Since the crash last October, the weakness in crypto has not eased. With ETH breaking below 2,000 last week and BTC approaching the 60,000 level, the crypto complex has essentially been abandoned by the market. This also means its value as a leading indicator is no longer valid. After last week’s wide-range swings, precious metals are expected to enter a period of back-and-forth between bulls and bears.
Using Bitcoin as the reference point, price broke below two key levels in a relatively short time: 100,000 and 80,000/75,000. The market’s rebound attempts have been feeble and did not even reach 100,000. Price has now fallen back to the lows from before Trump was elected; if this zone also breaks, there is basically open space below. This area also marks where many ETFs initially built positions, and if a long squeeze (forced selling into falling prices) develops, the consequences could be severe.
That said, judging from last week’s action, bulls will not give up their last fortress easily. This implies a short-term corrective rebound, but the upside may be limited. Once above 80,000, new selling pressure is expected to emerge. The better scenario is a tug-of-war; the weaker scenario is a quick drop after a rebound. Of course, this will also depend on external headlines and the performance of other assets, but sticking with selling into strength remains the top choice for quite a long time going forward.
$Bitcoin(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$
Precious metals
Compared with crypto, precious metals have also seen a sizable pullback recently—silver in particular has fallen by nearly half from its highs—but the risk of an accelerated drop in the near term is not large. From last week’s performance, the “old tradition” of silver weaker than gold looks likely to return. On one hand, this may mean the long-term silver bull market has ended; on the other hand, if gold remains resilient, the market will most likely fall into a range-bound phase. Before the prior bull market accelerated, gold once went through three months of sideways consolidation.
$Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2603(QImain)$ $Silver - Mar 2026(SI2603)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$
The current high–low range is clearly larger than it was back then, so the consolidation period is biased toward being somewhat shorter. As for whether the next phase after consolidation is a renewed bull market or a prolonged decline, honestly, it cannot be determined yet.
But the previous supply-and-demand narrative clearly does not hold up. Still, in an environment where global politics is shifting to the “right,” gold should theoretically have fundamental support. However, in this round we can also see a clear pattern of liquidity being shifted around—robbing Peter to pay Paul. In other words, if other assets fall further, that could also trigger a decline in gold, or cause gold to “catch down” later. Fortunately, that is a medium-to-long-term decision; in the short term, it is enough to look for suitable opportunities to sell high and buy low.
From the way precious metals are behaving, the first choice on the long side remains gold, while silver, platinum, and palladium can be placed on the short list. Among these, silver has higher volatility, so both risk and opportunity are more pronounced.
$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2604(1OZmain)$ $E-mini Gold - main 2604(QOmain)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$
Strategy
Our previously established EUR long position remains unchanged: after a clear rise, adjust the stop-loss to the entry level at 1.1615 to ensure the position cannot lose, and keep the target unchanged.
Last week’s silver short was too far away and had no chance to be filled, so this week we will focus mainly on buying gold on dips. Place two pending limit buy orders at 4655 and 4575, each for half size; set the stop-loss below 4420; set targets at 5370 and 5610. Also place one limit sell order for gold at 5510, with a stop-loss above 5610 and a target at 5010.
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