To The Moon

Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ) is under the spotlight as it gears up to release its Q2 2025 earnings on July 23, 2025, with expectations of a soft performance after a 14% year-over-year delivery drop to 384,122 vehicles. Investors are bracing for a potential earnings miss, with consensus forecasting an adjusted EPS of $0.30, down 29% from $0.42 in Q2 2024, and revenue of $19.34 billion, down 9% from $21.3 billion. Yet, all eyes are on CEO Elon Musk’s commentary, particularly regarding the Model Y L, a six-seater luxury all-electric SUV set to launch this fall, primarily targeting China’s competitive EV market. Can the Model Y L be Tesla’s earnings savior, or will the stock consolidate or break out? This report dives into Tesla’s Q2 outlook, the Model Y L’s potential, and strategic investment approaches to navigate this high-stakes moment while managing risks.

Q2 2025 Earnings: A Tough Act to Follow

Tesla’s Q2 performance is expected to reflect ongoing challenges:

• Deliveries: Q2 deliveries fell 14% year-over-year to 384,122 vehicles, slightly below Wall Street’s 387,000 estimate, per Electrek. This follows a 13% drop in Q1 2025 to 336,681 vehicles, signaling demand weakness in key markets like China.

• Revenue: Analysts project $19.34 billion, down 9% from $21.3 billion in Q2 2024, with automotive revenue expected to slide 20% to $14 billion from $17.4 billion, per CNBC.

• EPS: Consensus forecasts an adjusted EPS of $0.30, down 29% from $0.42 in Q2 2024, reflecting margin pressures from price cuts and higher costs, per Yahoo Finance.

• Margin Headwinds: Elevated operating expenses and capital expenditures ($10 billion in 2025, matching 2024 levels) for gigafactory expansions, 4680 battery production, and AI technologies are squeezing profits. An inventory build-up of ~26,000 vehicles in Q1 suggests further discounting risks.

Tesla’s mixed earnings history—beating EPS estimates twice and missing twice over the past year—adds uncertainty. A +0.82% Earnings ESP suggests a slight chance of a beat, but weak deliveries temper optimism, per TipRanks.

Model Y L: A Potential Game-Changer

The Model Y L, announced on July 15, 2025, is a six-seater luxury all-electric SUV designed to capture China’s family-oriented EV market, where Tesla’s sales fell 13.5% in Q2 to ~70,000 units. Key features include:

• Design: A spacious six-seater configuration with a full-width front light bar, heated/ventilated seats, a second-row touchscreen, and an extended range of up to 719 kilometers, building on the refreshed Model Y launched in 2025.

• Pricing: Expected at $40,000-$45,000, a premium over the standard Model Y’s 263,500 Chinese yuan ($35,935), but competitive pricing could challenge rivals like BYD’s Han EV ($35,000) and Xiaomi’s YU7.

• Launch Timeline: Set for fall 2025 (September-November), with deliveries starting in Q4 2025, pending regulatory approval in China.

• Market Potential: Analysts estimate a 10-15% delivery boost in 2026 if the Model Y L gains traction, potentially adding $2-$3 billion to annual revenue, per BloombergNEF.

Elon Musk’s commentary on the earnings call will be critical, focusing on production timelines, pricing strategy, and demand expectations. A bullish outlook could reignite investor enthusiasm, offsetting Q2’s softness.

Can Tesla Break or Consolidate?

Tesla’s stock, at $315.35 (up 10% YTD), faces a pivotal moment:

• Bull Case: A strong Model Y L outlook, cost-cutting measures, or AI Ascertain the right time to buy AMD, TSMC, ASML, BYD, or NIO? Are these stocks catching up to Nvidia’s rally? Which companies are you most bullish on in AI, auto, and chips in China?

AMD’s China Surge: Your Second Chance at the AI Chip Boom?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is stealing the spotlight, soaring 6% to $185.50 on July 15, 2025, after the U.S. approved resumed sales of its MI308 AI chips to China, a move that could unlock $2-$3 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, Broadcom (AVGO) hit a new high of ~$1,300 after unveiling its Tomahawk Ultra chip, positioning itself as a formidable Nvidia rival, while the chip sector rides a wave of AI-driven demand. For investors who missed Nvidia’s meteoric rise to a $4 trillion market cap, AMD, TSMC, and BYD offer compelling opportunities in AI, auto, and China’s chip market. But which stocks have the most upside, and which sectors should you bet on? This report dives into AMD’s rally, Broadcom’s momentum, and top picks across AI, auto, and China chips, with strategic investment approaches to seize this opportunity while managing risks.

AMD’s China Catalyst: A Game-Changer

AMD’s announcement to restart MI308 chip sales to China, following U.S. Commerce Department approval, has ignited investor enthusiasm. The MI308, part of AMD’s MI300 series, is a high-performance AI accelerator designed to compete with Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell chips. China, representing ~20% of AMD’s revenue before 2025 export restrictions, is a critical market, and resuming sales could add $2-$3 billion annually, per analyst estimates, offsetting an $800 million hit from earlier bans.

• Market Impact: The 6% stock surge to $185.50 reflects optimism, with X users calling it “AMD’s China rebound” and predicting a run to $200-$210. The move follows Nvidia’s approval to resume H20 sales, signaling a U.S. policy shift amid improving U.S.-China relations.

• AI Chip Strength: AMD’s MI308 offers up to 32% higher performance in certain AI workloads compared to Nvidia’s H100, with double the memory and greater bandwidth. Its adoption in data centers and supercomputers, like the El Capitan exascale system, bolsters its AI credentials.

• Financial Boost: Q1 2025 data center revenue grew 30% to $2.3 billion, with analysts expecting Q2 revenue (August 5, 2025) to hit $6.7 billion, up 15% year-over-year, driven by MI308 and Instinct accelerators.

Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with posts like “AMD’s MI308 is Nvidia’s nightmare—$200 by Q4!” but some warn of “overbought risks” given its 25x forward P/E.

Broadcom’s Tomahawk Ultra: A Nvidia Challenger

Broadcom’s stock hit a new high of ~$1,300 after unveiling its Tomahawk Ultra chip, designed for AI data center networking with 800 Gbps performance, directly challenging Nvidia’s InfiniBand solutions. With a $600 billion market cap and 30% YTD gain, Broadcom’s diversified portfolio—spanning AI, wireless, and networking—makes it a strong contender:

• Market Impact: The Tomahawk Ultra’s launch drove a 5% stock surge, with X users calling it “Broadcom’s AI power play” and predicting $1,400-$1,500 targets.

• Growth Drivers: Q1 2025 revenue grew 43% to $12.5 billion, with AI-related sales up 280% to $3.1 billion. Partnerships with Apple and Google bolster its position.

• Risks: A 35x forward P/E and tariff risks (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) could cap gains, with a potential pullback to $1,200-$1,250.

Top Picks in AI, Auto, and China Chips

For investors who missed Nvidia’s rally, here are top stocks across AI, auto, and China’s chip sector:

AI Sector

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ): The world’s largest chip foundry reported a Q2 2025 earnings beat with $20.8 billion in revenue (up 39% YoY) and raised its full-year guidance to $114 billion. Trading at $185.50 with a 25x P/E, it’s a must-own for AI chip exposure, targeting $200-$210.

• AMD ( $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ ): Up 55% YTD to $185.50, AMD’s MI308 and Instinct accelerators are gaining traction, with China sales adding $2-$3 billion. Targets $200-$210, with support at $170-$180.

• Broadcom ( $Broadcom(AVGO)$ ): Up 30% YTD to $1,300, its Tomahawk Ultra chip and AI revenue growth make it a diversified play, targeting $1,400-$1,500.

Auto Sector (China Focus)

• BYD ( $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ ): China’s top EV maker, up 33% YTD to $60, dominates with models like the Seagull ($10,000) and Han EV ($35,000). Its AI integration for autonomous driving targets $80-$90.

• NIO ( NIO): A premium Chinese EV maker, up 25% YTD to $5.50, with expansion in Europe and AI-driven features. Targets $7-$8, with support at $5.

Chips in China

• SMIC (SMI): China’s largest chipmaker, up 20% YTD to $15, produces 7nm chips despite U.S. sanctions. Targets $20-$25, but geopolitical risks cap upside.

• Hua Hong Semiconductor (HHUSF): Up 15% YTD to $2.50, focuses on mature nodes with less sanction exposure. Targets $3.50-$4.

My Top Picks

I’m most bullish on TSMC for its AI foundry dominance, AMD for its direct Nvidia competition and Chains sales, and BYD for its EV leadership and AI integration. TSMC offers stability, AMD provides speculative upside, and BYD taps China’s EV boom.

Can AMD Keep Rising?

AMD’s 55% YTD gain to $185.50, driven by MI308 sales to China, positions it as a strong alternative to Nvidia:

• Technical Analysis: Resistance at $190-$200 is key; a breakout could target $210-$220. Support at $170-$180 aligns with the 50-day moving average, with RSI at 65 indicating room for upside.

• Analyst Targets: Wedbush’s $200 target and Mizuho’s $160 suggest 8-13% upside, with Morgan Stanley’s $195 reflecting AI optimism.

• Growth Drivers: Q2 revenue expected at $6.7 billion (up 15% YoY), with MI308 and Instinct accelerators driving 30% data center growth.

• Risks: Nvidia’s 90% AI chip market share, tariff disruptions (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada), and a 25x P/E pose challenges, with a potential pullback to $150-$160 if earnings disappoint.

AMD could hit $200-$210 by year-end if Q2 earnings (August 5, 2025) beat expectations and China sales scale, but volatility demands caution.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy AMD on Dip: Enter at $170-$180, target $200-$210, stop at $165. An 11-18% gain if Q2 earnings beat or China sales surge.

• Buy TSMC on Dip: Grab at $170-$180, target $200-$210, stop at $165. An 11-18% gain on AI demand.

• Buy BYD on Dip: Enter at $55-$60, target $80-$90, stop at $50. A 25-50% gain if EV sales rebound.

• Options Straddle: Buy $185.50 calls/puts on AMD or $1,300 calls/puts on AVGO for earnings volatility.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold AMD: Buy at $170-$180, target $220-$250 over 12 months, for 18-39% upside with AI and China growth.

• Hold TSMC: Buy at $170-$180, target $220-$250, for 18-39% upside with foundry dominance.

• Hold BYD: Buy at $55-$60, target $100-$120, for 50-75% upside with EV and AI growth.

• Diversify with Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Buy at $220, target $260, stop at $200, for broad sector exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on AMD, TSMC, and BYD, seeing 8-13% upside for AMD and TSMC, and 25-50% for BYD by year-end 2025. I’ll buy AMD at $170-$180, targeting $200-$210, with a $165 stop, TSMC at $170-$180, targeting $200-$210, with a $165 stop, and BYD at $55-$60, targeting $80-$90, with a $50 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) escalate. I’ll monitor AMD’s Q2 earnings (August 5), tariff negotiations, and AI/EV trends for cues.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

AMD’s 6% surge to $185.50, driven by resumed MI308 sales to China, positions it as a top pick for investors who missed Nvidia’s $4 trillion rally. TSMC’s Q2 earnings beat and $114 billion guidance make it a stable AI play, while BYD’s EV dominance and AI integration offer high-growth potential in China’s auto market. Broadcom’s Tomahawk Ultra chip adds diversified AI exposure. However, tariff risks, competition from Nvidia and Intel, and geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict, oil at $75/barrel) could trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000. Investors should buy on dips for long-term upside, use options for volatility plays, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. The AI and EV chip boom is alive—pick your winners and trade smart.

Which stock are you most bullish on—AMD, TSMC, or BYD? Are you buying or hedging? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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