To The Moon

$CME Bitcoin - main 2507(BTCmain)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ⚡️⚡️Bitcoin Surges to $120K: Miners Ramp, Liquidity Swells, and the Corporate Arms Race Begins🚨⚡️

I’m watching this play out live 🇳🇿 NZST on 12 July 2025, and it’s gripping. Bitcoin tagged $120,000 intraday for the first time ever before pulling back to $117,383.00. Bitcoin is up +5.8%–6.3% in the past 24 hours, but this isn’t about one spike. This move is structured, it’s sticky, and it’s being driven by deep-pocketed corporate and institutional buyers, not retail hype.

I think we’re still in the middle innings of this move. The charts, the hashrate, the momentum, and the positioning are all aligned. This rally could extend through August, pushing toward $136K and possibly $150K if policy and liquidity stay supportive. Let’s break it down.

🧠 Fundamentals: Corporate Capital Is the Real Whale

MicroStrategy holds 597,325 BTC at an average of $70,982, and it’s now sitting on over $21B in unrealised profit. That blueprint is being copied. Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, and Bitfarms are all expanding their BTC reserves or ramping up hashrate. CLSK, in particular, is cashing in on one of the most profitable hashprice environments since 2021.

In late June and early July, 🇩🇪 Germany offloaded 50,000 BTC at an average of around $54,000, locking in a $2.93B loss. That fire sale was instantly absorbed by institutions. Q2 2025 saw 131,000 BTC flow into public company treasuries, outpacing ETF inflows. That’s not noise, it’s structural demand.

The 2024 SEC ETF approval unlocked $6.5B for BlackRock’s IBIT in a month. Trump’s strategic reserve idea, his “currency freedom” rhetoric, and the SEC shake-up with Paul Atkins all point toward a deregulatory stance that could further catalyse corporate buying. Still, I’m cautious. Tariff risks and the $3.3T debt ceiling bill could add pressure if policy whiplash kicks in.

⚙️ Technicals Confirm the Charge

Bitcoin spiked to $120,000 before settling at $117,554.56. On the weekly chart, price has broken cleanly above the $113,750 pivot and is riding all major moving averages:

   •   MA5: $107,828.75

   •   MA10: $106,654.95

   •   MA20: $96,418.07

   •   MA30: $96,683.50

The Gann Square resistance zone between $117K and $118K has been breached. The measured move from the current wedge implies a target near $136,000.

The Ichimoku Tenkan-sen has now turned upward: something I flagged weeks ago as a key acceleration point. And sure enough, price responded.

Momentum indicators still support upside:

   •   RSI(6): 79.13 (elevated, but not divergent)

   •   RSI(24): 67.11 (strong trend)

   •   MACD DIF: 6,624.90

   •   MACD DEA: 5,377.20

   •   Histogram: +2,495.40

If support holds above $113,750, I think $125,000 gets tagged by late July. A weekly close above $120K would unlock $136K by mid-August, consistent with the 19–26 week intermediate trend durations from the past two cycles.

🪓 Hashrate Surge: Miners Chasing the Moon

Hashrate hit 1.025 ZH/s intraday on 11 July, up from 922.57 EH/s. That’s a massive spike aligning with the $113,750 breakout. More miners likely switched on rigs the moment profitability surged.

Exchange inflows are declining, miner balance sheets are strong, and the hash velocity feedback loop is in full effect.

📈 Miner Momentum in Equities:

   •   CLSK: $12.72 ~ pushing toward $24 breakout target, riding hashprice wave

   •   BITF: $1.08 ~ double bottom forming, reclaimed 20-week SMA

   •   MARA: $19.43 ~ tracking Bitcoin closely, strong beta breakout

This isn’t just a BTC rally anymore; it’s a hashrate arms race.

📉 Volatility & Convexity: Calm Before the Explosion

BTC/Deribit’s Momentum Q-Score is maxed out at 5. Meanwhile, the Volatility Q-Score remains unusually low. That divergence is rare and powerful. It suggests a high conviction trend, with cheap convexity and minimal turbulence.

With $5B in open interest expiring in late July, a sustained move above $120K could trigger a gamma squeeze into clustered resistance. I’m watching $108K and $113.75K as structural supports.

🧪 Ethereum’s Quiet Surge: Unlocking the Next Leg to $3,500?

🇳🇿NZST on 12 July 2025, tracking Ethereum’s chart and the Q-Crypto Direction model. ETH is holding around $2,956.82, up a modest 0.02% today, but the signals are telling a deeper story. This isn’t noise; it’s a structurally supported rally with staking strength, upgrade tailwinds, and institutional inflows.

Fundamentally, the Dencun upgrade in March 2024 slashed Layer 2 costs by up to 90%, accelerating adoption across DeFi. By mid-2025, total value locked has surged to $150B, and over 28 million ETH (about 23% of supply) is now staked, generating over $10B in annual rewards. This is locking up supply and reducing volatility. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF pulled in $2.3B by June, and JPMorgan is exploring ETH as a settlement layer. That’s long-term capital, not short-term hype.

Technically, ETH is trading above all key moving averages:

   •   MA5: $2,534.69

   •   MA10: $2,526.78

   •   MA20: $2,192.69

   •   MA30: $2,493.50

The Q-Model remains bullish (signal at +1 since mid-June), with green “High Bullish Probability” zones dominating the recent chart. RSI(6) at 6.12 and RSI(24) at 54.37 suggest momentum is building, not exhausted. A breakout above $2,970.40 could set up a push to $3,200 by late July and $3,500 by August. Support sits around $2,500, with $2,192.69 (MA20) as downside cushion.

I’m watching the staking flows closely. So far, no meaningful unwind. On-chain activity is rising, Layer 2 use is strong, and gas fees remain retail-friendly post-Dencun. This is a rally with legs, not hype.

Macro tailwinds from Trump’s deregulatory stance and Fed rate cuts to 3.5% by mid-2025 are supporting ETH alongside BTC. But I’m keeping one eye on inflation (now 3.2%) and the SEC’s June commentary hinting at staking-as-security classification.

If $2,970 breaks, ETH could catch up to Bitcoin’s breakout narrative fast.

📊 Historical Anchoring: 2025 Is Still Underachieving

So far, Bitcoin’s up just 24% YTD. But history suggests that rebounds following large drawdowns often overshoot:

   •   2016: +125% after consolidation

   •   2017: +1331% (post-halving)

   •   2020: +301%

   •   2023: +156% after 2022’s -65% collapse

2025 still has room to run. The structural setup, post-halving trajectory, and institutional accumulation are aligned.

📊 Comparative Context: Dominance, Efficiency, and the Layer 1 Landscape

Bitcoin still commands the lion’s share of crypto market capitalisation, holding 63.92% dominance as of this week. It’s the clear institutional reserve asset, validated by corporate treasury holdings and macro narratives. But Ethereum’s role is more dynamic — functioning as a programmable settlement layer that anchors DeFi, NFTs, and tokenisation rails.

From an efficiency perspective, Ethereum’s post-Merge architecture and Layer 2 growth deliver superior transaction throughput and lower fees compared to Bitcoin’s L1. The Dencun upgrade was a material leap in AMIM (average meaningful interaction metric), cutting Layer 2 costs to just $0.01–$0.05 in many cases, while Bitcoin fees remain more volatile and often retail-inhibitive.

When you consider market structure, ETH’s liquidity is second only to BTC, but with higher address activity and protocol-level innovation velocity. On-chain TVL and smart contract deployments give it a different kind of economic density, less reserve-store, more utility-layer.

As for competitors, Solana’s strong TPS and cheap transactions continue to draw developers, but frequent downtime and centralisation concerns remain headwinds. Litecoin, while historically relevant, is now more of a beta asset, it tracks BTC with slightly more volatility but has lost mindshare among developers and institutional allocators.

Looking ahead, I believe Bitcoin retains the monetary mantle through 2025–2026. But Ethereum’s total addressable market expands faster. If scaling and staking continue to evolve as expected, Ethereum could command a 30–35% market share by 2030, especially as tokenisation, RWAs, and AI-integrated DeFi gain traction.

🚨 Trump Tailwind: Hype or Structural Driver?

I’m cautiously optimistic. Trump’s SEC pick (Paul Atkins), “currency freedom” policy, and the strategic reserve trial balloon are real catalysts. His April tariff pause sent MSTR +24% and COIN +19%. If those policies lock in by Q4, and a second-term presidency looks likely, Bitcoin may start pricing that in.

I’m not saying $200K is guaranteed. But it’s no longer a meme: it’s a top-scenario projection if the liquidity, political, and allocation stars align.

📊 Tiger Trader Watchlist

   •   MSTR: $429.54 ~ 597,325 BTC on balance sheet

   •   COIN: $383.97 ~ benefiting from institutional activity

   •   MARA: $19.43 ~ high-beta BTC proxy

   •   CLSK: $12.72 ~ hashprice beneficiary, breakout setup

   •   BITF: $1.08 ~ bullish pattern forming with SMA reclaim

These are volatility amplifiers, not passive exposure. I’m watching OI shifts, volume spikes, and RSI conditions across all five.

🧮 Risks I’m Quantifying (With Probabilities)

   •   10% chance: breakdown below $106,668 (MA10) from liquidation flush

   •   15% chance: RSI divergence or MACD histogram rollover

   •   20% chance: political instability from tariff reversals or Trump-Musk fallout

   •   25% chance: miner margins get squeezed by energy costs or hashprice flattening

   •   30% chance: macro shock from yield spikes or $DXY strength

None of these are dominant yet. But if two or more cluster, I’ll adjust exposure.

🎯 Conclusion: This Rally Still Has Range ~ and Real Catalysts

Bitcoin’s at $117,554.56, but this isn’t a peak. The Gann resistance has been tested. Tenkan has turned. Hashrate is exploding. Momentum is firm. Structural demand has absorbed everything: from 🇩🇪 Germany’s $2.93B fire sale to macro jitters.

I see Bitcoin reaching $125K in the short term, $136K by August, and possibly $150K by Q4 if Trump’s policy path firms up. The $200K question? It’s no longer a meme; it’s a scenario I’m actively modelling as institutional adoption and political realignment gain traction.

And now, with Ethereum flashing a clean directional breakout on the Q-model, this cycle is broadening. Watch both leaders, one has already roared, and the other might be next.

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