There was no accident in the Federal Reserve in March, and the rate hike of 25 basis points fully met market expectations.
Although some words in the statement were deleted and added, the feedback from the whole market seemed calm. After the short-term banking crisis faded, the main line of volatility returned to most assets. If the trend cannot continue and be maintained, choose high or low to leave the market may be the best choice.
Gold is a popular variety at present,In the past month, the increase has reached $2000. The notion of buying gold in troubled times is deeply rooted, and the dollar itself is troubled by the prospect of interest rates, so the demand for safe haven has completely poured into the gold market.However, just as the reasons why we didn't look short on gold in early March are similar, it may not be a good idea to chase up gold at a high level.
No matter whether gold is swallowed by bulls or airdrops at the monthly level, historically, the probability of consolidation/shock in the opposite direction in the following months is far greater than the continuation of the trend. In other words, after the sharp rise in March (the monthly line will be taken up soon this week), there is not much chance that gold will make further strides in the next 1-2 months. In addition, there is not much space from the historical high, and the cost performance of bulls is not ideal.
Of course, from the historical market point of view, there have also been cases where the trend continues. However, in this situation, there will be a lot of room to join bulls after breaking through the previous high (historical high).
In the long run, the bull market of gold is obviously not over, and the target price of 2200-2300 put forward many years ago still has a considerable chance to be fulfilled in the future.
Before the final effective breakthrough, it is more in line with the idea of large funds to make another wave of dish washing and pull up when most people are hesitant.Another point is that silver is still relatively far from the main pressure of $30. According to the condition that silver must not be weak in the bull market of precious metals, we can also pay attention to the performance of silver at this stage. If silver is a latecomer, gold can have greater confidence to see more.
If gold can't chase up aggressively, then the US dollar just can't be overly bearish. After the rate hike ended last week, the market generally believed that the US interest rate had basically come to an end, and even began to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. Even so, the dollar has bottomed out.
This shows that the US Dollar Index still has good resilience at present.Different from gold, the monthly line of the US dollar needs to be maintained without swallowing up this month, because historically, if the monthly chart of the US dollar reverses and swallows up, there is a high probability of continuing the trend. 100.82 can be held for the rest of the week (ideally, it should return to above 103.5), and the chances of a small double bottom or ABC shape of the US dollar will rise in the short and medium term. Before the new major news is pushed, we are more optimistic about the long-short seesaw in the US dollar range.
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