A 77% Chance of Rally After Christmas? Will You Hold?
This year's "Santa Claus rally" may arrive a little later than usual, but even so, it's better late than never.
When will the Santa Claus rally arrive?
Generally speaking, the "Santa Claus rally" refers to the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year.
This year, this period will start on December 26 (Thursday) and last until January 3, 2025.
Ned Davis Research (NDR) strategists point out that the U.S. stock market tends to perform poorly before the "Santa Claus rally" officially begins.
Although the U.S. stock market has shown some weakness before Christmas, historical data shows that even if the market doesn't start as expected, a strong rebound is still likely after the holiday.
A 77% chance of rally after Christmas?
According to data from Dow Jones Market Data, since 1950, the S&P 500 index has had an average gain of 1.3% during this period, with a 77% probability of an increase.
When the market shows poor performance in the days leading up to Christmas, it often experiences a significant rebound in the following five trading days.
Since the Fed's hawkish rate cut last week, the S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 2%.
NDR analyst London Stockton mentioned in a report on Monday:
Although there are only two days left until Christmas and the S&P 500 has already dropped 2%, historically, this has led to an average return of 2% in the five days after Christmas.
In 17 similar situations, the market mostly performed strongly after the holiday.
How do you view about Santa rally?
Late, cancelled or happening?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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Ned Davis Research (NDR) strategists point out that the U.S. stock market tends to perform poorly before the "Santa Claus rally" officially begins.
How do you view about Santa rally?
Late, cancelled or happening?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
With a 77% chance of gains, it's hard to ignore the likelihood of a rally once the holiday period begins. The positive momentum after the holiday break, combined with the holiday cheer and investors' optimism for the new year, makes it highly probable that the Santa rally will show up.
It seems like the rally may be delayed, but I think it’s still very much in the cards! It’s just a matter of time before the market picks up again and delivers that traditional end-of-year boost. @Capital_Insights @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerGPT