You should be more careful, GOLD price keeps trading at high levels and that is not a good sign

In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided to continue the moderate rate hike as expected by the market. At the same time, it released the signal that this may be the last rate hike in this round.

The rate hike range of 25 basis points was fully in line with the market's previous expectations. After the press conference, Powell said that in principle, there is no need for rate hike to reach too high a level, but it is "inappropriate" to cut interest rates now, and the US economy is not expected to decline. After the news, the risky assets did not rise when their boots landed. On the contrary, gold unexpectedly jumped in the day, only one step away from the historical high point.

Gold is the highest in 2085 after jumping, and the previous historical high of 2089 is just around the corner. It was thought that gold needed a deep correction to move higher. Whether this judgment is correct or not will depend on today's closing situation.

Quickly covering the gap means a buy trap, while keeping the positive line entity obvious is very likely to try to break through the historical high point. Even so, we are still skeptical about the high-risk chase, and we are wary of the possibility of the last rush.

In addition to the price patterns mentioned before, the fundamental situation seen after this FOMC also lacks new direction to support gold to rise sharply. The only factor that can be regarded as "positive" is probably the so-called American banking problem. The early rise of gold at the beginning of this week is more or less related to the above news.

Compared with gold, silver is still lagging behind. Although there has also been a jump, it has not yet refreshed the high point at the end of April. Silver's inability to catch up with gold is also a signal of "not bullish" precious metals. Silver needs to break through the high point of 30 in the market outlook in order to open up the space for sharp rise.

Compared with gold and silver, the performance of other commodities is somewhat bleak, especially crude oil and copper, which were talked about before the holiday. Both have fallen in recent times, especially when oil prices have refreshed their previous lows. The pressure on commodities representing risk sentiment suggests that besides monetary policy, there may be other factors in the undercurrent of large funds. At the same time, the S&P index also encountered challenges above 4200, but the current decline is still relatively limited. On the US stock index, the strategy of selling high and sucking low in the core area is still effective.

In the long run, after the interest rate topic no longer occupies the main line, the market focus will turn to the mutual falsification between inevitable recession and recovery. There has been an obvious contrast between gold as a risk-averse representative and crude oil as a risk-chasing representative, which also implies the overall tone of the second half of the year. Although there is caution about gold in the short and medium term, the prospects for risky assets are even more depressed, and it may not be long before the time of holding more bullets comes again.

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