LivyInvestment
LivyInvestment
Boutique investment research shop providing professional coverage on disruptive thematic equities. Our analysis provides a deep dive on growth drivers present in the secular market to identify outperforming investments.
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2024-11-23

Don't Miss This Emerging Risk From XPeng's Q3 2024 Earnings

XPeng Inc.'s eye-watering rally since August was dampened after the company reported a tempered sales outlook for Q4 this week. Despite optimism for accelerating volume growth, the comparatively softer strength in XPeng's revenue prospects highlights imminent ASP pressures. Looking ahead, the introduction of four new models next year, alongside the implementation of an EREV strategy, is likely to reduce visibility on its longer-term fundamental trajectory. The related execution risks remain underappreciated at current levels, and will likely diminish the durability of XPEV's valuation premium over its comparable Chinese EV peers in the near-term. hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) has been one of the best-per
Don't Miss This Emerging Risk From XPeng's Q3 2024 Earnings
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2024-05-28

These 3 Things Should Push Nvidia Even Higher

Summary Nvidia Corporation's stock price has tripled since the advent of generative AI solutions across day-to-day settings. And the company's latest earnings results reinforce a strong demand outlook underpinned by its mission-critical role in enabling the continued build-out of accelerated computing supporting AI developments. Paired with Nvidia's upcoming stock split, we expect further momentum to its valuation upsurge from current levels. BING-JHEN HONG Nvidia Corporation’s (NDVA) stock price has more than tripled since reporting an outsized growth trajectory last year unlocked by relentless AI momentum. The company’s technology continues to serve as the industry’s “gold standard” in facilitating AI developments. This is evident in Nvi
These 3 Things Should Push Nvidia Even Higher
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2024-07-24

Here's Why Google Fell Despite The Q2 2024 Earnings Outperformance

Summary Google continues to be well-positioned in the AI play, with robust Q2 results in its core Search advertising business and persistent momentum in Cloud monetization. The latest earnings outperformance continues to assuage previous concerns about AI-driven cannibalization of Google's search dominance, and reinforces its reputation in actively monetizing the nascent technology. However, the stock's post-earnings response continues to highlight the increasing disparity between Google's fundamental outlook and its valuation premium at current levels. 400tmax Google (NASDAQ:GOOG/NASDAQ:GOOGL) has been one of the biggest gainers this year, alongside digital advertising peer Meta Platform
Here's Why Google Fell Despite The Q2 2024 Earnings Outperformance
avatarLivyInvestment
2024-05-30

Salesforce: After Its 20% Post-Q1 Decline Is Not A Bargain (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Salesforce, Inc.'s expectations for an extended measured buying environment through FY 2025 is increasing investor angst over a potentially structural single-digit growth outlook. While strong Data Cloud uptake rates continue to demonstrate momentum and reinforce Salesforce's AI strategy, contributions remain insufficient in reversing the near-term pace of deceleration. The results accordingly increase execution risks ahead for Salesforce, with investors now pivoting focus from margin expansion to the underlying business' ability to preserve a sustained double-digit growth trajectory. wdstock Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) stock has yet to regain its recently lost ground following speculation over the potential Informatica (
Salesforce: After Its 20% Post-Q1 Decline Is Not A Bargain (Rating Downgrade)
avatarLivyInvestment
2024-11-29

Palantir Vs. Super Micro Computer: A Tale Of Two Camps

Growth versus value has long been a key debate in the investing community. And the latest developments at Palantir and SMCI have made them a fitting pair for such comparison. Although both stocks were once viewed jointly as key AI beneficiaries, they've since diverged in their paths. On one hand, Palantir's soaring to all-time highs with an eyewatering valuation of almost 50x NTM sales, backed by AI-driven acceleration to its growth trajectory. Meanwhile, on the other hand, whether SMCI's fall from grace can be reverted remains a substantial uncertainty, given ongoing accounting woes and their implications. The following analysis will discuss the context of both stock's performance this year, and provide a deep dive into their growth and value implications ahead. hapabapa There’s long been
Palantir Vs. Super Micro Computer: A Tale Of Two Camps
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2024-06-21

Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High

Summary SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results. Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks, underpinned by a successful Computex keynote that shows SMCI's mission-critical role in AI developments remains intact. SMCI also benefits from tangible fundamental tailwinds ahead, with improving supplies, additive growth from its first mover advantage in the provision of DLC solutions at scale, and increasing operating leverage. Trading at 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI's fundamental strength and emerging DLC advantage remain underappreciated, with potential for further upside. JHVEPhoto Since recognizing Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:
Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High
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2023-09-12

If Lucid Doesn't Sell, I Will

Khosrork Lucid Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LCID) ongoing struggles in ramping up volumes were further accentuated during the second quarter earnings release. Deliveries were flat on a sequential basis, cutting short the quarterly run-rate improvements seen exiting 2022. The latest results continue to cast a shadow on the company's ability to sell its premium-priced electric vehicles ("EVs") in a slowing global consumer backdrop - especially in its core U.S. market. Although Lucid's recent engagement with Aston Martin (
If Lucid Doesn't Sell, I Will
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2023-08-23

Warner Bros. Discovery: Negative ROIC Is The Culprit

Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images Entertainment Editor's Note: This article was amended on 08/22/2023 to reflect updated valuation analysis assumptions. The Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) stock has been repeatedly contesting the $15 range this year but to no avail. Even after another round of upward adjustments to its synergy capture guidance to now $5+ billion through 2024 and beyond, alongside meaningful free cash flow generation and deleveraging progress, the stock has failed to sustain an uptrend. The stock has been trading consistently back towards the $12 level since its latest Q2 earnings report, which is in line with base case PT of $12 as
Warner Bros. Discovery: Negative ROIC Is The Culprit
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2024-08-20

Fundamentals Support Super Micro Computer To Rip Much Higher

Summary As discussed in our previous coverage, the start of productions and shipments of SMCI's proprietary DLC solution is a key catalyst for the stock. Margin compression risks remain a key overhang on SMCI's valuation outlook, but the continued ramp of DLC shipments will offer sustained compensation through competitive unit economics and economies of scale. Management's latest target DLC penetration rate of 25% to 30% of new global data center deployments over the next 12 months is also a material jump from previous expectations. This is a game changer for SMCI, with ensuing fundamental benefits to profitability and cash flows still underappreciated at the stock's current price. JHVEPhoto In our
Fundamentals Support Super Micro Computer To Rip Much Higher
avatarLivyInvestment
2023-09-12

Salesforce's AI Conundrum

Stephen Lam Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) has been consistently delivering this year on its "four key areas of transformation". Following our previous quarterly update on the stock, the company has delivered another round of beat and raise exiting fiscal Q2. The following analysis will discuss our updated fundamental analysis on the company considering its actual fiscal Q2 outperformance and fiscal second half ambitions. We will also be analyzing a few key takeaways from Salesforce's recently announced mandates for its AI CRM roadmap (e.g. AI Cloud architecture; Data Cloud cross-sell; Einstein GPT-integration, etc.), with discussion on relevant risks.
Salesforce's AI Conundrum

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