Reward 500 Tiger-coinsAs of May 29, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has risen 6.16% this month, marking its best monthly gain of the year.
Meanwhile, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ both surged 27% in May. Many are closely watching Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch in Austin this June, expecting it to boost the stock. Personally, I believe TSLA will move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.
$HSI(HSI)$ also saw a strong rally in May, climbing 5%. IPOs performed even better — for example, CATL jumped 16% on its debut, 01276 rose 15%, and 02629 surged 28%.
However, Behind the Rally — Is June's Macro Outlook Concerning?
The market continued to climb this week. Discussions around TACO have been heating up. People are no longer buying into Trump’s tariff threats — this might be a “boy who cried wolf” situation. The wolf may eventually show up, but it’s clear that most people no longer believe it.
That said, the current macro environment has indeed reached a pretty dire state. After the US lost its last AAA credit rating, Treasury yields soared, and $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$ have clearly lost their status as a “safe asset” this year.
There’s a well-known saying in the market: “Sell in May and go away.” Will you follow it? Interestingly, the market completely ignored that advice last year, continuing its rally from May through November.
However, June has not historically stood out in terms of market performance.
Quantum Fund co-founder Jim Rogers said
"I recently sold all my U.S. stocks because I’ve seen this kind of party before. Let me say it again: I’m very worried."
Rogers admitted that he is currently heavily invested in cash, gold, and silver. As speculation runs rampant across global markets, he offered a humorous piece of advice: "Go to the beach!" — meaning: take fewer risks and stay cautious.
What are your expectations for the market in June — another breakout defying seasonal trends, or a short-term cooldown?
After April’s sell-off and May’s surge, did you make any money?
Share your profitable trades! Will you continue to hold or take profits?
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Comments
The Hang Seng Index also rallied, and IPOs in Hong Kong were quite impressive. Still, I’m keeping an eye on the bigger picture. With rising Treasury yields and growing doubts about the U.S. as a safe haven, June could bring some headwinds despite recent gains.
I added to my Tesla position in April and saw good returns in May. I’m still holding but plan to take some profit if the rally continues. While June doesn’t have a strong seasonal record, I’m open to both scenarios — either a continued grind higher or a healthy pause.
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然而，在上漲的背後——6月份的宏觀前景令人擔憂嗎？
本週市場繼續攀升。圍繞討論玉米卷一直在升溫。人們不再相信特朗普的關稅威脅——這可能是一種“喊狼來了的男孩”的情況。狼最終可能會出現，但很明顯，大多數人不再相信它。
My main holdings are in HK stocks and this week has been a bad week. I have already taken profit on some like mixue and maogeping.
Moving forward, I think it is important to stick to the game plan. That is to only buy stocks of quality company, average down if I need to and if I still have cash[Facepalm], and take profit in a timely manner. The US and HK market has been volatile which makes it safer to take profit quickly. Don’t be greedy!