To The Moon

Public Holidays Nil - for China, Hong Kong, Singapore and the US Economic Calendar (27 Feb 2023) Economic Calendar for the week starting 27 Feb 2023 Some of the notable economic data: Pending Home Sales (MoM Jan) - this will be a good barometer on the housing market in the US. CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) is a good reference of market sentiment coming to consumption. China’s PMI data are important as this can also represent global demand. US’s PMI data (non-manufacturing) will also provide market sentiments on how the US is. Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, this implies demand erosion that can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending. Initial Jobless claims are importa

In January, S-Reits posted 7.1% in total returns (based on the iEdge S-Reit Index) and booked net institutional fund inflows of S$3.2 million, outpacing STI’s 3.5% total returns.The US Federal Reserve at the Feb 1 FOMC meeting anchored to a 25 basis point (bps) hike instead of a 50bps hike, which saw 10-year US Treasury yields decline to around 3.5%.Expectations of a slower pace of interest rate increases this year could affect market sentiment towards sectors which are more sensitive to interest rates, such as Reits.Within the STI, all seven S-Reits in the index outperformed the STI’s 3.5% total returns for January.The top five performing S-Reits were Keppel DC Reit (+15.3%), Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (+9.0%), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (+8.6%),

$CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMM TR.(CPAMF)$ $CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$ Results missed but FY23 DPU still poised to grow CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) is the largest S-REIT by market capitalisation and assets in Singapore. It has a strong sponsor in CapitaLand Investment Limited, and its scale has been significantly enlarged following the completion of the merger with CapitaLand Commercial Trust in Oct 2020. CICT now offers investors diverse exposure to the suburban and downtown retail market and core CBD office sector in Singapore, coupled with a small exposure to Germany, and has recently penetrated the Australian commercial market. We see positive si

Yesterday I read a Bloomberg report that the number of hedge funds shorting U.S. Treasury futures hit a record high of 2.4 million contracts. However, hedge funds operate in many different ways, so being short on the surface does not always mean having a negative attitude toward U.S. Treasuries. In addition to shorting, investments can also be made through basis trading (buying spot and selling futures), yield curve flattening/steepening (buying long and selling short, or vice versa), or other related hedging strategies. I think this large short position in Treasuries can only indicate two things. 1. Hedge funds are pessimistic about the future price movement of Treasuries, believing that the conflict between the market and the Fed is almost over and will be won by the Fed, not for as long

Economic Calendar Economic Calendar for the week starting 19Dec22 Some notable economic announcements: Real estate (Building Permits ~ Nov, Existing Home Sales ~ Nov, New Home Sales ~ Nov. This will be a good indication on the outlook of real estate. CB Consumer confidence (Dec) From Investing.com Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. Initial Jobless Claims. This will be one of the reference points as the Fed consolidates data for the next interest rate hike in Feb 2023. Core Durable Goods Orders. This provides an outlook for manufacturing activity. Cor