4 issues that Michael Burry and Warren Buffett seeing that we aren’t1. China’s economic meltdown:Traders worry that weakness in the world’s second largest economy could affect the global outlook. China’s consumer spending, factory production and investment in fixed assets all slowed further in July from a year ago.2. Russia and Ukraine’s impact on inflation:Heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.3. US economy is slowing down:US economy is still showing signs of a slowdown. Shoppers have tightened their purse strings in the face of higher prices and borrowing costs, focusing on paying for necessitie
ZWmain (Wheat - main 2407)
Please go to Tiger Trade for futures detailsDownload APP
4 Issues that Michael Burry and Warren Buffett Seeing
4 Issues that Michael Burry and Warren Buffett Seeing
5 mins quick post June is here, and my thesis from Jan is still wrong But I changed my mind in March (Like i said in my March post) The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ maintains strength Commodity currencies are down. The Canadian loonie weak. $Canadian Dollar - main 2212(CADmain)$ The price of wheat has dropped a lot. $Wheat - Dec 2023(ZW2312)$ Despite possible El Niño weather. I didnt dare to bet due to conflicting views. Hindsight 20/20 Will my Jan thesis continue to be wrong Or will it reverse So far seems like same old same old 2% inflation still a myth Personally, it was a good month. Mitsubishi Electric,
What commodities will move in the second year of Russia-Ukraine War?
Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price might reverse if Russia refuse to renew the export deal.Energy products are the main focus in this war since Russia is the world’s key energy exporter. NYMEX WTI crude oil $Light Crude Oil - main 2301(CLmain)$ price started from USD92.10 as of the close of 23 Feb 2022, and reached an intraday high of USD130.5 per barrel in March. NYMEX Natural gas
What commodities will move in the second year of Russia-Ukraine War?
Wheat ($ZW_F) Forecasting The Decline After Elliott Wave Double Three
Wheat ($ZW_F) Forecasting The Decline After Elliott Wave Double ThreeJanuary 16, 2023ByEWF Vlada Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at theElliott Wave chartscharts of Wheat Futures ($ZW_F) published in members area of the website. As our members know Wheat Futures is trading within the cycle from the 950’6 peak. Recently ZW_F made short term recovery that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. It made clear 7 swings from the lows and complete at the extreme zone. In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and forecast. Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern Double three is the common pattern in the market
Wheat ($ZW_F) Forecasting The Decline After Elliott Wave Double Three
Panning for Gold I: 2022 major global assets performances review
By Tiger Trade Asset Management Research teamThe scenes of winning the 2022 Winter Olympics are still vivid, and the jubilation of the FIFA World Cup finals is still lingering. Although 2022 has been a good year for sports the stock markets have taken a hit due to various factors including pandemic control, inflation, interest rate hikes andwar.Looking forward to 2023, pandemic control on the east coast of the ocean has been optimised, the inflation on the west coast of the ocean has passed itspeak, and the cold winter in Eurasia is fading away.However, with all the changes that 2022 brought about economically, what will 2023 look like for investors? To get a better understanding let's look back at how the major assets performed in 2022.1. Performance of Major AssetsIn order to assist
Panning for Gold I: 2022 major global assets performances review
The Trading week ahead: Update Monday morning UK 31/10/22: INTEREST RATES in focus this week, Australia (Tues), US (Wed), UK (Thu) all expected to rise again. End of week also sees non-farm data release. Euro inflation keeps climbing to new highs. $Wheat - main 2212(ZWmain)$futures spike up (see attached chart) on Russia abandoning grain deal. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$want to buy into $GLENCORE PLC(GLEN.UK)$?! US earnings fail from the big boys last week. Another busy US earnings week ahead - see below for my picks. Earlier today: AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) as expected. Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Oc
Food prices remain high
Prices of agricultural commodities are falling, but as production also falls, hunger threatens to become an increasing problem. Even before the agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the transportation of grain across the Black Sea, agricultural commodity prices were under pressure, helped by fears of recession, a good harvest in Russia and hopes of resuming grain exports from Ukraine. Yet the underlying factors that drove prices upward are unchanged. The war in Ukraine is just one of many factors influencing food prices. Besides war, climate change is also playing an increasing role.Because of the war, Ukraine exported 40% less grain in June than in the same month in 2021. When farmers cannot sell their grain, they do not have the means to buy new seeds and fertilise the land. However, h
Food prices remain high
The Significant Impact On Raw Materials of The Russian & Ukraine War
This economic and environmental progress has been under attack since the start of the Russian invasion, setting back hopes for a green and sustainable economy in Ukraine.The Statista designed a chart highlighting the Raw Materals( Energy, Grains, Metals) prices changes since January 2022, of which are signigicant impact from the Russian war with Ukraine is significant .Raw Materials Fetch Premium Prices:Russia and Ukraine have a significant influence on the world economy due to their role as suppliers of a number of essential raw materials. These include fossil fuels, agricultural commodities as well as several metals.The above chart shows Coal price&n
The Significant Impact On Raw Materials of The Russian & Ukraine War
Hard Red Winter Wheat: Towards Bread Shortages in 2023?
Hard Red Winter Wheat: Towards Bread Shortages in 2023?July 10, 2022ByEWF HelgiHard Red Winter Wheat is one of the grain commodities, along with soft red wheat, corn, soybeans and others. Within the wheat family, first of all, there is a fundamental difference between two wheat types. Soft wheat is low in protein and is basically used in cakes in pastries. By contrast, hard wheat has a higher content of protein and it founds itself in breads and hard baked goods. Some time ago, trading of hard wheat took place at Kansas City Board of Trade. Then, it moved to Chicago. One can trade hard wheat futures at Chicago Board of Trade under the ticker $KE. Hereby, the contract size is 5’000 bushels (300’000 pounds) each and the prices are in Dollars US per 100 bushel.In thelast article from Septembe
Hard Red Winter Wheat: Towards Bread Shortages in 2023?
If you follow me for awhile, you would have seen my posts and videos on YouTube. Do subscribe to my YouTube channel to show your appreciation if you like my content. The YouTube channel link will be in the comment section$Wheat - main 2207(ZWmain)$$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$$Copper - Jul 2022(HG2207)$$XIAOMI-W(01810)$$Alibaba(BABA)$
@Hopehope赋予希望:$Wheat - main 2207(ZWmain)$$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$$Alibaba(BABA)$$NIO Inc.(NIO)$$CME Bitcoin - main 2203(BTCmain)$if you subscribe to my YouTube channel, you would have been aware when I said get out of wheat futures long when it was 1145 usd. It is now at 972 and may make even further downleg.
$Wheat - main 2207(ZWmain)$$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$$Alibaba(BABA)$$NIO Inc.(NIO)$$CME Bitcoin - main 2203(BTCmain)$if you subscribe to my YouTube channel, you would have been aware when I said get out of wheat futures long when it was 1145 usd. It is now at 972 and may make even further downleg.
Commodity Report #52
The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,3% higherThe energy sector was mixed. While refined oil products were correcting, crude was unchanged, only natgas was strong over the week.Metals were the strongest sub-sector over the week.Grains were mostly unchanged. Soybeans and Meal put in a solid performance but talked about those two in The Kuemmerle Report.Softs were mixed as well, with Orange Juice and Sugar Nr.1 on the winner side. Crypto was modestly lower.BTW The Commodity Report just turned 1!Here I just want to say thank you for all the tremendous love and feedback the community is giving me so far on this journey. My goal is to provide the most practical commodity trading research out there. This will also be the aim over the next year. Thanks guys! BTW If you would like
Commodity Report #52
Commodity Report #47
About China's massive food hoarding and further rising energy prices will result in even higher food prices in the near term.The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 4,6% higher and therefore made new highs.Oil-related futures ended their correction and surged higher. Natgas is still the most bullish play in town, as we warned you in The Kuemmerle Report over three weeks ago, with a long natgas setup.The commodity bull market is still intact and buying opportunities look in most markets much more lucrative than selling signals.Here is my latest playbook:If energy prices keep rising at that pace - inflation will become even worseLast week we saw crude oil up 8% and natural gas up over 16%. In a single week! Natgas also surpassed the 7$ mark and is now at hemispheres we haven’t see
Commodity Report #47
Commodities vs equities
The investment case for commodities has clearly improved with the war in Ukraine, and the market has not gone unnoticed. Last week saw a euphoric spike in several commodities. We are only in the first phase of the commodity supercycle. Inventories are still low and investment is still insufficient. Don’t count on more supply, in fact, prices can only fall because of a drop in demand. Now it’s hard to determine where that point is. In the past, we spent a larger portion of our income on commodities, including energy. Moreover, this time around, governments are responding to rising energy prices by compensating consumers and also companies for them. Such subsidies allow commodity prices to rise further. At the same time, any commodity supercycle is not a straight line upwards. The moment the
Commodities vs equities
Apart From Oil Futures, Agricultural Commodities Skyrocket!
Commodity index expected to post biggest weekly gain since 1960. In recent weeks, in addition to $Light Crude Oil - main 2204(CLmain)$ , another futures gainer that may be ignored is agricultural commodities futures. Let's look at the current trends of $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$ and $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ In just two days, $Wheat - main 2205(ZWmain)$ has risen around 20%. $Corn - main 2205(ZCmain)$ and
Apart From Oil Futures, Agricultural Commodities Skyrocket!
With the Russian-Ukraine conflict, let us look at the impact on the markets and identify opportunities for some trades.With Russia and Ukraine combined for exporting 30% of the global wheat supply, it is no surprise that the price of wheat has hit record prices. Looking at the major export items from Russia, we can also identify the various commodities that are likely to be affected in the coming months. It may be worth our time to explore some of these for short duration trade, especially for palladium, platinum and other food produce.We can expect energy prices to rise as Russia is one of the biggest suppliers of oil and natural gases to Europe. Once the conflict has been resolved, we can expect the prices to stabilize.
The escalation of Russia-Ukraine crisis could prove a buying opportunity
The escalation of Russia-Ukraine incident triggered a risk aversion market? The events in Russia and Ukraine are rather confusing, and neither side can see that there is much action, but the United States and the European Union tell the world seriously: "Russia will invade Ukraine in the near future". It is not known whether Russia will really attack Ukraine, but the capital market now thinks it is possible to start a war. Therefore, last Friday night, crude oil, gold and wheat all fluctuated abnormally. Next, I will discuss with you what trading opportunities there are in this safe-haven market if it really starts. I. Crude oil When Russia and Ukraine start fighting, European and American countries will definitely sanction Russia, which will hinder Russia's crude oil export, which will un
The escalation of Russia-Ukraine crisis could prove a buying opportunity