To The Moon

Today, we are specially writing an article for Baiyin. In fact, our domestic stocks are the popular varieties, gold belongs to the niche, and silver belongs to the niche within the niche, so you have been watching me write articles, talking more about gold than silver.But the protagonist of today's article is silver.PicturesLet's look at the first picture first, this is an overlay chart of the trend of gold and silver over the past two decades. The red line is the price of gold and the yellow line is the price of silver.Judging from the historical limit values in the past few periods, the limit value and volatility of silver should be greater than those of gold, especially in the final peak acceleration stage.Therefore, when the price of gold broke through $2,700/oz, hitting a record high

Gold prices have reached record highs recently, and some market participants believe that,A tactical pullback may be on the horizon and see it as an opportunity to add positions.However, UBS released a report saying that although the overall bullish outlook for gold is solid, the market may need to catch its breath.UBS analyst JoniTeves pointed out in the report that the consolidation period at this time is beneficial to the market, especially if it allows some weak bulls to exit the market and allows long-term investors to enter the market at a better level.Generally speaking, September is a relatively low season for gold prices.Because during this month, the dollar tends to perform strongly, yields rise, and the stock market performs weakly.However, this year's situation is different. Th

A growing number of Wall Street economists are warning that,The Federal Reserve has waited too long to reverse course after raising interest rates to their highest point in two decades.At present, the market generally expects that the FOMC will keep the benchmark interest rate stable for the eighth consecutive time at its July meeting, which marks one year since the FOMC has maintained the current interest rate target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.However, for September, the market has unanimously expected that this is the most likely time node for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.I once mentioned that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance actually means that the Federal Reserve has given up its 2% inflation target, and interest rate cuts are already the next event with a high

Firstly,On Wednesday, July 3, the US ADP research institute released a report showing that the number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000.This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined and the lowest level in four months.PicturesSecond,Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 29 in the United States was 238,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000.The highest since January this year.PicturesAt the same time, data from the U.S. Department of Labor also showed that the number of people continuing to apply for u

Overnight, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting debuted. The Federal Reserve announced in the early hours of June 13, 2024, Beijing time that it would continue to maintain the target range for Federal Funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.This is the seventh consecutive time rates have been kept unchanged since September last year.The Fed's decision was in line with market expectations.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has conducted 11 rate hike, ranging from 25 basis points at the beginning to 50 basis points later, and 75 basis points for 4 consecutive times. After the subsequent rate hike gradually slowed down, so far rate hike has been suspended 7 times in a row, choosing to stay on hold. The market generally expects the Fed's next move to cut interest rat

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

According to CME "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 97.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.5%. By May, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 17.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.PictureAs can be seen from the above figure, the current price of the futures market has expected that the Fed will stay put in March and May, and the time node when it is more likely to cut interest rates will be postponed until June this year,It is basically consistent with the expectations that the Fed wanted to guide before.On February 28th, at 21:30

With the publication of comments from two important Fed directors overnight, the market speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 is more intense.First,Governor Waller, one of the Fed's toughest officials, said that the policy is in place to return the inflation rate to the Fed's target of 2%, indicating that policy makers may not need to rate hike again.Second,Bowman, another Fed governor, said she is still willing to support rate hike if inflation stagnates, but did not express her support for next month's rate hike.It should be said that the speeches of the above-mentioned two directors with permanent voting rights are dovish and hawkish, and the market directly interprets them as all dovish,That is to say, the Federal Reserve has recognized the cowardice and can't bear i

US President Biden flew to the Middle East in a hurry, but still failed to prevent the tragedy from happening.On the 17th, local time, the "Ahli Arab Hospital" (also known as Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City, Gaza Strip was attacked by air, killing at least 500 Palestinians. Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi announced in the early morning of 18th that he would cancel the quadripartite summit with the United States, Egypt and Palestine.At the meeting in Jeddah, Iran's foreign minister stressed the need to sanction Israel, impose an oil embargo and withdraw its ambassador.Affected by this, the risk aversion warmed up across the board. The price of spot gold once climbed to $1,962/oz, and WTI crude oil once surged to $88.57/barrel. At present, both of them have declined.Of course, due to the fe

According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from