As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,

The US stock market is undergoing significant turmoil, with concerns over the economy intensifying. President Trump’s announcement of large-scale tariffs has triggered a wave of panic selling in global markets. Further complicating the market outlook, several economic indicators point toward the possibility of a recession. Experts believe that whether the market will experience another massive sell-off depends largely on whether fears of an imminent economic recession are debunked.Growing Recession Risk in the US EconomyEconomic Data Signals Trouble AheadRecent economic predictions paint a grim picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model has downgraded its outlook for first-quarter 2025 US real GDP growth from 2.3% to a contraction of 2.825%, marking the worst quarter for the US ec

On April 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the United States' imposition of tariffs, including a decisive move to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the U.S. This unprecedented response caught global markets off guard, highlighting China's preparedness since the 2018 trade war and revealing vulnerabilities in Western financial markets. As news spread, commodities faced significant sell-offs, and global markets began pricing in a potential economic recession. The U.S. stock indices’ sharp decline echoed patterns seen during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, signaling growing pessimism about the global economy.U.S. Stock Indices Enter Recession Mode, Resembling 2020 Pandemic TrendsThough skepticism toward U.S. stock performanc

Q1 Global Assets Recap1. Click to see the Chart 1: Q1 2025 Global Asset Highlights The first quarter of 2025 has already passed, and the performance of global major asset classes has shown a diversified trend.The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply in the first quarter, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 4.59%, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 1.28%, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ down 10.42%.Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks performed well, driven by China's artificial intelligence industry. The $HSI(HSI)$ and the $HSTE

On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an announcement at the White House declaring a 25% tariff on imported cars. The measure will take effect on April 2. Trump emphasized that the tariff would be permanent, adding that cars manufactured within the United States would be exempt from the tax.Trump's statement quickly triggered backlash from U.S. trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Japan. 1. Where is the Support Level for the Second Phase of the U.S. Stock Index Decline?Recent analyses suggest that the U.S. stock index rebound seen earlier was merely temporary and not indicative of a full recovery. In fact, the rebound was weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that February's peak will remain the high point for the year. Given the renewed downward t

Media Report: U.S. and Russia Expected to Release Joint Statement at 4 PM Beijing Time.According to CBS News, after the Saudi-hosted talks on a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea region, it is anticipated that the United States and Russia will issue a joint statement. .The announcement is scheduled for 4 AM Washington time, 11 AM Moscow time, and 4 PM Beijing time. While specific details of the statement remain unclear, reports from U.S. technical teams in Saudi Arabia shared with the Trump administration appear optimistic. Additionally, Ukrainian officials have been briefed on the developments.Historically, factors driving gold price fluctuations have revolved around two key attributes: its role as a hedge against inflation and its value as a safe-haven asset. Since President Trump took

This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month,

Last year, to avoid a U.S. government debt default, Congress approved a temporary funding bill extending federal government funding until March 14, 2025. With this deadline approaching next week, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a new temporary funding measure lasting until September 30. This bill is scheduled for a vote next Tuesday. Although the probability of outright rejection is relatively low, uncertainties remain. Political maneuvering by a minority of lawmakers and possible delays from the Democratic Party could complicate or prolong the bill's passage, thereby negatively impacting market sentiment.U.S. Stocks: Approaching Interim Lows—Short-Term Rebound PossibleAfter significant declines last week, major U.S. indices—led by the S&P 500—have dropped around 8%, nearing a