Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained +16.4% in 2025 (+17.9% including dividends).(yet it lagged behind global stocks, which saw 30%+ returns).Investor sentiment is booming (yet economic confidence is glooming).Tech sector earnings are going vertical, non-tech is going sideways.Tech/mega cap valuations extreme expensive, non-tech/SMID cap cheap.Overall, it turned out to be a good year for US stocks and a great year for global stocks. As such, sentiment is riding high as most everyone is patting themselves on the back following the gains of 2025. Keeping and building on those gains in 2026 is going to take a balance of optimism and trend following, as well as realism around some of the risks bui

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Euphoria HeightsThe peak in this indicator at record highs helped forewarn of the April correction, but perhaps just as interesting is how it’s moved down again from a lower peak more recently. So an interesting one in retrospect, but also in reminding us not to get too complacent as risks build-up in the system.“sentiment has reached reco

Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given confidence shocks of last year and deterioration in some labor market indicators, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of t

Learnings and conclusions from this session…Valuation: commodities (asset class level) are cheap.Cycle: serious underinvestment in supply + cyclical demand upturn.Monetary: supporting the cyclical upturn is substantial monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: investor sentiment is lukewarm, allocations are historically low.Technicals: a new cyclical bull market is getting underway; still early.Overall, there’s growing evidence for a new cyclical bull market in commodities (following a cyclical bear market from 2022-24). This is likely to become a major macro theme in 2026 (not to mention a very interesting opportunity for investment in both commodity related stocks and commodity prices themselves). Check out the charts and datapoints below and let me know what you think in the comments.1. Follow the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Downturn Didn’t TurnIt looked like the property downturn in China was turning aroun

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. When it’s Obvious…  This chart made the list because it illustrates a key ru

Precious Metal ProcessionIn hindsight this turned out to be a prophetic chart, I first mentioned it in April, and what a spectacular catch-up run we’ve seen by Silver & Platinum. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Platinum - main 2601(PLmain)$ Gold Outperformance ProcessionI first featured this chart back in February, suggesting room for catch-up by the black line (gold vs stocks relative performance). And gold sure did outperform vs stocks this year (gold up +66% vs stocks up +17%) — but perhaps the bigger open question is will the black line catch-up even further? (and what will that mean for how the world looks if that happens…) $Gold - main 2602(GCmain

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ The “Presidential Cycle” points to a volatile and ranging 2026.Global stocks have significantly outperformed vs US stocks this year.Fund managers are running record low cash allocations.Mid-Cap stocks look cheap in absolute and relative terms.Rotation inflection points are emergi

1. Chinese Stocks: This chart and the thinking behind it helped in identifying one of the most underestimated and surprising strong performers in global markets this year. But that wasn’t the only part of the story.“2025 Surprise? Consensus does not see the possibility that Trade War 2.0 results in accelerated stimulus to counter headwinds –and a subsequent surge in domestic Chinese stocks (and the prospect that the disruptive new reformative policies potentially rattle expensive US stocks). While Chinese stocks are not without downside risk, there does appear to be an opportunity here.” (10 Jan 2025)2. China Tech: Chinese tech stocks staged a magnificent rally from significantly undervalued & underestimated levels. It was one of those classic contrarian setups, but also a major develo

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Tech is stumbling again (+Bitcoin languishing around the lows).Fed rate cuts are bringing policy settings into the sweet spot for stocks.Rate cuts near the ATH are bullish, and more cuts are likely.More companies are mentioning AI in earnings calls (+being rewarded for it).Sometimes the earnings story goes right the while price path goes wrong.Overall, there’s the Friday sell-off looking like an aftershock from the November correction and still a few weak spots lurking off the radar, but there’s also

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:1. Years ending in 6 (e.g. 2026) tend to see weaker price action.2. Insiders are buying-up (relatively cheap) Consumer Staples stocks.3. REITs see significant relative value (vs expensive stocks).4. IPO market activity is picking up, but not excessive.5. ETF market activity on the other hand looks very bubbly.Overall, probably the key message or takeaway from this week is that while there are some pockets of excess and risk-flags, there are still plenty of opportunities out there for those willing to look… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with

Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given policy uncertainty and confidence shocks from the chaotic start to the year, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of the cy

Golden Harbinger for CommoditiesWhile gold has more than doubled over the past couple of years, the rest of commodities have been stuck in a trading range.To the extent that some degree of the gold bull market reflects monetary easing and currency debasement, the logic of catch-up is one of monetary commodities (like gold) leading the charge and real-world activity-linked commodities playing catch-up later (just like what happened in 2020-22). $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ Valuation Indicators — Commodities vs GoldOne key clue for possible gold-commodity rotation or even just commodity catch-up is where the valuation indicators are sitting for gold vs commodities.Gold looks expensive, while commodities look cheap.Whether it ends up being rotation

Now, some of you might be thinking: hmm yeah, ok, but we just saw bonds crap the bed during the 2022 mini-bear-market; and both stocks AND bonds ended up falling during that episode. Then add to that the fact that bonds are still basically in a bear market, and it would not be at all surprising to see some push back on the above sentiments I espoused.And that’s actually a big part of the story here.Investors have been scared and scarred away from treasuries, particularly as stocks have gone from strength to strength. That’s a big reason for why sentiment is so bearish on bonds, and why allocations have been drifted by market movements and active rotation down to the lows highlighted in the chart above.It’s all part of the process of the market cycle, but I’d also hasten to point out that b

Investor allocations to bonds have reached the lowest point since 2007.We’ve seen this happen before.Bond allocations reached major lows at both of the last two major stock market peaks (2000, 2007), and basically served as a bear market harbinger.Aside from giving clues on the stage of the market cycle, this chart also served as a contrarian bullish indicator for bonds — with treasuries turning in strong double-digit returns after those two big troughs (and doing so while stocks dropped).So I think this chart says as much about the stage of the market cycle, as it does about the importance of asset allocation (bonds performing their role as diversifiers and risk dampeners), but also about the big bullish setup in bonds in general.As discussed the other day, bonds have all the makings for

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:This week we found out where the key support levels are.Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency.For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on S

When I first made this chart I had to check and re-check it a few times.Because it just looks too weird.And that’s the thing: as an analyst, sooner or later you learn (often by making an embarrassing mistake) that if something looks weird — it *is* weird and you probably need to go and find out what error you or someone else made to make it look that weird…The problem is there’s no error here.Well, no data error at least.That weird looking surge in the rolling 12-month net-change in US listed ETFs is genuine. But I am certain that some errors of a different type are going to be seen here when the dust eventually settles from this frantic ETF launch frenzy.And p.s. here’s a little something this chart doesn’t show: a big portion of ETF launches have been focused on providing “investors“ wit

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:This week we found out where the key support levels are.Seeing some short-term buy signals and “BTFD” activity.Long-term sentiment indicators are sounding cycle warning signs.Capex goes in cycles, the current cycle looks extended (esp. tech).It’s important to layout and quantify downside (and upside) risks.Overall, the initial wave of the latest risk-off episode looks to have completed with markets finding support (and clarifying the key trigger points from here). Short-term we probably get a rally, but the numerous and varied pressures building up in the system caution against complacency. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on

Bank StocksLastly, it’s also worth pointing out the strength we’ve seen in global bank stocks. Breadth across countries is running at a very strong pace, and after retesting its previous big breakout in April, the global bank stock index has now broken out to new all-time highs.It’s been a long time coming for banks to finally recover to pre-GFC levels, and as I’ve noted with a few other big breakouts we’ve been seeing this year — it follows a long period of ranging and consolidation (and repair/restructure) so it’s a highly significant development.Very interesting itself as far as the stocks go, but also interesting as another arguably quite positive macro sign and signal here.For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcom