Following the conclusion of the China-US summit in Busan, South Korea, the trade war between the two countries has effectively been put on pause, providing a "reassuring measure" for the global economy. The 24% retaliatory tariffs have been suspended for one year. This one-year suspension is significant because it coincides with the upcoming US midterm elections, and there remains considerable uncertainty whether the Republican Party, led by Trump, will maintain control over both chambers of Congress, which will directly impact the trajectory of US trade negotiations. From the current perspective, at least for one year the market's worries about China-US trade frictions can greatly ease. With the exception of precious metals, this is generally positive news for other asset classes.The succ

Next week marks the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting. Due to the significantly lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll data in August and September, the focus of the Fed’s meeting will be on the magnitude of the rate cut. A 25 basis point cut is market-expected and can be understood as a hawkish cut, not necessarily positive news. A 50 basis point cut would slightly exceed market expectations, so attention should be paid to the Fed Chair’s speech to judge the path and speed of further cuts. If large-scale cuts continue, the market will likely respond enthusiastically.How will U.S. stock indices react to the Fed meeting?Although weak economic data puts fundamental pressure on U.S. stock indices, the considerable room for rate cuts by the Fed means the market has not yet priced i

ZS_F Forecasting The Rally And Selling In Blue BoxAugust 10, 2022ByDaud BhattiIn this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of ZS_F (Soybean futures) published in members area of the website. As our members knew, we’ve been favoring the short side in ZS_F (Soybean futures) due to incomplete bearish sequence down from June 9, 2022 peak against July 29, 2022 peak. ZS_F cycle from July 29, 2022 peak ended at 1390 on August 3, 2022 as an impulse Elliott wave structure and then it started bouncing. This pull back took the form of Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern and members knew it was nothing more than another selling opportunity. In the remainder of the article, we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and talk about the blue box se

Prices of agricultural commodities are falling, but as production also falls, hunger threatens to become an increasing problem. Even before the agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the transportation of grain across the Black Sea, agricultural commodity prices were under pressure, helped by fears of recession, a good harvest in Russia and hopes of resuming grain exports from Ukraine. Yet the underlying factors that drove prices upward are unchanged. The war in Ukraine is just one of many factors influencing food prices. Besides war, climate change is also playing an increasing role.Because of the war, Ukraine exported 40% less grain in June than in the same month in 2021. When farmers cannot sell their grain, they do not have the means to buy new seeds and fertilise the land. However, h

Price changes this weekBetter weather and fears of economic recession have led to an overall liquidation of commodities, pushing market prices lower this week. However, since most crop yields have yet to be determined, improving weather alone will not reduce the risk premium of current prices. There is still the risk that falling yields will push up prices.With the acceleration of winter harvest, wheat prices have fallen the most. Although the crop situation of winter wheat still shows low yield, the market must be under certain harvest pressure. In our view, the main reason for most of the price decline last week was the macro liquidation of commodities.​​​The prices of almost all important commodities have fallen for weeks (see the chart below). Moreover, if the theme of recession contin

First, the views of all sectors of the market on agricultural products At the weekend, I discussed the current market situation of agricultural products with large domestic oil index enterprises. Fundamentally speaking, when the price rises to the present level, everyone is a little confused. The confused place is that all the favorable conditions have been put in front of us, and the production reduction and future demand are clear, but after all, the price is already at a high level,How much space there is for spot traders in the future. In addition to the known planting cost and profit rate, and in addition to thinking that it is still optimistic for a long time, there is not much tendency in the short-term and medium-term direction.As far as financial capital is concerned, holding comm

The investment case for commodities has clearly improved with the war in Ukraine, and the market has not gone unnoticed. Last week saw a euphoric spike in several commodities. We are only in the first phase of the commodity supercycle. Inventories are still low and investment is still insufficient. Don’t count on more supply, in fact, prices can only fall because of a drop in demand. Now it’s hard to determine where that point is. In the past, we spent a larger portion of our income on commodities, including energy. Moreover, this time around, governments are responding to rising energy prices by compensating consumers and also companies for them. Such subsidies allow commodity prices to rise further. At the same time, any commodity supercycle is not a straight line upwards. The moment the

Commodity index expected to post biggest weekly gain since 1960. In recent weeks, in addition to $Light Crude Oil - main 2204(CLmain)$ , another futures gainer that may be ignored is agricultural commodities futures.  Let's look at the current trends of $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$ and $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ In just two days, $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$  has risen around 20%.  $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ and