To The Moon

My recent interview:"The most terrifying thing is the carry trade of the yen $Japanese Yen - main 2409(JPYmain)$ . Once it explodes, the whole world will explode, leading to the gate of hell, which is full of carry trades. Because any carry trade earns a small profit, and the carry trade of the yen is the most profitable. The interest rate of the yen is very low, and all carry trades rely on scale to magnify profits.Assuming that the interest rate spread is stable, the carry trade of the yen can continue, but now the situation is unstable. If the interest rate of the yen rises further, the Bank of Japan will definitely be out of control.Among so many central banks, the outlook of the Bank of Japan is the most unclear. It is the most controver

$Silver - main 2409(SImain)$ : Best performing asset in first half 2024Silver stocks benefited greatly from the strong silver price.$iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $Pan American Silver(PAAS)$ $Endeavour Silver(EXK)$ $ProShares UltraShort Silver(ZSL)$ $Fortuna Silver Mines(FSM)$ $MAG Silver(MAG)$ $Global X Silver Miners ETF(SIL)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV)$Below are some of my points relate to

The recent rebound in April is an example that Chinese stocks can rebound without a rebound in property. Falling property price has been a boon to discretionary spending.- China’s economy is bottoming with some upticks, not stalling - our proprietary cycle indicator shows. Manufacturing investment has made up for the fall in property investment. China’s advantage in export stems from its labor productivity and costs. It won’t disappear and will trigger trade frictions. Geopolitical risks abound. - Excess savings are coming out of bank accounts seeking yields. When confidence improves, they will likely be allocated back to stocks, instead of WMPs. The best plays in this unique cycle have been industrial commodities, instead of stocks still beset by regulatory reforms in domestic market

China cut down payments requirement of home buying to ALL TIME LOW — 15%. Mortgage rate also cut. It’s an end to the era of “home is for living in, not for speculation”.The property sector index surging another 6% from its double-bottoms, and industry leader Vanke limit up 10%.ImageMy Analysis on May 15th:

The Hang Seng $iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF(EWH)$ surging 20%, making up for all the YTD losses and entering a technical bull market. Interestingly, it is soaring past the 200d moving avg, and seems to have broken the downtrend since its peak in 2021.Image

Which nation boasts the largest gold $Gold - Apr 2024(GC2404)$ reserves? 🥇🇺🇸 United States: 8,133🇩🇪 Germany: 3,353 🇨🇳 China: 2,700 *** （This is my estimate data, China adds gold holdings for 17th consecutive month）🇮🇹 Italy: 2,452 🇫🇷 France: 2,437 🇷🇺 Russia: 2,333 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 1,040 🇯🇵 Japan: 846 🇮🇳 India: 804 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 612 🇹🇷 Turkey: 540 🇵🇹 Portugal: 383 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: 371 🇵🇱 Poland: 359 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 323White Gold MoneyGold reserves play a pivotal role in ensuring the economic resilience of a country, serving as a dependable asset during periods of financial instability. During the late 19th and much of the 20th century, the gold standard was a prevailing global practice. Under this system, countries pegged the value of their pape

美国日全食。All that you touchAnd all that you seeAll that you tasteAll you feelAnd all that you loveAnd all that you hateAll you distrustAll you saveAnd all that you giveAnd all that you dealAnd all that you buyBeg, borrow or stealAnd all you createAnd all you destroyAnd all that you doAnd all that you sayAnd all that you eatAnd everyone you meetAnd all that you slightAnd everyone you fightAnd all that is nowAnd all that is goneAnd all that's to comeAnd everything under the sun is in tuneBut the sun is eclipsed by the moon— Pink Floyd

But the market expectation was low before the conference. The meeting has focused on the property sector, high quality development and safety/security.The attention that the property sector received as measured by the frequency of mentions was as high as in the 2015 conference when the property was mired in distress as well. It also specifically said giving equal access to financing to developers regardless of ownership.Some may be disappointed by not seeing specific stimulus package coming out of the meeting. Consequently, the A50 $China A50 Index - main 2312(CNmain)$ $MSCI China A50 Index - main 2312(MCAmain)$ and the iron ore futures are muted following yesterday's late-day reversal.The confer

Core views: 1. The most difficult or least consensus judgment of our market this year is about the trend of the US economy and the corresponding Fed policy next year. This year, the market has been dominated by the belief that the US will fall into a recession, but it did not happen. Now, the market consensus is that the US may not fall into recession next year. Therefore, we can reverse the trend next year. However, we should not act randomly.2.This year's policy is not invalid. However, if you think that short-term printing money and zero interest rate policy can rescue the economy in one year, it is unlikely to turn over. It is not that the policy is useless, but that the real estate is a long-cycle asset. If you hope to return to the previous situation as in 2015 when the stock market

China is set to use Pledged Supplemental Lending to support economy. This is a strong policy signal. After we first wrote about this possibility more than two weeks ago, Bloomberg has published two news stories on this subject since then. But there are still misconception about this policy tool. This is a quantity-based policy, a true QE measure, rather than the more traditional price-based policy tools such as rate cut. When the market failed to clear using prices, it’s called a market failure and it’s the Achilles heel of efficient market hypothesis. At this juncture, there are signs of market failing to clear at both the physical and the financial real estate markets - household not borrowing despite record low rates and developers’ bonds are being priced as if they were already bankrup