Last week's non-agricultural data is still very "strong", which disappoints the bulls in the market. After all, ending the rate hike cycle and entering the easing cycle of interest rate cuts is what market buyers expect most. As a result, non-agricultural does not cooperate, so they can only expect the next non-agricultural data, because the data will always "deteriorate" one day.
The release of CPI data this week is undoubtedly a test of rate hike's expectations. Last week's non-agricultural data raised the Fed's rate hike forecast in May to 70%. If CPI falls beyond expectations, will rate hike's expectations be instantly lowered?
This poor expectation of the Fed's rate hike has dominated the market of most stock indexes and commodities in the last quarter, and it is no exception at present. Therefore, this kind of market is more reliable by following up technical indicators, at least it will not be ambiguous.
First, pay attention to the short-term correction of US stocks
Recently, under the expectation of printing money by the Federal Reserve, the Nasdaq is relatively strong, which drives the US stock index to continue to rise. The S&P has reached an important pressure position near 4200. Whether it can break through effectively depends on whether the CPI data is powerful.
$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2306(NQmain)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2306(ESmain)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2306(YMmain)$
From the point of view, in fact, even if the US stock market effectively breaks through the pressure line, the follow-up will only return to the slow bull state of slow rise and sharp fall. It takes time for economic recovery and the expectation of economic recession to be verified. It is difficult for the index to have an overall market, so if it rises much, we must beware of the short-term correction of US stocks caused by unexpected news.
Technically, S&P has reached the previous pressure position and cannot break through effectively. It is estimated that the correction range is about 100 points. Therefore, short-term short-term friends may consider capturing at the current position, putting the stop loss near 4180/4200, and expecting to test the 20-day moving average.
Second, where will the oil price go?
Last week, the oil price did not rise continuously, which shows that the market did not panic about this production reduction. Although the price jumped to a high level, no one rushed to buy crude oil, so it was difficult for the price to rise continuously.
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$
The reason for not rising continuously lies in the fear of market and economic recession. Since traders are worried about recession, if they rush to buy crude oil now, they are likely to fall into their hands. It is better to buy it now and follow the market.
Since there is no snapping up phenomenon, it is difficult to judge the subsequent rising process of oil prices, and it may be possible to fill the gap of oil prices because of other events.
Because there are few gaps in the fluctuation of oil prices in history, even if there are follow-up, they will be filled. Of course, the filling time can be long or short. For example, the gap in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict last year was completely filled almost half a year later. Therefore, oil price bulls should be careful at this stage, try their best to set specific stop-loss prices, close positions at some point, and wait for the next opportunity to intervene.
Comments