$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  🎯🗓️🔥 August’s Market Fates: Bulls, Bears & Key Dates!🔥🗓️🎯 Kia ora Tiger traders! 🔥August is shaping up to be a fiery month for market movers and shakers! Let’s break down the key dates to watch, what they mean for the market, how they might indicate a bull 🐂 or bear 🐻 trend, how often these reports are released 🌈! Buckle up, this ride could be wilder than a Tui on a sugar rush! 🕺💥 🗓 Tuesday, August 13:  Producer Price Index (PPI) – Released Monthly 📊 The PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level and is released monthly. If PPI comes in hotter than a barista’s double-shot espresso ☕, it could signal rising inflation, leading to a bear market 🐻 as the Fed might start eyeing those rate hikes like they’re on a m

⛔️⛔️Fed's cut is off the table for June ⛔️⛔️    The experts wade in. Source Reuters ~ CAMERON DAWSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NEWEDGE WEALTH, NEW YORK "There is a high-risk cutting rates in June gets pushed out further. The probability is likely going to move lower after today's print, meaning that a June cut is less likely. It's important because June is the kind of last window for them to cut before the election. However, this data doesn't necessarily support them.” BEN VASKE, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ORION, OMAHA, NEBRASKA “While cuts are certainly still on the table for 2024, today’s data could be a key data point in pushing out pivot timing even further.” OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, NEW YORK “The report confirms the Fed’s concerns that

Now it's early April, and the eagerly anticipated interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, has yet to materialize. There have even been recent remarks from Fed officials suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates. In light of this, let's delve into some in-depth interpretation and analysis.One can reflect on the various optimistic statements in the financial markets since October last year. At that time, analysts from Goldman Sachs predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin an interest rate cut cycle in January of this year. While the consensus on Wall Street wasn't as extreme, there was also a belief that the Fed would initiate an interest rate cut cycle in March of this year.So why hasn't the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted to cut interest rates yet?1. Recentl

After the release of the March CPI, the CME's FedWatch Tool shows that it may be very difficult to cut interest rates twice this year. The current pricing is for a rate cut in September (with a probability of 46%), and a second rate cut in December (with a probability of 33.7% vs. 33.6%).Why does this CPI exceed expectations and have a significant impact on the market?It may once again expose the shortcoming of the Fed's "delayed" judgmentCoincidentally, on April 10th, the day the CPI data was announced, the minutes of the March meeting were also released, indicating that the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Although the Fed has slowed down its balance sheet reduction this year, it does not intend to reduce the pace of reduction.The purchasing power support brough

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

4.Outlook for the Next Steps"Currently, the US economy faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short term, inflation in energy, food, real estate, and the service industry continues to rise. The Federal Reserve certainly cannot cut interest rates now, and the earliest possibility would be in June. This year is also an election year in the United States. According to convention, with the election scheduled for early November, the Fed can only stay put in September and October, regardless of whether it's cutting or maintaining interest rates. Any changes in monetary policy during the two months before the election will be labeled as "politicizing monetary policy." As an independent institution authorized by the US Congress, the Fed will never be dragged into political turmoil.

Once again on Tue, 12 Mar 2024, investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will reference, in its next interest rate decision: US February 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street forecast. According to Bloomberg, the monthly inflation report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is forecasted to show headline inflation of 3.1%, matching January's annual gain in prices. (see below) This will be the latest inflation report, before the Fed's next FOMC policy decision on next Wed, 20 Mar 2024. Investors are hopeful the central bank will cut interest rates sometime later this year. February 2024 Estimates. Over the prior month, core CPI is expected to rise +0.4%, a slight increase from January's +0.3% monthly increase. (see above) According to Bloombe

Title: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Rising Inflation: Puppy's Naughty april Headline 🤔 How do you expect rate cuts in 2024 to unfold amidst the current economic climate? if support breaks down downtrend 50 days moving average $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$    As a finance student, Puppy's Naughty March headline presents a conundrum for monetary policy analysts. With Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 3.5%, surpassing estimates and reaching its highest point since September 2023, coupled with a Core CPI of 3.8% exceeding expectations, the market sentiment is understandably wary. The premarket trading witnessed a dive in broader market indices, while the swap market indicates a dwindling probability

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Three major indexes closed the choppy week lowerThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly hit intraday record highs but started to lose steam late morning. Nvidia shed $128 billion in market cap on Friday, erasing gains it had notched earlier in the session. The AI darling finished down more than 5% in its worst session since late May.All three major indexes finished the choppy week lower. The Dow posted its worst weekly performance since October, as Apple was down nearly 5% over the week, making it the worst performer in the 30-stock Dow.Fed chief Jerome Powell had few surprises in his congressional testimony, continuing to make the case that there's no reason to rush rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February, above forecasts, but sharp downside rev

*TA as of 3/4/24 Hi everyone! Today I’ll be covering a stock close to home: Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) SE was a pandemic darling with bags of promise as the stock received upgrade after upgrade. However, as the world returned to normalcy, it fell out of favour with investors. The breaking point was the time it broke its long-term trendline in May’22, as it continued to trend lower, to as low as 35 a share. From the weekly chart, it is apparent that it was trading in a falling wedge reversal pattern with lower highs and lower lows, albeit with a tightening range. It hit an inflexion point when it formed a bullish divergence pattern on the weekly, which has cumulated in a breakout from the rising wedge. On the daily chart, we can see that bearish divergence marked a short-term top, as the stock

Oh no! Bad news. The consumer price index, a key inflation gage, rose 3.5% in March, higher than expectations and marking an acceleration for inflation. I believe the rate cut won't be so fast in 2024, probably towards the end of the year.  Shelter and energy costs drove the increase on the all-items index. Energy rose 1.1% after increasing 2.3% in February, while shelter costs were higher by 0.4% on the month and up 5.7% from a year ago. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected rate cut out to September. A measure of underlying US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month, heralding a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year. The so-called core consumer price index, which excludes fo

The Fed's efforts to lower inflation seem to have encountered not a small pit, but a real roadblock, and the market has to reflect on this year's interest rate cut forecasts. Recent report shows that the core inflation rate exceeded economists' expectations for the third consecutive month. The core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. The increase was the same as the previous month. Futures market prices show investors believe fewer than two rate cuts are likely this year. Although the dot plot shows a slim majority of Fed officials predicting three interest rate cuts this year, stagnant progress in reducing inflation may not only delay the timing of interest rate cuts, but may even limit the ability to cut interest rates. Even if the inflation rate can drop to a mor

There are two main factors contributing to high inflation right now: supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. Supply chain issues caused by the pandemic continue to cause problems, making it difficult and expensive to get goods to consumers. The war in Ukraine has also driven up energy and food prices, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of these commodities. oil above 80 is also causing market jitters. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  is hovering, sometimes dipping due to profit taking. many are fomo, just in case the fed decides to cut rates though inflation remains high. $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is trying to make new highs as some fed officials sig

Global risk asset preferences rose in February, with markets such as BTC $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ continuing to rise, ignoring expected interest rate cuts and rising US treasury yields. The release of liquidity in the first quarter drove the performance of risk assets, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the performance of US tech stocks exceeding expectations. These factors were all supported by the ample liquidity in the US financial market. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ However, financial liquidity may shrink in the second quarter, which could lead to a redistribution of funds between stocks and bonds. The impact of the US liquidity tran