To The Moon

Summary We initially recommended a 100% gold allocation, then reduced it to 70% in April, and now suggest 50% due to our sentiment indicators forecasting an intermediate term correction. Gold has reached our $2,450 price target, and technical indicators suggest the current two-year rally is fully extended. Excessive "call" versus "put" buying in GLD, and high optimism among gold advisors, indicate a peak, supporting our intermediate-term correction outlook. However, our long-term gold indicator remains bullish, so we maintain a 50% gold allocation, anticipating a potential buy-back opportunity within the next year. brightstars A year and a half ago, we recommended investing in gold to 100% of one's allocation. In other words, whatever the amount of money allocated to gold, now was the time

Summary We recommend selling intermediate to long-term treasury bonds, specifically the zero coupon ETF EDV, due to the high risk indicated by the Hulbert bond market survey. Our asset allocation now includes 50% stocks, 10% bonds, 5% gold, and 35% cash equivalents, reducing exposure to bonds and gold. Despite the Fed's plan to lower short-term rates, we anticipate rising long-term rates, leading to lower bond prices and a weak market. The inverted yield curve and market forces suggest a transition to a normal yield curve, further supporting our decision to reduce long-term bond holdings. Spencer Platt/Getty Images News We believe it’s time to sell long-term treasury bonds. Our original recommendation made last

Summary Long term trend channels indicate that AAPL stock is up against strong price resistance. Indicators of investor expectations for Apple stock remain "too bullish." Large advances in AAPL seldom start from the current level of optimism. Speculation metrics of Apple stock are also too high, indicating the need for more price and/or time correction to cool things off. From a technical point of view, Apple is giving conflicting signals but there appears to be an underlying message in the conflict. Ljupco/iStock via Getty Images Apple has recently experienced a sharp sell following the abnormally large price gain from April to June. From a technical point of view, it is giving conflicting signals. But there appears to be an underlying message in the conflict. While technical analysis can

Summary Up to 50% or more of a stock’s price, either up or down, can be driven by the emotions of fear and greed alone. The "puts to calls" ratio measures these emotions and is useful at signalling market trends. Our “puts to calls” ratio compares the amount of money going into “puts” versus “calls,” not the number of contracts purchased. It's called the premium "puts to calls" ratio. The technology sector, as well as technology ETF XLK, are showing extremely low "puts to calls" ratios, suggesting caution for investors. Peach_iStock/iStock via Getty Images This is both an educational article and a forecasting report. It explains how current option activity in the technology sector shows an historically high risk area and should be avoided and/or partially sold. The Importance of Investor S

Summary The granddaddy sentiment indicator - Investors Intelligence - suggests a major stock market correction is coming later this year. The indicator shows that there are currently far too many bullish newsletter writers, indicating extreme bullish sentiment. We believe it will begin later this year, with a decline of 15% or more in the S&P 500, and last through most of 2025. A balanced portfolio of stocks, long-term AAA bonds and cash should neutralize most of the risk and also expose one to price gains if this forecast proves early or incorrect. Ljupco/iStock via Getty Images Investors Intelligence, the granddaddy of all sentiment indicators with a history back to 1964, is signalling stock market caution. Preliminary estimates suggest a correction should begin later this year, decl

Summary The Master Sentiment Indicator has again entered the red zone, indicating extreme bullish sentiment and suggesting a possible sell-off. However, it's abnormal not to have at least one correction before a major advance ends. The fact we haven’t had one is strong evidence this advance is not yet over. So, we're expecting a short, sudden sell-off, which then reverses and breaks to new highs, with the major advance finally ending sometime this August. iiievgeniy/E+ via Getty Images The Master Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - a composite made from nine, established sentiment indicators - has finally moved into the red zone. This means we've entered the zone of extreme bullish sentiment, and it suggests a short-term, market sell off. Why short

Summary High levels of buying in PSQ as a percent of assets indicate to many investors are expecting a decline in QQQ. This suggests QQQ should keep advancing and PSQ declining. The current purchase level in PSQ is four times higher than before previous major peaks, indicating too much investor interest in the short side of the market. The dollar assets in PSQ need to contract further before a rally in PSQ can be expected. Pla2na With the QQQ finally making all-time highs, many investors are wondering if it's really just a “double top” and time to short the QQQ by buying PSQ. To answer this, we're going to look at investor activity in PSQ itself, which has guided us before with this question. We’ll update the same internal indicators that we presented in our

Summary We continue to recommended allocating 30% of portfolios to long-term treasury bonds based on surveys of bond newsletter writers and clear price patterns. EDV has gained double the S&P 500 since the October recommendation, prompting inquiries about selling, but surveys still point to higher bond prices. The completion of three distinct selling waves in the bond bear market gives confidence to continue to hold EDV, extending the price target to $90. Viktor Aheiev On October 23rd, for the first time in 10 years, we recommended allocating 30% of one’s portfolio to long-term treasury bonds - specifically, the zero coupon ETF (NYSEARCA:EDV). The timing of the forecast was based on two pieces of data - the extreme number of bearish new

Summary The S&P 500 is expected to consolidate at 4,800 before breaking out and making new highs. Buying activity in SH is still too high and suggests caution on shorting the S&P 500 at current levels. Assets under management in SH are contracting but are still high enough to suggest the stock market has higher to go. chachamal/iStock via Getty Images We believe the S&P 500 will temporarily consolidate at 4,800 before breaking into new highs. We detailed the reasons for this bullish forecast in an article a week ago, S&P 500: Double Top or Breakout To New Highs? If this forecast is correct, now is not the time to buy or hold ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH) to po

Summary Last February, we suggested the nine-month decline in 2022 was the first wave of a two-section bear market, and another declining wave was coming after a large rally. We implied this second bear market should last about nine months - the same duration as the first. If it started in July, it would therefore end sometime mid May. We also suggested it would decline about the same percent - 25%. Adding to the decline since July 31st, this would suggest a further price decline of around 16%. Our two Master Sentiment Indicators show that, if this second wave of the bear market has begun, there is no sign yet that it is over. CreativaImages The Forecast In an article last February Where is the S