To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will be releasing its Q2 2025 earnings on Wed, 23 Jul 2025 after market closes for the day.

Thereafter, the fate of the car maker will be decided.

Tesla's Q2 earnings could not have come at a worst time when:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are surging to new highs. (see below)

• With fears of Trump's global tariff war seemingly have ebbed, compared to April 2025 when it was first announced.

To top it off, while other auto stocks have recovered, while Tesla is still down around -13.39% YTD, with sector tariffs of +25% on foreign cars and parts still in place. (see below)

As of 21 Jul 2025

Currently, the focus is on:

• Its struggling core auto business.

• Future of its robotaxi rollout.

Below are the 3 Tesla items to watch out for come Wed, 23 Jul 2025:

Core Business.

Despite Musk's embrace of a robot-driven future, electric vehicles (EVs) manufacturing remain as Tesla's bread and butter — its core, that drives the huge majority of revenue and profit at Tesla.

As per Bloomberg’s estimates, the company is expected to report Q2 revenue of $22.79 billion, that will be a whooping -9.0% drop, compared with Q2 2024’s YoY $25.05 billion.

From profitability standpoint, Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion, down marginally from a year ago.

Musk's ‘stinking’ reputational hit stemmed from:

• His political activities.

• Rise of better competition (especially from Chinese EV, BYD).

• US consumer preferences for vehicles like hybrids.

have Tesla and the EV industry as a whole worried.

For Tesla, weakness in key regions like EU (in particular) has been an ongoing issue.

Latest registration data shows US sales sliding as well.

As a result, Tesla delivered only 384,122 vehicles globally in Q2, marking another whooping -13.5% YoY decline.

The changeover to the refreshed Model Y may have blunted sales.

Now, the main question for management is how available the new Model Y is, in Tesla’s main selling regions, namely - China, US and the EU (in that order).

Robotaxi Expansion Plan.

On the “bright” side for Tesla is Musk's big bet on the future with robotaxis.

Tesla and Musk will most likely focus on that business, and this may perhaps point to future rollout plans with more cars and regions.

Tesla has expanded its robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, with a bigger operating area and likely more vehicles coming.

Musk said the company would expand testing to the San Francisco Bay Area, but reports suggest the applications for those state permits have not been submitted.

While the good news is that the test began on time as Musk proposed in mid-May, Tesla still has a long way to go.

Sidetrack : Competition In Motion.

Despite the advanced headstart / advantages, Tesla’s competitors are not resting on their laurels.

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ - Waymo, the leader in autonomous driving space, has been expanding its robotaxi deployments in the US.

The other potential competitor, $Uber(UBER)$ is doing so as well with its technology partners eg. $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$, $Baidu(BIDU)$ etc...

In greater details, UBER has inked a massive deal with LCID and autonomous software firm Nuro (privately owned) to launch its own robotaxi service in 2026. (see above)

According to Barclays, Analyst, Dan Levy:

• Q2 earnings call presents an opportunity for Tesla to highlight its (a) robotaxi and (b) self-driving car plans, that have been the pillar strength and hope of Tesla’s stock.

• Could ‘foresee’ Musk talking (again!) about (i) goals for growing the robotaxi fleet or (ii) plans to expand the service.

When it comes to Musk, its all talk and no concrete actions. That is why it is forever “too late”.

Budget EV ?

In its Q2 2024 earnings report, Tesla said production remains on track for new vehicles, likely including a cheaper EV, in H1 2025.

Investors and analysts are still waiting.

So far, there has been no indication or even renderings of a new vehicle, let alone production of a vehicle priced around $30,000.

Tesla's cheapest EV is the rear-wheel-drive Model 3 sedan, that starts at around $43,000 without incentives.

Investors will be very keen to:

• Hear more about the development of the long-awaited cheaper EV that Tesla has promised.

• Hear about possible other new vehicles that TSLA has said would allow it to return to a +50% growth rate compared to 2023.

The most likely scenario is not a good one for Tesla bulls — a delay in revealing the cheaper EV.

Barclays, Analyst, Dan Levy further added:

• Tesla’s new low-cost model have missed the goal to start production in H1 2025.

• Tesla may focus on boosting sales in Q3 2025, before US’s $7,500 EV tax credit ends on 30 Sep 2025.

• As such, the new low-cost EV launch, could be pushed to Q4 2025, that might be seen as negative by investors.

• A weaker business trends and the need for more money for (1) self-driving and (2) AI development could lead Tesla to eventually sell more shares to raise funds.

Should TSLA announces a dilutive share offering, it would surely be unwelcome news that will cause the stock to fall & investors to flee. Investors — glue your ears to the ground !

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• Do you think TSLA’s CEO sharing big plans in Q2 2025 earnings, can help keep its stock price elevated, just like how talk of robotaxi launch in Q1 2025 supported TSLA?

• Do you think TSLA will resort to selling TSLA share to raise money to fund the required activities ?

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