Entering the new year, it's time to update the forward-looking series of anticipation for this year's market overview. I have shared and discussed this series with you every January since 2019. It is obvious to all how accurate it is. Although the details are slightly biased, the general direction is generally correct. I suggest you keep it for later use and continue to review it later. Be prepared for more investment. As usual, let's start with the U.S. stock index.Recently, some domestic economists are discussing the situation of the U.S. stock market, believing that the U.S. stock index will burst and fall in the next 3-6 months. Although I am skeptical about whether the data listed in the report will burst within 3-6 months, I agree that there is a bubble in the US stock index.Looking

2025 is coming soon, and I wish all investors a successful start!!!Different from previous years, since January 2025, the financial market has ushered in an important drama. Trump, the "new emperor", will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and the policies and measures implemented after his inauguration will become the focus of the financial market in the future.Because Trump, a businessman, is good at negotiation and flexibility, before the policy is fully implemented, the variables are still large, so the financial market will also cause corresponding fluctuations due to this change. Of course, after the fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the opportunity.Will U.S. stocks undergo deep adjustments?I have seen some analysis reports recently, and I am not very optimis

In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held its last interest rate meeting at the end of this year. As in the past, the results of the meeting itself have been fully expected by the market. What is important is the dot plot after the meeting and the expectation of next year's interest rate path revealed by the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech, which is the core that affects market prices. After last week's meeting, gold prices in the stock market plummeted.It shows that the market has lowered its expectation of the number of interest rate cuts next year. I'm afraid this expectation will not change until the new president takes office and the next interest rate meeting, so I hope everyone will remain cautious about the market.Does it have any impact on the US s

This Thursday night is the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting. The continued interest rate cut of 25 basis points at this meeting has been fully expected by the market, so the market focus will be on the wording of the Fed meeting announcement and the content of Powell's subsequent speech. As Trump will officially take office next year, how the chairman of the Federal Reserve deals with this "new" president is also one of the key points of this meeting. To put it simply, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to avoid "political" issues with a neutral position at this meeting. The media are happy to speculate whether the Federal Reserve is with the new president. " Whether to "do it o

After Trump was elected president of the United States, the market once believed that there could be a peaceful solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a short period of time. But instead，the media revealed that the U.S. government had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons provided by the United States to attack targets in Russia in depth, then Russia updated its nuclear policy, and then the two countries began to fire missiles to each other to escalate the conflict, which dispelled the market from Russia. The idea that the Ukrainian conflict can end in a short time has renewed risk aversion in the market.Gold prices have soared strongly, and new highs are expectedSince the conflict has escalated, the war premium (risk aversion) squeezed in the last two weeks has returned, cau

There were not many big events last week, but the market was not small at all. Since the US election, nothing in the financial market has risen smoothly except the US dollar and Bitcoin, and even the varieties that Trump intends to suppress have fallen one after another. At present, the market is still in the honeymoon period when the market expects the effectiveness of Trump's policies, and the main line has not changed much, which means that before Trump really takes office, strong varieties will continue to be strong, while weak varieties are more likely to continue to fall. Everyone should pay attention to it.The chairman of the Federal Reserve said at an event in Dallas last week that the current recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is good, the labor market is stable, and although i

In last week's US election, Trump finally won, and the market entered the honeymoon period of Trump's trading. Although Trump will not officially take office until January next year, his remarks and preparatory actions have made the market full of expectations. The recent market fluctuations are all related to his words and deeds, so everyone should pay attention to tracking them. The following is a slight list of the relevant trading opportunities after Trump won the election for your reference.The U.S. stock index differentiates, keeping a close eye on the Dow RussellBefore the election, I analyzed with you that Trump's relevant policies will be relatively beneficial to small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional industries, so the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000

The U.S. election has entered the final stage. Although the last voting day is November 6th, there are already a lot of voting data for reference due to mail-in ballots and early voting. Generally speaking, no candidate can win shoo-in at present. Let's wait for the results on Tuesday to observe the final changes in the market and whether supporters of both parties are satisfied with the process of the results after the final results are released. If they are dissatisfied, there may be riots similar to those in 2020, which may bring further turmoil to the market, and this turmoil may be global.The impact of U.S. stock indexesAfter the presidential election in the United States, the motivation to maintain the stability of the American stock market will gradually disappear. The continuation

After the U.S. stock market closed over the weekend, it was suddenly reported that Israel's retaliation plan for the Iranian attack had been implemented. Judging from the time when it occurred, it was obvious that Israel chose to close the financial market because it did not want things to expand. This is related to the approaching time of the U.S. election. Not unrelated. At the same time, the focus of Israel's retaliation is to attack Iran's related military facilities, avoiding crude oil and nuclear facilities, which is lower than market expectations. Therefore, if Iran does not take further actions after Israel's retaliation, the market will return to calm. But the question is, will Iran suck it up?Profound impact on the crude oil marketIf this "retaliation cycle" does not have a stron

The U.S. general election will enter the voting stage on November 5th, and it is less than a month before the polling day. Looking at the current U.S. general election situation, there is still no candidate who can win.It is conceivable that there may still be many unexpected events affecting the election situation in the follow-up. Therefore, I suggest you wait and see what happens, and there is no need to speculate too much. However, because the platforms of the two candidates in this general election are quite different, whoever is elected will at least affect the policy changes in the next four years. Impact on U.S. stock indexes during the election periodFor the U.S. stock index, the general trend depends on the Federal Reserve. After all, it has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts,

During the National Day, the biggest thing in the external market was that Iran launched a large number of missile attacks on Israel on October 1 in response to a series of previous deaths of Iran's close leaders, which plunged the entire situation in the Middle East into a "cycle of revenge" and once again changed market expectations. The focus is reversed. As everyone in China is still immersed in the joy of the skyrocketing A-shares, there is little attention to the news of the external market. Therefore, it is estimated that except for a few commodities closely related to the external market, other commodities are expected to continue to run after the holiday.·1. U.S. stocks fluctuate at high levelsAlthough the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel has no direct impact on

The National Day holiday begins, and because the holiday time is too long, there will often be gaps in the domestic market. In order to make the domestic market gap sharply, it is necessary for the external market to fluctuate greatly during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the external market rarely spends it calmly during the National Day holiday. Everyone needs to look at the external market after the holiday. Trends, pay attention to sudden large fluctuations.The main economic event in the external market next week is the release of non-agricultural data. Since the Federal Reserve has opened the channel to cut interest rates, the focus of the market's attention has become the change in the speed of interest rate cuts. According to market expectations, they always like to go to extr

After a long-awaited call, the Federal Reserve finally began to enter the interest rate cut cycle after two years, and the rate of interest rate cut was 50 basis points slightly exceeding market expectations, which made the market full of expectations for the speed of future interest rate cuts. Regardless of the speed of interest rate cuts in the future, the interest rate cut cycle has already started, and the market will re-enter the game of inflation and recession in the future. Since there is still a lot of room for interest rate cuts, the market will still be relatively optimistic in the short term. Despite the fears of recession, under the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates more the recession, the risk of the U.S. stock index is still controllable, so there is no need to

The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. this Thursday night. The market has made it clear that the path of interest rate cuts has started. However, there are still differences on whether this meeting will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. This is also the focus of market fluctuations this week. 25 basis points is considered as a bad news. 50 basis points are considered bullish, and the market will react to this to a certain extent. As for between recession and interest rate cut, the market will make a choice during the movement. In fact, recession is more of a short-term worry. After all, the Federal Reserve still has a lot of room to cut interest rates, so I still think that if it falls too much, it is an opportunity to buy bottoms, whether it is commoditie

Entering September, The current market has been Shouting that it is worried about the economic recession. This worry has actually been said for two years, but it has only recently been taken seriously by the market as a reason for the decline. In fact, the difference between an economic recession and a crisis is that the recession is controllable, and the economy is just a little close, and it will pass if you tolerate it; Crises are different. Chain reactions occur frequently, and market confidence cannot be restored without heavy “drugs”. Therefore, only a slight recession does not necessarily require strong drugs for the Fed. There is no need to worry too much about the overall decline of the current market. If it falls too much, if it falls enough, the Fed will come out and say that it