To The Moon

Which nation boasts the largest gold $Gold - Apr 2024(GC2404)$ reserves? 🥇🇺🇸 United States: 8,133🇩🇪 Germany: 3,353 🇨🇳 China: 2,700 *** （This is my estimate data, China adds gold holdings for 17th consecutive month）🇮🇹 Italy: 2,452 🇫🇷 France: 2,437 🇷🇺 Russia: 2,333 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 1,040 🇯🇵 Japan: 846 🇮🇳 India: 804 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 612 🇹🇷 Turkey: 540 🇵🇹 Portugal: 383 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: 371 🇵🇱 Poland: 359 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 323White Gold MoneyGold reserves play a pivotal role in ensuring the economic resilience of a country, serving as a dependable asset during periods of financial instability. During the late 19th and much of the 20th century, the gold standard was a prevailing global practice. Under this system, countries pegged the value of their pape

美国日全食。All that you touchAnd all that you seeAll that you tasteAll you feelAnd all that you loveAnd all that you hateAll you distrustAll you saveAnd all that you giveAnd all that you dealAnd all that you buyBeg, borrow or stealAnd all you createAnd all you destroyAnd all that you doAnd all that you sayAnd all that you eatAnd everyone you meetAnd all that you slightAnd everyone you fightAnd all that is nowAnd all that is goneAnd all that's to comeAnd everything under the sun is in tuneBut the sun is eclipsed by the moon— Pink Floyd

But the market expectation was low before the conference. The meeting has focused on the property sector, high quality development and safety/security.The attention that the property sector received as measured by the frequency of mentions was as high as in the 2015 conference when the property was mired in distress as well. It also specifically said giving equal access to financing to developers regardless of ownership.Some may be disappointed by not seeing specific stimulus package coming out of the meeting. Consequently, the A50 $China A50 Index - main 2312(CNmain)$ $MSCI China A50 Index - main 2312(MCAmain)$ and the iron ore futures are muted following yesterday's late-day reversal.The confer

Core views: 1. The most difficult or least consensus judgment of our market this year is about the trend of the US economy and the corresponding Fed policy next year. This year, the market has been dominated by the belief that the US will fall into a recession, but it did not happen. Now, the market consensus is that the US may not fall into recession next year. Therefore, we can reverse the trend next year. However, we should not act randomly.2.This year's policy is not invalid. However, if you think that short-term printing money and zero interest rate policy can rescue the economy in one year, it is unlikely to turn over. It is not that the policy is useless, but that the real estate is a long-cycle asset. If you hope to return to the previous situation as in 2015 when the stock market

China is set to use Pledged Supplemental Lending to support economy. This is a strong policy signal. After we first wrote about this possibility more than two weeks ago, Bloomberg has published two news stories on this subject since then. But there are still misconception about this policy tool. This is a quantity-based policy, a true QE measure, rather than the more traditional price-based policy tools such as rate cut. When the market failed to clear using prices, it’s called a market failure and it’s the Achilles heel of efficient market hypothesis. At this juncture, there are signs of market failing to clear at both the physical and the financial real estate markets - household not borrowing despite record low rates and developers’ bonds are being priced as if they were already bankrup

$USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ $HSI(HSI)$ $FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ $ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50(XPP)$ $CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ Year two of normalization with similar trading range. The biggest normalization of 2023 is that China emerged from COVID. An extended period of seclusion naturally breeds confusion. But with improved communication, as evidenced by high-level exchanges between both sides and increased international traffic, foreign relationship should improve.At the darkest hours of last O

$CNH offshore yuan surging ~400pts. In the past month CNH had surged ~1,400pts — just when consensus was one-sided bearish.ImageThe US-China summit begins. Many of the details have indeed been discussed and likely agreed upon before the meeting. It important to maintain an open dialogue between G2. Chinese econ still weak, esp. given all the stimuli. Fiscal boost coming in 2024.Click to learn more:

Central Huijin bought $CSI300(000300.SH)$ just before market close yesterday. While the amount wasn’t disclosed, it’s estimated to be ¥8-10bn from the sudden surge of trading volume in a few of the highly liquid CSI300 ETFs. Two weeks ago when Huijin bought the big four SOE banks, it only spent <¥500m. Yesterday HK market was closed to celebrate the Double Ninth Festival. It’s the day of the most Yang (positive) energy described in Chinese classics Iching. It’s this day a new cycle begins and everything should start to rejuvenate. Foreign selling via the northbound connect channel was blamed for the market plunge. But yesterday HK was closed and onshore market sold off. Many thought the catalyst of the selloff was the option straddles that

Gray rhino or black swan?A few days ago, I had a conversation with American economist Michelle Wucker, author of the classic bestseller "Gray Rhino". Click to listen from Youtube linkThe Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (Audible Audio Edition): Michele Wucker, Christine Marshall, Michele Wucker The Gray Rhino is a risk event with a high probability of occurrence and a large impact on the system.At the moment, the potential candidates for gray rhino in the international system are lined up like a string.For example, China's real estate and municipal debt, the skyrocketing U.S. national debt, the two octogenarians of both parties in the 2024 U.S. election, the descen

Central Huijin, China’s sovereign fund under the state council, announced to increase stakes in China’s big four banks and its intention to continue to do so in the next six months. Although this round of buying only increased Huijin’s stakes in the big four banks by 0.1% each and only totaled 477mil RMB, its a recognition of very cheap valuation in China’s banking sector. For instance, as I show in chart, $ICBC(01398)$ is trading at close to its all-time-low price, 3.4x P/E and 10% dividend yield. It’s hard to deny the value it has to offer. Historically there had been six other times that Huijin bought to support the market. The buying on September 18, 2008 after Lehman collapse was a resounding success. The Chinese market rebounded 9.5% the ne