A 77% Chance of Rally After Christmas? Will You Hold?

This year's "Santa Claus rally" may arrive a little later than usual, but even so, it's better late than never.

When will the Santa Claus rally arrive?

Generally speaking, the "Santa Claus rally" refers to the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year.

This year, this period will start on December 26 (Thursday) and last until January 3, 2025.

Ned Davis Research (NDR) strategists point out that the U.S. stock market tends to perform poorly before the "Santa Claus rally" officially begins.

Although the U.S. stock market has shown some weakness before Christmas, historical data shows that even if the market doesn't start as expected, a strong rebound is still likely after the holiday.

A 77% chance of rally after Christmas?

According to data from Dow Jones Market Data, since 1950, the S&P 500 index has had an average gain of 1.3% during this period, with a 77% probability of an increase.

When the market shows poor performance in the days leading up to Christmas, it often experiences a significant rebound in the following five trading days.

Since the Fed's hawkish rate cut last week, the S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 2%.

NDR analyst London Stockton mentioned in a report on Monday:

Although there are only two days left until Christmas and the S&P 500 has already dropped 2%, historically, this has led to an average return of 2% in the five days after Christmas.

In 17 similar situations, the market mostly performed strongly after the holiday.

How do you view about Santa rally?

Late, cancelled or happening?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

# Are You Ready For Santa Rally This Week?

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  • icycrystal
    ·12-24 22:27
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    whoppee... Santa Claus rally... can't wait... can't wait that the rally will be off the chart... [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

    @rL @Shyon @Aqa @LMSunshine @koolgal @HelenJanet @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT

    Ned Davis Research (NDR) strategists point out that the U.S. stock market tends to perform poorly before the "Santa Claus rally" officially begins.

    How do you view about Santa rally?

    Late, cancelled or happening?

    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

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    • Shyon
      Hooray
      12-25 20:06
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    • TigerGPT

      作为AI财经分析师,我对圣诞节行情持乐观态度。历史数据显示,美国股市在圣诞节后的五个交易日通常会出现2%的回调,而在17个相似情况中,市场在假期后大多数情况下都表现强劲。因此,基于历史统计数据,圣诞节行情可能会带来正面影响。当然,市场行为是复杂而多变的,无法完全依赖历史数据进行准确预测。投资者应该综合考虑各种因素,包括经济数据、市场情绪和政策变化等,做出理性和谨慎的投资决策。

      作为投资者,我们不能单纯依赖某一特定的季节性行情来制定投资策略。我们应该更加关注长期的经济和市场趋势,根据公司基本面、行业前景和自身投资目标来做出投资决策。同时,风险管理也是非常重要的,投资者需要根据自己的风险承受能力来合理配置资产,避免因追逐短期行情而导致风险集中。

      请注意,以上观点仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资有风险,股市有风险,投资者应该在充分了解风险的情况下做出决策。希望您有一个愉快的圣诞节和成功的投资![圣诞老人] [圣诞树] [礼物]

      12-24 22:27
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  • Shyon
    ·12-25 20:06
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    I believe the Santa Claus rally is likely to happen, even if it's a bit delayed this year. Historically, the rally tends to show up after a period of market weakness leading up to Christmas, and it seems we’re seeing that pattern play out again. While the S&P 500 has dipped 2% before Christmas, historical data suggests that this usually precedes a strong rebound during the final trading days of the year and the first few days of the new year.

    With a 77% chance of gains, it's hard to ignore the likelihood of a rally once the holiday period begins. The positive momentum after the holiday break, combined with the holiday cheer and investors' optimism for the new year, makes it highly probable that the Santa rally will show up.

    It seems like the rally may be delayed, but I think it’s still very much in the cards! It’s just a matter of time before the market picks up again and delivers that traditional end-of-year boost. @Capital_Insights @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerGPT

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  • Emotional Investor
    ·12-25 04:47
    If everyone thinks its coming, it’s coming. I think most people think it’s coming, so let’s go Santa rally!
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  • highhand
    ·12-25 15:49
    I'm always holding 90% of my stocks. only 10% is used for trading. buy and hold beats in and out.
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