Fed Chairman Jay Powell shocked the market yesterday when he implied that the final rate that the Fed hikes to will be higher than the market was thinking. At the same time, he said that they might slow down the rate of increases.This shocked the market because they believed that the Fed would be finished tightening by March of next year at about 5%. Now they are thinking much higher, perhaps even to 6%.The market actually believes that inflation will start to come down pretty quickly by March 2023 but take a year or so to decline to the Fed’s target of 2%.But Jay is right and the market is wrong, from one perspective.There are several problems: Inflation may come down next year but very little The recession will cause governments to boost transfer payment keeping inflation high The Fed Fu
ZSmain (Soybeans - main 2501)
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How To Profit From Powell’s Non-Pivot
How To Profit From Powell’s Non-Pivot
ZS_F Forecasting The Rally And Selling In Blue Box
ZS_F Forecasting The Rally And Selling In Blue BoxAugust 10, 2022ByDaud BhattiIn this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of ZS_F (Soybean futures) published in members area of the website. As our members knew, we’ve been favoring the short side in ZS_F (Soybean futures) due to incomplete bearish sequence down from June 9, 2022 peak against July 29, 2022 peak. ZS_F cycle from July 29, 2022 peak ended at 1390 on August 3, 2022 as an impulse Elliott wave structure and then it started bouncing. This pull back took the form of Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern and members knew it was nothing more than another selling opportunity. In the remainder of the article, we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and talk about the blue box se
ZS_F Forecasting The Rally And Selling In Blue Box
Food prices remain high
Prices of agricultural commodities are falling, but as production also falls, hunger threatens to become an increasing problem. Even before the agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the transportation of grain across the Black Sea, agricultural commodity prices were under pressure, helped by fears of recession, a good harvest in Russia and hopes of resuming grain exports from Ukraine. Yet the underlying factors that drove prices upward are unchanged. The war in Ukraine is just one of many factors influencing food prices. Besides war, climate change is also playing an increasing role.Because of the war, Ukraine exported 40% less grain in June than in the same month in 2021. When farmers cannot sell their grain, they do not have the means to buy new seeds and fertilise the land. However, h
Food prices remain high
Macro factors push down the prices of agricultural products
Price changes this weekBetter weather and fears of economic recession have led to an overall liquidation of commodities, pushing market prices lower this week. However, since most crop yields have yet to be determined, improving weather alone will not reduce the risk premium of current prices. There is still the risk that falling yields will push up prices.With the acceleration of winter harvest, wheat prices have fallen the most. Although the crop situation of winter wheat still shows low yield, the market must be under certain harvest pressure. In our view, the main reason for most of the price decline last week was the macro liquidation of commodities.The prices of almost all important commodities have fallen for weeks (see the chart below). Moreover, if the theme of recession contin
Macro factors push down the prices of agricultural products
Agricultural Commodities Trading Possibilities You Should Know
First, the views of all sectors of the market on agricultural products At the weekend, I discussed the current market situation of agricultural products with large domestic oil index enterprises. Fundamentally speaking, when the price rises to the present level, everyone is a little confused. The confused place is that all the favorable conditions have been put in front of us, and the production reduction and future demand are clear, but after all, the price is already at a high level,How much space there is for spot traders in the future. In addition to the known planting cost and profit rate, and in addition to thinking that it is still optimistic for a long time, there is not much tendency in the short-term and medium-term direction.As far as financial capital is concerned, holding comm
Agricultural Commodities Trading Possibilities You Should Know
Commodities vs equities
The investment case for commodities has clearly improved with the war in Ukraine, and the market has not gone unnoticed. Last week saw a euphoric spike in several commodities. We are only in the first phase of the commodity supercycle. Inventories are still low and investment is still insufficient. Don’t count on more supply, in fact, prices can only fall because of a drop in demand. Now it’s hard to determine where that point is. In the past, we spent a larger portion of our income on commodities, including energy. Moreover, this time around, governments are responding to rising energy prices by compensating consumers and also companies for them. Such subsidies allow commodity prices to rise further. At the same time, any commodity supercycle is not a straight line upwards. The moment the
Commodities vs equities
Apart From Oil Futures, Agricultural Commodities Skyrocket!
Commodity index expected to post biggest weekly gain since 1960. In recent weeks, in addition to $Light Crude Oil - main 2204(CLmain)$ , another futures gainer that may be ignored is agricultural commodities futures. Let's look at the current trends of $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$ and $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ In just two days, $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$ has risen around 20%. $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ and
Apart From Oil Futures, Agricultural Commodities Skyrocket!
Tonga Valcano Eruption: the Effect to Airlines, Cruise and Agricultural
Tonga has always been a country prone to earthquakes and volcanoes. Due to its special geographical location, it happens to be located on the "convergent plate boundary" between the Pacific plate and the Indo-Australian plate. It is also the most active volcanic and seismically active Pacific Rim arc on the earth. Volcanic eruption on H8 satellite image Source: tropicaltidibits According to estimates from the Weathermodels, the height of the volcanic eruption is at least 25 kilometers. Volcanic eruptions produce large amounts of volcanic ash. Volcanic ash is a large mass of crackling lightning, which itself can absorb radio signals, interfere and absorb. The Effect on Market Airlines and Cruise Most of the areas where tsunami warnings ar
Tonga Valcano Eruption: the Effect to Airlines, Cruise and Agricultural