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07-12 16:22

Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue?

As of July 9, the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Stock Price Index Futures (TOPIX) hit record highs of 41,769.35 points and 2,907.21 points respectively. The resumption of the Japanese stock market's rise is basically consistent with the cycle of the resumption of the yen's decline against the US dollar, which means that the depreciation of the yen not only reflects the weakness of the Japanese economy, but also reflects the favor of international capital against the Japanese stock market, and shows that the decline of domestic performance of Japanese companies caused by the slowdown of the Japanese economy is not enough to reverse the momentum of overseas profit growth of Japanese companies.It is rare in history that this round of Japanese stock market record high deviates from Japan's econom
Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue?

Will Bitcoin have pretty sharp rebound in the second half of this year,after holding key support?

Three Horses Driving-The trends of US stocks, gold and Bitcoin have shown obvious differentiation in the past period of time. The strong and strong U.S. stock index has seen a new impetus, and gold is also a bottom out, but Bitcoin has seen a further break. As the price slipped below 56,000, the worry of a bear market began to be gradually raised by the market again. So should we believe in Double Bottoms or Big Double Top?Starting from the fundamentals, the overall situation in the near future is actually relatively stable. Although the benefits of ETF and halving have been implemented, both of them are changes throughout the market, so they can be regarded as long-term support factors.In terms of monetary policy, the interest rate market suggests that the first interest rate cut this yea
Will Bitcoin have pretty sharp rebound in the second half of this year,after holding key support?

Market Volatility is coming,Two key opportunities!

This week's big news is as important as last week : including inflation expectations data on Monday, Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday, CPI data on Thursday, and PPI data on Friday. These data were actually of average importance before, but since the market now believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, if these data do not support the interest rate cut, it will hit market sentiment and produce large reverse fluctuations, so everyone should still be careful. Policy change periods are usually tossed and tossed.According to CME group's Fed interest rate probability observation tool, the current market believes that there is a 71% probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at the September interest rate mee
Market Volatility is coming,Two key opportunities!

Markets Update: "Magnificent 7" Leads Rally, Inflation Pressures Gold & Energy

Economic and Market Review $DJIA(.DJI)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2408(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2408(CLmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Equity IndicesYTD ReturnDow Jones4.17%S&P50015.98%NASDAQ21.93%MSCI – Europe8.78%MSCI–Emerging3.41%Bonds 2yr Treasury4.74%10yr Treasury4.43%10yr Municipal2.89%U.S. Corporate5.54%Commodities Gold$2,329.30/ozSilver$29.56/ozCrude Oil (WTI)$82.92/bblNatural Gas$2.45/MMBtuCurrencie
Markets Update: "Magnificent 7" Leads Rally, Inflation Pressures Gold & Energy

What's ahead for the Chinese yuan?

From the perspective of the RMB/USD exchange rate, the low point of the new trading range is around 7.1, while the high point of 7.36 is an important pressure level. The slow rise in the second quarter did provide some initial signals, but for pure technical trends, it is obvious that a new high exchange rate (new low RMB exchange rate) is needed to truly announce the arrival of the trend.Why can't we trade early now? The main reason may come from the progress of the news. From a macro logic point of view, the Federal Reserve will inevitably cut interest rates within this year. Even if the People's Bank of China has loose expectations, it will not be able to widen the interest rate spread. Secondly, the renminbi itself is not a completely freely convertible product, and it will have its ow
What's ahead for the Chinese yuan?

Super Risky Week Is Coming,The Stock Market Will Be Full Of Fluctuations

This week will usher in a super week of market volatility. First, the large and small non-farm data will be released, then the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Senate meeting, and then the US PMI data will be released. Reference, so it is bound to cause a big swing, everyone should pay attention to the orientation of the news.The impact of the US election on the US stock indexIn the second half of the year, the impact of election news on the stock market will increase. Since the first televised debate between Trump and Biden, the general election situation has undergone subtle changes. This change comes from the internal situation of the two parties in the United States. Compared with the 2020 general election, the Republican Party is actually not very united. Although T
Super Risky Week Is Coming,The Stock Market Will Be Full Of Fluctuations

Why Now Is A Badtime To Invest In Silver,The Potential Risks Is Big

Silver continued to pull back after starting a wave of strong gains in May. Although there have been some fluctuations in the past 3-4 weeks, the overall downward correction trend is very obvious. In particular, it should be noted that during this process, the pull-up-fast shipment mode and the upper shadow line on the weekly line all indicate that the current selling pressure is not over yet.Judging from the weekly silver line, only one week closed up in the past five weeks, and there was also a relatively obvious upper shadow line that week. In the other 4 weeks, half is a real negative line with a drop of 2-3%, and the other half is also a bearish mode. Although the corresponding gold is also a rebound and selling behavior, there is still a positive line supporting the scene on the week
Why Now Is A Badtime To Invest In Silver,The Potential Risks Is Big

U.S. PMI results unexpectedly improved, the next round of market will focus on the Dow Jones Index

The recent market is always very volatile, which tests traders' trading skills. Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate until August-September, waiting for the key signal of the Fed's interest rate path.1. Pay attention to the strength and weakness of the US stock indexAt present, the U.S. stock index is still the same as before in the election year, and the trend is still very stable. However, during the rise of the U.S. stock index, the stock price fluctuations of different listed companies rotated. The previous strength of technology stocks made the transaction too crowded. When other economic data pointed to economic recovery, then funds will withdraw from the crowded transaction and turn to Other indexes, and the PMI index released on Fri
U.S. PMI results unexpectedly improved, the next round of market will focus on the Dow Jones Index

Should You Buy The Oil Price Dip?

After a sharp drop from mid-April to May, international crude oil stopped falling and rebounded in June.Looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that the crude oil market will usher in several positives: the summer U.S. car travel season will drive gasoline consumption, the U.S. will repurchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September will increase due to cooling inflation, and China's economic recovery will bring import demand in the third quarter pick up. The risk factor is that OPEC's resumption of production exceeds expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in supply.Short-term supply contraction, medium-term or recovery expansionIn the second quarter of 2024, global crude oil production will continue to shrink. A
Should You Buy The Oil Price Dip?

Direxion ETFs: Weekly ETFs Play Book For Various Trading Themes

The content and data presented herein are from Bloomberg and Direxion and summarized by Tiger Brokers1. Trading topics for this weekU.S. retail sales data for May will be released on Tuesday - the market expects U.S. retail sales to record a 0.3% m-o-m increase in May, which is better than the unchanged rate in April. The data is regarded as an indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy and has considerable influence on Fed officials. It is expected to record moderate growth, making the outlook for the second half of the year brighter.Fed policymakers will make public speeches - including New York Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly , and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver remarks. The market hope
Direxion ETFs: Weekly ETFs Play Book For Various Trading Themes

European Stocks Fall On French Political Risks,Why Is It A Great Reason To Favor US Stocks

This year is an important election year in the world. Many countries have election activities this year, especially in the second half of the year. Such election-related news will continue to appear. However, because the current world economy as a whole is not as good as before, there will be many uncertainties in the election, and even extreme policy commitments made by different political factions in order to attract votes will bring some unexpected changes to the development of global politics and economy. The changes in French politics are only a microcosm of European politics, and other countries are not necessarily very stable. This makes European capital worry, and then further withdraw from the European market and return to the United States. From the perspective of capital flow, t
European Stocks Fall On French Political Risks,Why Is It A Great Reason To Favor US Stocks

What is the profit from US Treasury?

Market BackgroundThe U.S. CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, and the core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, both lower than the previous value and market expectations. This suggests that inflationary pressures have eased and market expectations of a Fed rate cut have strengthened. Nonetheless, the Fed chose to stay put at the June FOMC meeting, but the dot plot shows that Fed officials expect the number of rate cuts to be reduced from three to one this year. This hawkish signal to some extent dampened the market's expectations of rate cuts.Trend Analysis of U.S. Treasury Yields?The measurement of U.S. bond rates should not only take into account traditional interest rate expectations and term premiums, but also focus on the equilibrium relationship between the cost of financing and the return on
What is the profit from US Treasury?

BTC Markets: Correction Is Coming To An End.

This year, as the United States unexpectedly passed the review of ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the cryptocurrency market also ushered in a new round of quotations. However, driven by positive factors such as halving, BTC itself has not performed well in the past quarter. After setting a new record high, the price has basically remained in the range of 60,000 to 70,000 US dollars and fluctuated sharply.The good news is that the market cannot stay sideways forever, and such a breakthrough is expected soon.Mode 1: Ready to go, make a rapid breakthroughFor the Bitcoin, the relatively large consensus is still that the bull market is not over, so the difference may lie in the form in which the correction is ended. After the BTC price broke through the 60,000 mark, it has completed a completed z
BTC Markets: Correction Is Coming To An End.

Gold Tumbled On Solid Nonfarm Report,Great Opportunity For Buying The Dip?

After the release of thenon-farm data in the United States, it caused large fluctuations in the market. Let's talk about the data itself first. Before the release of the data, there was a usually inconspicuous data, which was the data on China's gold reserves. Since China has continued to increase its gold holdings in the past 18 months, the market before the release of the data It is not believed that the data has changed too much, but the result is that China did not increase its holdings of gold in May. After the release of the data, the price of gold plummeted. After the release of the unexpected non-farm data, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut fell again, making other commodities begin correction accordingly.The impact on precious metalsChina's gold reserves no
Gold Tumbled On Solid Nonfarm Report,Great Opportunity For Buying The Dip?

Will gold's rally reverse? Depends on three factors

From April to early May, after the price of gold hit a record high, it began to enter a shock adjustment.Three major factors lead to short-term adjustment of goldSince late May, gold has undergone significant adjustments. The adjustment pressure mainly comes from three aspects: First, the risk aversion sentiment has cooled recently, and the US dollar liquidity problem that the market was worried about has not yet appeared. However, the safe-haven demand for gold has not yet increased. Since late May, the price of gold has adjusted sharply, but the VIX index, which reflects market panic, has not risen sharply, and remained at a low level of 13.11 as of June 3. Looking back at history, the VIX index broke through 20 to correspond to panic in the market, and the price of gold will be boosted
Will gold's rally reverse? Depends on three factors

What Does the Fluctuating Value of the U.S. Dollar Mean for investors

The tepid foreign exchange market in the first half of the year continued the pattern of wide fluctuations since the end of 2022. Except for the yen, most varieties cannot really make breakthroughs. However, as the saying goes, a long time must be combined, and a long time must be divided, the foreign exchange market is gradually approaching the real outbreak as time goes on. Even if there may not be an explosion immediately, the opportunity to obtain a trending market in the next 6 months still deserves our due attention or advance planning now.As we all know, although the US Dollar Index is an associated product (the result recorded after the US dollar is weighted against other different foreign exchange varieties), it still has a very good reference value. As shown in the figure below,
What Does the Fluctuating Value of the U.S. Dollar Mean for investors

Economic and Market Review May 2024

$DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2408(MGCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2407(CLmain)$ Equity IndicesYTD ReturnDow Jones2.58%S&P50011.27%NASDAQ13.34%MSCI – Europe3.56%MSCI–Emerging2.83%Bonds 2yr Treasury4.87%10yr Treasury4.5%10yr Municipal3.11%U.S. C
Economic and Market Review May 2024

Oil Slumps as OPEC's Surprise Plan to Raise Output

The news on weekends is always relatively sudden. There are two main news this weekend. One is that the Houthis attacked the US aircraft carrier (twice), and the other is that the OPEC meeting was held, and the follow-up production reduction policy was determined.First of all, the US aircraft carrier was attacked, and the US side was very "restrained", saying that it had not found the attack, but the Houthis were very active in "claiming" that they had attacked the US aircraft carrier twice. This contrast has little impact on the market in the short term, but it may affect the prestige of the US military in the Middle East in the long run, and may further reduce its influence in the Middle East.For oil prices, it may be positive in the medium and long term. The results of the OPEC meeting
Oil Slumps as OPEC's Surprise Plan to Raise Output

Market Mania Fades: Cracks Emerge, Key Reversals Signals Validated, Now What?

Did Friday's Afternoon Rally Invalidate Weekly Bearish Setups? A Deep Dive with Monthly & Weekly ChartsFrom Compass at the Top Last Week, to Compass in the Storm TodayAs mentioned last week, underlying weaknesses existed, there were cracks below the surface actually since two weeks ago. The major US indexes finally faced rejection at crucial annual resistance levels, including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The current price action aligns perfectly with the analysis written in the previous Weekly Compass.Everything seemed bullish last week, so what changed?The $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ euphoria temporarily delayed the pullback. $DJIA(.DJI)$
Market Mania Fades: Cracks Emerge, Key Reversals Signals Validated, Now What?

Will US bond yields Hit A New High As Economy Fails To Cool

U.S. bond yields rebounded as market expectations for a Fed rate cut cooled again and indicators such as U.S. manufacturing improved in April. As of May 24, the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy, rose slightly to 4.93%. It had previously climbed to 4.98% on April 18, the highest record for the year, and it was 3.89% in the same period last year; The 10-year U.S. bond yield, which reflects the outlook for U.S. economic growth, rose slightly by 4.46%. It had previously hit a record high of 4.7% this year on April 25, compared with 3.38% in the same period last year.We believe that the short-term economic outlook of the United States is confusing. Although inflation expectations have cooled, the inflation stickiness brought about by the service industry has caused
Will US bond yields Hit A New High As Economy Fails To Cool