Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti

The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the @mushrooz who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending

English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$  [微笑]  QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull? Monday’s pullback in $QQQ is easy to explain: yields are rising, oil is adding to inflation pressure, and investors are taking profits in high-beta tech. But I think the more interesting question is not whether higher yields hurt technology — they obviously do. The real question is whether AI-driven earnings growth is strong enough to absorb the higher cost of capital. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% on Monday. The move came as oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty revived inflation concerns and pushed expectations for further Fed tightening

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  - The Interesting Part of This Selloff Isn’t the 1% Drop QQQ fell more than 1% on Monday, and the immediate explanation was familiar: Treasury yields are high, growth stocks are expensive, and investors are taking some money off the table. But I think there’s another way to look at it. Instead of asking whether higher yields will “break” the tech bull market, I’m more interested in where the money is going when investors reduce exposure to technology. A 1% decline in QQQ doesn’t necessarily mean investors have suddenly changed their view on technology. It could simply mean the market is becoming more selective. That distinction matters. For a long time, investors could buy growth almost indiscriminately. Strong earnings, AI

Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio

I am leaning toward B: 100K–200K jobs. The labor market still looks resilient, but I think hiring is gradually cooling rather than accelerating. With August payrolls at 162K and unemployment at 4.1%, a moderate slowdown in September would not surprise me. For markets, I think Treasury yields could move first if payrolls come in clearly above expectations. A strong jobs number could push investors to price in a higher chance of another Fed hike, lifting yields and supporting the dollar. That could create some pressure on growth stocks and gold, even though stronger employment is positive for the economy. For my own positioning, I would rather avoid chasing the initial move. I will watch the combination of payrolls, wage growth, unemployment and revisions before making any major decision. F

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  Down 1%+ — The Bond Market Is Becoming the Bigger Story QQQ dropped 1.07% Monday, but the number I’m watching isn’t the Nasdaq decline. It’s the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield pushed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007, while tech and semiconductor stocks came under pressure.  That creates an interesting setup. For months, strong AI spending and earnings growth have helped investors look past higher rates. But when yields keep climbing, the valuation math becomes harder for high-growth stocks. What also caught my attention is that the selling wasn’t uniform. Nvidia gained while several semiconductor names fell sharply, suggesting investors may still be willing to pay for perceived AI leaders even as t

B — 100K–200K. I expect September payroll growth to land around 120K–150K. August’s 162K gain showed the labor market still has some resilience, but the broader trend is clearly cooling, while private hiring has been relatively subdued. The interesting part is that “good jobs data” may not mean good news for stocks. A strong print could push October hike expectations higher, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring high-duration tech valuations. But a moderate slowdown could be the sweet spot: enough cooling to reduce rate pressure without triggering recession fears. With oil prices already adding inflation risk, I’m watching wages and unemployment more than the headline payroll number. If payrolls come in around 130K with wage growth cooling, markets may interpret it as a soft landing sign

Interesting and should look into it 

The September jobs report will be important because it could influence the Fed’s October rate decision. The three scenarios are: Below 100K: Shows faster labor-market cooling. This could reduce pressure for another rate hike, but may raise concerns about economic growth. 100K–200K: Shows moderate job growth and could give the Fed more flexibility to wait. 200K–300K: Shows stronger employment. It could increase expectations of another rate hike, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Investors should also watch wage growth, unemployment, and revisions to previous months, not just the headline payroll number. For stocks and gold, the reaction may depend on whether the data is strong or weak relative to expectations.

Guess A. What will the market be if A happen?

B — 100K–200K. August was much stronger than expected at 162K, but I think September could cool without turning into a major labor-market break. The interesting part will be whether the number comes in closer to 100K or surprises on the upside again.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  QQQ held firm while yields broke 5% — what that actually tells us? Friday the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.46% even as the 10-year yield pushed above 5%. That is not normal behaviour. In past cycles, yields at these levels usually pressure growth stocks hard. This time the AI heavyweights inside QQQ simply refused to break. Earnings power is still carrying the index. Monday pre-market looks softer. Dow futures are down and oil is reacting to fresh geopolitical comments. That is the market doing its usual risk check. The real question is simple: Is this resilience because the biggest companies can still grow earnings in a higher-rate world?
Or is it just the calm before rates finally force a bigger re-pricing? I lean toward the first