With the efforts of many parties, there seems to be no new message about the banking crisis this weekend, so it will get some respite.
But the current crisis is only the beginning, perhaps the tip of the iceberg, because governments and central banks have no unified rescue methods. Is the depositor's deposit 100% guaranteed? Will another bankrupt bank be saved or not? Can industry mergers and acquisitions really fill in or cover up risks? There are no clear answers to these questions in the current market, so this banking crisis will have to let the bullets fly for a while.
Historically, the best investment time in financial markets is often when the crisis is completely exposed or there is a clear rescue plan for the crisis.
For example, when the financial crisis in 2008, Lehman went bankrupt and the Federal Reserve printed money, the epidemic came in 20 years, and the Federal Reserve printed money indefinitely, looking back, these times were excellent investment moments, and almost everything in the stock market made money. And the current crisis broke out, but was it completely exposed?
It seems not yet; Is the rescue plan clear again? Not to mention this. Then in this context, we still don't be too optimistic about the market.
Can the US stock index hold up?
The weight of banking stocks in the US stock index is not high. At present, the crisis has not spread to other industries, and the market is already full of longing for the Federal Reserve to print money to save the market.
In fact, the US stock index has little problem in the short term. S&P 3700-4200 is still the upper and lower tracks of the shock range, so we can rely on this range for evaluation. Because the market is expected to save the market when it falls, and the crisis is not completely lifted when it rises, the probability of stock index shock is relatively high when there is no clear plan for the crisis.
Crude oil bottoming out again?
Over the weekend, Russia announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which may support short-term oil prices.Let's see how strong the support is next week. If it is not strong (such as standing firm at 72), the oil price will continue to weaken and fall again under the expectation of recession.
Everyone should remember one thing,The strategic oil reserves of the United States are expected to be replenished below $70, which means that if the oil price does not deviate significantly from $70, then the biggest need for crude oil will definitely not be purchased.
If the world economy is booming, it is really bad for US crude oil reserves. However, at present, the market is bleak for the future economic prospects, and the more oil prices fall, the better. Therefore, everyone should take advantage of the trend and wait for the biggest buyers who just need it before considering doing more things.
Therefore, in the long-term strategy, as long as the oil price does not break through the 20-week moving average, we should not take long positions for a long time. After the rebound, it may be an opportunity to rearrange short positions.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2306(NQmain)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2306(ESmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2306(YMmain)$ $Gold - main 2304(GCmain)$ $Light Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$
Comments