I expect only 1-2 rate cuts this year.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year. The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Will this end up as one of the best election years for stocks ever?

hope can reduce 3 times. If reduce the interest rate, should contribute to the share marketing also.

I doubt there's any rate cuts till after US election on 5 Nov unless the next FOMC meetings shows CPI is improving below 3.5% and Core inflation below 3.8%! May 1, June 12, July 31 and Sept 18 may be flat. Best scenario not to raise or cut to buy time for a bigger phenomenon to happen later. 6 Nov has all the reason to cut rate and depending on how much too to see what's to come after 🙏

Think the Fed will likely postpone any rate cuts to next year. Loosening any earlier risks negating all their effort over the past 2 years to contain inflation. Economic seems to be in decent condition and unemployment rate remains low. Little reason to cut early.

The Fed's efforts to lower inflation seem to have encountered not a small pit, but a real roadblock, and the market has to reflect on this year's interest rate cut forecasts. Recent report shows that the core inflation rate exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. The core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. The increase was the same as the previous month. Futures market prices show investors believe fewer than two rate cuts are likely this year. Although the dot plot shows a slim majority of Fed officials predicting three interest rate cuts this year, stagnant progress in reducing inflation may not only delay the timing of interest rate cuts, but may even limit the ability to cut interest rates. Even if the inflation rate can drop to a mor

so i expect rates in 2024 to stay stable or adjust only slightly, the possibility of two or three rate cuts is unlikelyalthough cpi data shows 3.5% , which might hint at inflation pressurethe fed's determination to maintain price stability can't be ignored, considering the current complexity of the economy and global market uncertainty, the fed is more likely to remain cautious and won't easily cut rates furthermorethe fed may focus more on long-term economic health rather than short-term market fluctuations $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$

【Voting Post】The potential interest rate cut by the Fed in 2024, coupled with a hotter than expected CPI of 3.5%, presents a complex investment landscape.  While Goldman Sachs forecasts only two rate cuts in July and November, the discrepancy between actual and projected inflation may trigger market volatility.  I anticipate a short-term pullback in the S&P following the release of the hot inflation data. However, I remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook.  My target is to capitalize on market volatility by selectively investing in sectors resilient to rising inflation, such as consumer staples, utilities, and real estate investment trusts (REITs).  Additionally, I plan to hedge against potential downside risks through diversification and defensive positioning i

While CPI inflation is at 3.5%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2% 2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7% 3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2% 4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9% 6. Rent Inflation: 5.7% 7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0% 8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2% Both Core CPI and headline CPI came in hotter than expectations. This is FOURTH straight month with both readings being hotter than expected. We now have all major inflation metrics back on the rise and oil prices are nearly $90. Affordability is still getting worse. With inflation on the rise, rate cuts are becoming even less likely. It's incredible to think that just 4 months ago, markets priced in a chance of 8 rate cuts this year. The Fed's victory

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

Title: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Rising Inflation: Puppy's Naughty april Headline 🤔 How do you expect rate cuts in 2024 to unfold amidst the current economic climate? if support breaks down downtrend 50 days moving average $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$    As a finance student, Puppy's Naughty March headline presents a conundrum for monetary policy analysts. With Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 3.5%, surpassing estimates and reaching its highest point since September 2023, coupled with a Core CPI of 3.8% exceeding expectations, the market sentiment is understandably wary. The premarket trading witnessed a dive in broader market indices, while the swap market indicates a dwindling probabilit

Me thinks US dollar become strong becos of this news, is really don't understand.. now rate continue up, means us gov need to pay more interests on borrowing.. but they got no money!!! How??? they print more money to pay money!! How can this be sustain? this no good for US dollar to me!

US president Biden already said that the start time to reduce interest rate will be postponed, but confirmed that at least one time action before end of this year. 

Fed will not cut the rates in June

I think there will still be rate cuts this year. CPI aside, there must be pressure from POTUS to ensure the market doesn't crash, which denying rate cuts would surely do. Powell has "promised" to stay above politics but I'm not sure who is buying the snake oil. 

Oh, so no rate cut [What]  [What]  [What]  [Drowsy]  [Drowsy]  [Drowsy]  [OMG]  [OMG]  [OMG]  [Gosh]  [Gosh]  [Gosh]  goodness.... Have to stick to bonds, t-bills, etc, then I suppose... What y'all think [Thinking]  [Thinking]  [Thinking]   @koolgal  @GoodLife99  @Universe宇宙  @HelenJanet  @Shyon  

⛔️⛔️Fed's cut is off the table for June ⛔️⛔️    The experts wade in. Source Reuters ~ CAMERON DAWSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NEWEDGE WEALTH, NEW YORK "There is a high-risk cutting rates in June gets pushed out further. The probability is likely going to move lower after today's print, meaning that a June cut is less likely. It's important because June is the kind of last window for them to cut before the election. However, this data doesn't necessarily support them.” BEN VASKE, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ORION, OMAHA, NEBRASKA “While cuts are certainly still on the table for 2024, today’s data could be a key data point in pushing out pivot timing even further.” OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, NEW YORK “The report confirms the Fed’s concerns that

Commodities price up, crude oil price up. surely lead to more inflation in the coming months. Expect no rate cutes this year. Possibly rate hike if Middle East / Russia situation worsens leading to sharp increase in energy prices.

Let's pray cpi don't worsen in coming months