To The Moon

What deserves the most attention in the U.S. equity market this week is not the movement of the S&P 500 Index itself, but rather the structural changes taking place within the index. From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s overall price-to-earnings ratio remains at a relatively elevated level. Valuations in information technology, real estate, industrials, health care, and other sectors are all materially above the broader market, indicating that U.S. equities as a whole still lack a clear valuation cushion. From a fund-flow perspective, SPY has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately USD 21.6 billion since July, but fund-flow divergence across sectors has become increasingly pronounced. Capital is not simply leaving the equity market; rather, it is being reallocated a

Hello everyone. It is time once again for the Macro Strategy Weekly Report. On a regular basis, we select contributors from the community with relevant professional qualifications to share a collection of market-strategy perspectives, and we track the subsequent performance of those strategy views each week. Before starting this report, let us review the outcomes of the forecasts in our previous article. On July 21 this year, our Strategy Weekly Report published an analytical report titled: 《Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound》 It received a large number of likes and shares at the time. As indicated by its title, the report forecast a rebound in gold and a modera

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$

In the recently concluded month of June, the US stock market exhibited an extremely fragmented "frenzy." On the one hand, macro funds were extremely fearful of missing out, with the SPY's single-month net inflow surging to a staggering $15.85 billion, nearly triple the size of May's inflow. On the other hand, the valuations of micro-level giants were pushed to extremes, with Tesla taking a commanding lead at a P/E ratio of 386.12x. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$ $ProShares Ultra TSLA ETF(TSLI)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of

In the latest week, U.S.-Iran talks remained deadlocked, while Trump began his state visit to China. U.S. President Trump arrived in Beijing on the evening of May 13, marking his first trip to China in nine years. He was accompanied by more than a dozen top U.S. business leaders, including tech figures such as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The two heads of state held talks and set the tone by stating that “2026 should be a historic and landmark year that carries forward the past and opens a new chapter in China-U.S. relations.” This diplomatic progress was viewed by the market as a “new positioning” in China-U.S. relations, significantly boosting global risk appetite. As of 2:00 p.m. on May 15, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets was as follows: In an environment where macro expectations