that his earnings reached $85
TOPThanks. Just went to declare also that I close the position after posting. Didn't Have the stomach to hold 🥺
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06-04
Oil Slumps as OPEC's Surprise Plan to Raise Output
The news on weekends is always relatively sudden. There are two main news this weekend. One is that the Houthis attacked the US aircraft carrier (twice), and the other is that the OPEC meeting was held, and the follow-up production reduction policy was determined.First of all, the US aircraft carrier was attacked, and the US side was very "restrained", saying that it had not found the attack, but the Houthis were very active in "claiming" that they had attacked the US aircraft carrier twice. This contrast has little impact on the market in the short term, but it may affect the prestige of the US military in the Middle East in the long run, and may further reduce its influence in the Middle East.For oil prices, it may be positive in the medium and long term. The results of the OPEC meeting
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06-01
SPX Daily - Reversal or Retest?
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ While a technical bounce or muted session was a chance for today, the possibility for a decline resuming next week remained.However, the outcome surpassed expectations, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The price action bounced decisively at the 50DMA zone. My post at 1:30PM anticipated the bounce after a very ugly morning. Price surged 1,15% after the post.The reclaim of $5215 is a positive sign, but caution is still warranted. The bearish MACD crossover, as analyzed in other charts and the Weekly Compass, can sometimes precede temporary price spikes before the new trend resumes.Other element to be cautious about is the weekly chart, let me know you're interested in an update here reposting this chart.
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06-01
BTC: $68461 was lost
BTC: $68461 was lost, and a bearish MACD crossover anticipated this week’s fall.What was interesting from the latest Weekly Compass published, was not only this analysis but the comparison with previous tops.This weekend edition comes with monthly charts for BTC, U.S. Indexes, mega-caps and more.Imagehttps://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1796613556575600783
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06-04
TSLA Daily Chart - Will TSLA $173.6 level hold as support again in June?
This volume platform has been forming for a month now.The Weekly Compass, analyzing the weekly chart, indicated a significant price movement is likely on the horizon.The question is: Will the $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $173.6 level hold as support again in June, just as it did with near-perfect symmetry in May?✅On the other hand, the 100-day moving average has been acting as resistance, rejecting price advances⚠️.The roof is moving down while the floor remains flat.Which technical indicator or pattern would you add to decipher direction?Intriguing.Imagehttps://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1797757492664971472
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06-01
A bounce or muted session was possible?
Do you want to know why I wrote yesterday that a bounce or muted session was possible on Friday?There are three reasons, this is the first one: $DJIA(.DJI)$ : Price clashed with the lower Bollinger Band while Stochastic were curling up.That simple, the index without $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ was bottoming relative to the bands and fast oscillators.On the other hand, a bearish MACD crossover is a halo to consider in the indexes, price action has to demonstrate its bullish direction next week. Daily volume looks promising on that bullish daily candle.There are two more reasons, please waiting!Imagehttps://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1796694875057885356
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06-01
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples MAY27-MAY31
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $AppFolio(APPF)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Software sentiment
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06-01
Last May there were only 3 software companies trading >10x NTM rev. Today that figure is 10
Last May there were only 3 software companies trading >10x NTM rev. Today that figure is 10Last May the median multiple for the highest multiple software companies (top 5) was 10.1x. Today the top 5 median is 16xLast May the median software multiple was 5.0x, today it's 5.2xToday feels like a bloodbath in software (and it is), but sentiment was worse just 12 months ago...The most expensive software companies still have a lot of room to drop if we're going back to May '23Below is my May 23 post: 👀 There's now only 3 cloud software companies trading >10x NTM rev. Snowflake at 15.2x, Veeva at 10.8x and Cloudflare at 10.5x $Snowflake(SNOW)$ at 50x NTM FCF, $Veeva(VEEV)$ at 30x NTM FCF, and
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06-01
Was CRM weakness on AI cannibalization?
Is Q1 software weakness due to:Not to lead the witness, but I just don’t buy the AI cannibalization…sure maybe that happens down the road, but I don’t think it’s happening yet. For everyone blaming $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ weakness on AI cannibalization, who did the cannibalizing? In large enterprises they’re not rebuilding a crm with AI with some open source model…way too complicated to rip out an existing CRM and all the workflows associated with it. I don’t know if any “gen AI crm” stealing $100m in rev from Salesforce…I think the answer is a slight combo of all - macro did get a bit weaker. Q4 budget flush did pull forward some Q1 spend, and then everyone a bit more cautious to really tap into 2024 budgets this early in the year. And then on the A
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06-01
Weekly Macro Themes - US tech stocks are increasingly priced for perfection
This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ 1. Stocks vs Bonds: Stocks are expensive vs bonds and outright, while bonds are cheap. But to have conviction in bonds outperforming stocks you need a strong recession/bear market signal (none yet).2. Defensives: Relative value is extreme cheap, positioning and market cap weight at record l
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06-01
Hang Seng is reacting to PMI by erasing all of its gains earlier
China's official PMIs for May are out with a triple miss. Manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs all coming in below expectations and lower than April's reading. Some of this weakness in manufacturing can be attributed to the Labor Day week holiday, while services easing off a bit definitely a downer. $HSI(HSI)$ is reacting to this by erasing all of its gains earlier in the day. $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF(EWH)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ $JD.com(JD)$
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06-02
Why a SPX technical bounce was possible? Second reason!
The second reason why a bounce was a possibility for S $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in the middle of the bearish impulse, was the oversold McClellan Oscillator, which as posted on Wednesday night, it had crossed 70 and a bounce was expected "soon".The oscillator crossed -70, which is a notable inflection point as it is highlighted below the red horizontal line.Is this an absolute bottom signal?No, it works well to time bounces, but now it's time for price action to show continuation, since this oscillator can present divergences with price, that means higher lows in the oscillator and lower lows in price, as it happened in Q3 2023. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ
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06-02
ETH - Bullish Above Downtrend
ETHUSD - Daily Channel ShiftETHUSD: ETHUSD - Daily Channel ShiftDaily Gaussian Channel example showing a shift from the bear state to bull This observation leads me to believe we are in for more upsides for the bulls Lets goStrong Monthly Altseason Argument ETHBTCETHBTC: Strong Monthly Altseason Argument ETHBTCThe Gaussian Channel shows a bullish trend on this Monthly timeframe with a strong bounce off the middle line of the channel. This as a point of reversal allows ETHUSD and other altcoins to out perform BTC on a Monthly scale. I think BTC will Top very early compared to that of Ethereum and other altcoins.TOTAL2 - Bullish Above DowntrendTOTAL2: TOTAL2 - Bullish Above Downtrend A down trend can be drawn using the previous highs peaks Price has risen above this trend line currently and
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06-02
Market Mania Fades: Cracks Emerge, Key Reversals Signals Validated, Now What?
Did Friday's Afternoon Rally Invalidate Weekly Bearish Setups? A Deep Dive with Monthly & Weekly ChartsFrom Compass at the Top Last Week, to Compass in the Storm TodayAs mentioned last week, underlying weaknesses existed, there were cracks below the surface actually since two weeks ago. The major US indexes finally faced rejection at crucial annual resistance levels, including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The current price action aligns perfectly with the analysis written in the previous Weekly Compass.Everything seemed bullish last week, so what changed?The $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ euphoria temporarily delayed the pullback. $DJIA(.DJI)$
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06-02
Portfolio at the end of May 2024: FCF ROC = 36%
Portfolio at the end of May 2024.April performance: 5.0% YTD performance: 16.6%FCF ROC = 36%FCF / share CAGR (5yr) = 23% FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.90FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 5%FCF Yield = 2.94%Interest expense = 6% of operating profit Change in share count (5yr) = -9%There were no outright sales or purchases. The top contributors to performance were $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ . The only detractor from performance was $Fortinet(FTNT)$ .https://x.com/long_equity/status/1796864747247108295
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06-02
AZN Aims for $80 Billion in Revenue by 2030?
In May 2014, $AstraZeneca PLC(AZN)$ , the world's sixth-largest pharmaceutical company by market capitalization, set itself a lofty goal: to surpass $45 billion in annual revenue by 2023. Wall Street was skeptical, calling it overly optimistic. But guess what? AstraZeneca actually hit that milestone, and over the past decade, its total return, including dividends, has outpaced the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ .Now, let's fast-forward to May 21, 2024. During an investor conference, AstraZeneca drops a bombshell: they aim to hit $80 billion in sales by 2030, a whopping 30% higher than Wall Street's predictions. Just like 10 years ago, some analysts are skeptical, wondering if this pharma giant can really achieve such
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06-03
Options Equity Put/Call Ratio
And this is the third reason why a bounce on Friday was possible.This is an indicator used in technical analysis to gauge market sentiment.Ratio > 1: This indicates that more put options are being traded compared to call options. An extreme bearish sentiment in the market, this works as a contrarian indicator.It reached 0.8 on Thursday, below 1, but trading is about analyzing the current context, and the spike was relevant considering all 2024.Is this error proof? No, the green circles show bullish outcomes (working as contrarian indicator), the red ones bearish continuation in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and yellow ones a delayed bullish outcome for SP500.I have posted this indicator a couple of times, as I do with the McClellan Oscillator.So, McClell
TOPGood call on using the Equity Put/Call Ratio as an indicator
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