To The Moon

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 🤖🚀💥 Tech Titans on Thin Air, Gamma Carabiner Clicks, Thor Hammer Poised 🤖🚀💥

28 Jun 25 🇳🇿 NZST

$NDX and $QQQ both sit at critical inflection zones. The Nasdaq 100 tagged 22,591, its first record since 16 Dec 24, and now hovers just below 22,650, the heaviest zero day call wall of the year. A decisive break could drive dealer buying toward 22,752, then 23,330. First demand rests at 22,290 to 22,250, with deeper put interest clustered near 21,625. Year to date, $QQQ is up 7.77 %.

🔥 Macro Pulse

Core PCE has cooled for three straight months, pushing the 10 year Treasury yield under 4.15 %, easing valuation pressure on growth. Futures price the first Fed cut by September and a second by October if inflation cooperates. Street models project tech sector Q2 EPS growth near 17 %, far above the S&P 500’s 10 %, fueled by the AI infrastructure boom.

💸 Capital Flow Radar

Roughly US $5.4 billion has flowed into QQQ related ETFs over the past seven sessions. JPMorgan’s month end model signals another US $19 billion equity bid, nearly half directed to technology. Corporate buybacks average US $3.2 billion per day now blackout windows have lifted. Realised correlation among Nasdaq members sits at 0.31 versus the five year norm of 0.46, a fertile backdrop for dispersion trades.

📊 Technical Canvas

Thursday printed a small upper shadow candle dubbed the Thor Hammer, hinting at short term fatigue, yet the trend remains intact. $NDX trades above the 5, 10 and 20 week moving averages, 21,753, 21,070 and 20,430 respectively. Daily RSI reads 73, a healthy 3 % pullback would fill the open gap near $531.90 on QQQ and cool momentum without damaging structure. Anchored VWAP from the April low sits at 21,980, marking deeper support. The decade visual shows a 16.99 % compound annual growth rate since 2015, explaining constant dip demand.

⚡ Options Currents

SpotGamma highlights about US $470 million of positive gamma at 22,650. Dealers now sell strength and buy weakness, but a break above flips them negative gamma, forcing upside chasing. Put gamma only becomes meaningful below 21,625, leaving an air pocket if sentiment sours. Short interest in QQQ stands at 1.8 % of float, low yet capable of amplifying squeezes.

🗞️ Recent Events

• Nvidia H series AI accelerators reportedly sold out through Q3, per Bloomberg, reinforcing data centre momentum.

• Micron reports 30 Jun, consensus looks for a high bandwidth memory driven beat and revenue guide above 20 % year over year.

• Fed tone remains cautiously dovish with jobless claims drifting higher.

• Tesla target cut to US $220 by Barclays on 27 Jun after softer delivery outlook.

• Chip Export Policy may ease for Gulf allies, expanding Nvidia’s addressable market.

🏦 Hedge Fund and Analyst Chatter

• Goldman Sachs lifted its year end $NDX target to 23,500 citing AI capex and easier policy.

• Morgan Stanley stays cautious with a $QQQ 550 call, about 22,800 on $NDX, noting curve steepening risk.

• Citadel and Millennium added roughly US $2.1 billion of tech ETF exposure last week.

• Consensus remains green for Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, amber for Alphabet, red for Tesla.

🕰 Historical Lens

Friday ends a 137 day record drought, the longest since the 2022 bear phase. After similar pauses in 1995 and 2013, three month forward gains averaged 6.2 %, with typical interim drawdowns of minus 4.4 %.

🔍 Peer Check

The S&P 500 reclaimed 6,159, up 23 % since the April low, while equal weight RSP lags by 4 %, underscoring concentration risk. Seventy two percent of Nasdaq constituents sit above their 50 day averages, yet only 49 % cleared three month volume on the last session, indicating selective accumulation.

🔮 Forward Scenarios

Bull Case ~ 60 %

• Trigger: Close above 22,650 on at least 1.5 × average volume, gamma flip

• Target: First to 22,752, then 23,330

• Guardrail: Trail stop at 22,280

Base Case ~ 35 %

• Trigger: Range between 22,650 and 22,290 while RSI cools

• Target: Premium decay benefits option sellers

• Guardrail: Hedge vega with calendar spreads

Bear Case ~ 5 %

• Trigger: Ten year yield spikes above 4.40 % or hawkish Fed rhetoric

• Target: Drop to 21,625 on AI sentiment reversal

• Guardrail: Tight risk beneath 21,980 anchored VWAP

📋 Watchlist

• Micron 30 Jun earnings for HBM guidance

• ISM manufacturing and services data to confirm soft landing outlook

• SpotGamma flip levels 22,650 and 21,625, updated three times daily

• Ten year yields and Fed speakers as macro pulse

🧠 Contrarian Insight

Communication services multiples have expanded faster than semis this quarter. If $NDX pops above 22,650, pair a long index future with shorts in extended social media names such as META at 24 × forward earnings to harvest dispersion alpha while tempering macro shocks.

🚨 Risk Matrix

Momentum is crowded, call skew elevated, liquidity thin below 22,250. Hedge with put spreads starting 22,250, financed by selling 22,900 calls that expire after the holiday week. Keep hard stops just under 21,980 anchored VWAP.

✅ Playbook

• Long term holders: Nasdaq’s 17 % ten year CAGR validates dollar cost averaging into QQQ. Hold core, trim 5 % above 22,750, reload on a 3 % gap fill dip.

• Swing traders: Buy a daily close above 22,650 on 1.5 × volume, target 23,330, stop 22,280. If the gap fills first, enter at 22,290 with a tight 22,200 stop.

• Options crew: Sell the 22,650 straddle into month end, delta hedge intraday. If gamma flips, close calls, keep puts, ride delta momentum.

📈 Conclusion

The Nasdaq 100 balances euphoric AI narratives against a mechanical gamma trap. History suggests fresh highs often extend, yet option positioning warns of stall speed where conviction peaks. Trade levels, not headlines, and monitor $NDX and $QQQ for the breakout or reversal signal.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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