As the year-end approaches, the market continues last week's trend, with relatively light trading volume. During such quiet periods, a short-term piece of news can often trigger significant market volatility, so everyone needs to pay slight attention (especially those chasing rallies). Over the weekend, the CME Group issued a major margin adjustment notice on December 26th, stating that it will comprehensively increase the performance margins for metal futures such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium after the close on Monday, December 29th.
Normally, this is just a routine exchange operation for high-volatility products. However, when a product experiences abnormally rapid one-sided movement in a short period, such news often leads to substantial volatility (though not necessarily a trend reversal). Moreover, since the margin increase takes effect after Monday's close, it implies that significant long and short position unwinding might occur on Monday, which could amplify price swings in precious metals. Therefore, friends engaged in short-term precious metals trading next week should pay attention to market rhythm. In domestic markets, extreme fluctuations equivalent to 2-4 daily price limits have frequently occurred in the past. While this is not inevitable, should it happen, don't be surprised—it's a normal release of market sentiment. Just be mindful.
When Will Silver's Frenzy End?
In fact, up to this point, the logic behind the silver short squeeze hasn't been very clear. If fundamentals don't provide a clear explanation, it should be viewed as a market sentiment game. In the short term, it appears to be caused by insufficient deliverable silver现货 in the futures market. However, history has repeatedly shown that所谓的 "shortages" are temporary. When supply is no longer tight, prices reverse. Therefore, the sustainability of silver's疯狂行情 entirely depends on the increase in registered silver warrants. If a sudden large number of deliverable warrants are registered, it will inevitably lead to a sharp reversal in silver futures prices. When that reversal happens, this historical high will likely be the peak for many years to come. Don't expect a buy-and-hold strategy to recover losses. Silver's speculative nature over the years hasn't changed—don't get trapped by market sentiment.
(The more frenzied silver becomes, the harder it is to bounce back in the subsequent adjustment.)
Will U.S. Stock Indices Be Affected?
The current volatility in the precious metals market has little correlation with economic data and follows a different logic than U.S. stock index fluctuations. Furthermore, the market is still awaiting the appearance of the Federal Reserve's "new chair" in January, so precious metals volatility has minimal impact on U.S. stock indices. Currently, U.S. stock indices are in a relatively poor trading period. The low level of option volatility indicates there are no news events currently causing market concern. Therefore, the strategy remains consistent with last week's: continue selling index put options at prices below the 20-week moving average, with expiration dates not extending beyond New Year's Day. Specific stop-loss and take-profit levels align with last week's post.
$NQ100指数主连 2603(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 2603(ESmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2603(YMmain)$ $黄金主连 2602(GCmain)$ $白银主连 2603(SImain)$
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