There are two important issues here for investors to understand. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ First: the global cyclicals vs defensives relative performance line recently capped out at the top end of its trend channel — this is something that signaled 3 major market peaks over the past decade.Hence, for the MSCI All Countries World Index (global equities), a red flag is clearly waving. So definitely step up your focus on risk management (take some time out to think about your plan, triggers, indicator set and framework).Second… some of you might be thinking, hey hang on — wait a minute, didn’t you just last week go on about the upside in cyclicals??Yes.“Old Cyclicals“See, the chart

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ There is an ongoing debate among portfolio managers and asset allocators when it comes to US vs Global equity allocations...Some say the US market has it all, no need to bother with global stocks. And armed with hefty helpings of recency bias, they have been right on this view for the past decade — where tech-heavy US equities have strongly outperformed (not to mention a strong US dollar hurting returns of offshore assets).Yet, proponents say global is cheap (and it is — cheap vs history, cheap vs US), offers diversification benefits, and undergoes long-term cycles of under/out-performance (and after 15-years of underperformance is due for a turn).But h

While all eyes are on surging gold prices, industrial metals have been quietly achieving… $iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust(GSG)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ A few months ago I outlined how industrial metals were at the center of several key macro/thematic cross currents, and my view on this if anything has become stronger.This chart is going to be the first to know about which “macro edge risks” play out this year: recession and deflation if it breaks support vs reacceleration and resurgence if it breaks higher.Not only is there increasing evidence of reacceleration in the data (leading indicators turning up, manufacturing PMI

Asset Class Returns in March 2024-Stocks up, bonds up-Stocks up more-Commodities also making a strong showingQ1 it's developed equities and commodities in the lead, fixed income and REITs lagging behind $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ ImageScreenshot 2024-04-02 083746.pngThe charts and tables below present market performance data for the assets we calculated capital market assumptions for.  Every effort has been made to ensure the analysis is accurate and correct, however we assume no liability for any errors or omissions or any representations made by users of this information.  Use at your own risk, and to all purposes your own respo

While gold $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ is riding high, assets in Gold ETFs are snoozing -- retail investors ain't buying it (central banks are though!). Thoughts:ImageWhen I last checked, the gold price (in US$) was making new all-time highs and apparently in the process of making the big breakout that everyone (in gold land at least) has been waiting for.And assets in gold ETFs?About -30% off their all-time high in 2020.Skepticism. Doubt. Apathy.Also, chartists will note that it looks to be coiling into a symmetrical triangle pattern. If the breakout in price holds and sees follow-through it could trigger a breakout in gold ETF assets — aka bandwagoning.By my analysis, a few things still need to go right for gold, but it sure is interesting to

This is one of the most interesting charts in my files right now…I’m actually almost reluctant to share it.It’s rare that you see such a compelling setup.We’re talking about commodities...And before you switch off !! —> it’s important to remember that when it comes to assets like this, there is both the direct opportunity (in the thing itself), but also the flow-on macro implications.And on both fronts this is a big deal.First a quick explainer on the chart: what we are looking at is the S&P GSCI “light energy“ (more diversified version) Commodities Index, and its associated 200-day moving average breadth indicator (proportion of individual commodities trading above their respective 200-day averages).Why is this chart interesting?Two main things.1. The index has successfully tested