Market Outlook of S&P500 - 03Jun24 Observations: The MACD indicator has completed a top crossover and we should expect the down trend to continue. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has crossed the zero line in the middle which implies an uptrend. There is more buying volume than selling. For the index to drop, the selling volume needs to be more than the buying volume. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and the mid-term. With the current trend, the candle should cut the MA 50 line soon. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are on an uptrend. The lines are converging and should do so in the coming days. I have replaced S

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 13May24 1D chart for S&P500 dated 11 May 2024 (SGT) Observations: The MACD indicator is on an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has crossed the zero line in the middle which implies an uptrend. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and bearish for the mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines have converged and started an uptrend. I have replaced Stochastic with CMF to incorporate consideration of volume. Stochastic and MACD are similar with Stochastic being “more active” and more capable for “false” signals. Using a daily interval chart, Investing is recommending a “Strong Buy

Six Too-Big-To-Fail US banks have all released Q1 2024 financial reports.With the macro still tight, but economic activity strong, all of them beat without surprise, business department in divergence.Interest margin keeps narrowing but improved, the interest income has noticeably dropped, but the overall market expectation is not high. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo's partial interest income did not meet expectations, and the market had already priced this in.CPI strong, short-term interest rate cut expectations fell, and it is still difficult to see growth in the interest margin.Investment banking business as a whole is recovering, among which the growth of fixed-income underwriting business is the most noticeable. Wealth management business is growing steadily overall, and active market tradin

Iran and Israel conflict It started with the “arrest” of MSC Aries at the Straits of Hormuz. BREAKING: IRAN BANS ALL SHIPS LINKED TO ISRAEL “Starting today, all vessels linked to the Zionist regime are banned from operating in the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf.Any such vessels found in these waters will be confiscated.” This thread means that all Israeli-linked vessels would not be able to travel past the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf. This would be taken seriously by the shipping industry, causing further disruptions to the regional supply chain. Vessels will be forced to divert, leading to an increase in supply chain lead time and cost. Missiles and Drones were launched The screenshot was taken from the NBC news report. Iran launched its retaliation after Israel bombed its embassy in

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 06May24 The MACD indicator is on a downtrend and there is a setup for a potential reversal in the common days. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has hit below the zero line. This can be seen as a bearish signal with more selling volume. Note that there may be a reversal in this coming up as the line moves toward the “0” line. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above the MA 200 line and below the MA 50 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and bearish for the mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines have converged and started a downtrend. The 3 EMA lines are turning sideways and there could be ranging or reversal. For the reversal to be confirmed, the 3 EMA lines ne

2."Is US Inflation Making a Comeback?"Certainly, the biggest variable regarding interest rate cuts is inflation. This year's inflation data has put the Federal Reserve in a somewhat awkward position. Firstly, energy prices have been steadily rising. Crude oil prices have reached $86, noticeably impacting Americans at the gas station.Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $2300 mark and hitting historic highs, signaling market expectations of further inflation. While the Fed may attribute the rise in oil prices to Middle East tensions, financial markets find this hard to accept. Looking at the real estate market, the overall US housing market price index has risen by about 4% this year, and rents have increased. Consequently, the equivalent rent weight within the CPI is bound to con

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ decreased 3.1% last week, $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ plummeted 5.5%, causing market attention. TMaybe it’s not a bad thing to fall at this position. It can not only digest its overly strong expectations, but also help to restart the interest rate cut trade.Liquidity IssuesThe turning point of financial liquidity in the second quarter will put pressure on U.S. stocks.The difference between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet rule - TGA account - reverse repos is used to measure liquidity within the financial system, which is approximately equal to the scale of reserves in the commercial banking system. Recent changes are that the Fed's monthly balance sheet reduction is still ongoing, but the tax

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 22Apr24 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The MACD indicator is on a downtrend from the past week and this should continue into the coming week. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has hit below the zero line. This can be seen as a bearish signal with more selling volume. Note that there may be a reversal in this coming up as the volume trend seems to be changing direction. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above the MA 200 line and below the MA 50 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and bearish for the mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines have converged and started a downtrend. I have replaced Stochastic with CMF to incorporate consideration

Yesterday saw a continuation of the reevaluation of interest-rate expectations for 2024, driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials and market reactions to economic data. Here's a breakdown of the key events and market movements: DJIA: +0.17% to 37,798.97 ; $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -0.21% to 5,051.41 ; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -0.12% to 15,865.25 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Stocks Interest Rate Expectations Fed Remarks: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for greater confidence in sustained inflation decli

I agree with my American friend. He mentioned that there is a forming of a double top. Would we see some corrections in the coming days? Will the run continue with minor bumps?  $S&P 500(.SPX)$

The "Fear and Greed" index has once again fallen back into the "Fear" rangeOrdinary investors may easily overlook the options of $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , reflecting the volatility of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . It is a cost-effective "hedge" underlying.Remember the following points:- Index option trades are all cash settled, so there is no "stock acceptance" situation in Sell PUT trades.- VIX is the market's expectation of **future** volatility within 30 days, not a measure of current or past volatility.- VIX options have a "Rule Of 16", precisely 15.87, which is the square root of 252 (the number of trading days in a year). If VIX is at 16, SPX is expected to fluctuate 1% daily; if VIX is 24, daily fluctu

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 29Apr24 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The MACD indicator is on a downtrend and there is a setup for a potential reversal in the common days. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has hit below the zero line. This can be seen as a bearish signal with more selling volume. Note that there may be a reversal in this coming up as the line moves toward the “0” line. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above the MA 200 line and below the MA 50 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long term and bearish for the mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines have converged and started a downtrend. I have replaced Stochastic with CMF to incorporate consideration of volume. St