Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It?The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling."CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups:Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market.Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality.Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact.Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these funds aim

Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed.Market Reaction and Inflation OutlookPersistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference ov

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis.With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps

I. CFTC Positioning Data: Understanding the “Language of Smart Money”Many people focus only on prices, but what truly drives prices is where the money is positioned. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) translates this “language of money” into indicators that ordinary investors can understand. The “soul” of this report lies in two dimensions: who is holding positions, and whether they are long or short.CFTC positioning data classifies participants into three major categories: commercial positions (hedgers), non-commercial positions (speculators/funds), and non-reportable positions (retail traders). Among these, the most critical are non-commercial positions—funds, hedge funds, and large institutions whose objective is prof

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

Issued: April 13, 2026Period Covered: April 6, 2026 → April 13, 2026 1. Core Macro Dislocation: Historic Divergence Between Oil Collapse and Gold Surge Over the past week, global markets have exhibited a structural anomaly that cannot be reconciled under any traditional macro framework: $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ WTI Crude declined to 95.63 $黄金主连 2606(GCmain)$ Gold surged to 4727.45 $比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$ Bitcoin broke above 70875.66 Under conventional models, this configuration should not exist. Classical transmission: Oil ↓ → Inflation expectations ↓ → Real yields ↑ → Gold ↓ Observed reality: Oil ↓ + Gold ↑ + BTC ↑ This divergence signals a fundamental reg

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-