To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long UBER Daily ETF(UBRL)$ 🧠🚗📈 Uber’s Global Playbook: The Next Trillion-Dollar Platform? 📈🚗🧠

🎯 Executive Summary:

I’m extremely confident Uber Technologies ($UBER) is entering a structural rerating phase. While the stock has pulled back 10% from July’s highs near $97.71 to $86.90, it’s approaching a key technical inflection at $85.24; this is precisely where a gap from June 23 resides, and where historical resistance turned support in May and June. I see this not as weakness, but as a bullish reset within a long-term uptrend. Uber has surged 45% YTD, handily outperforming rival Lyft (+9%) and now sits at the heart of industrial sector strength. With earnings this Wednesday and rising institutional interest, I believe we’re at the cusp of a new growth chapter. $UBER isn’t just a rideshare company anymore; it’s an AI-powered logistics, advertising, and autonomous infrastructure powerhouse.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown:

Mobility and Delivery gross bookings have grown 156.6% and 214.6% respectively since 2020. LTM figures show $86B in mobility bookings and $77B in delivery, with a total CAGR of 23.3% and 29.0%. Uber now commands $82B in annualized gross bookings and $3.1B in adjusted EBITDA (up 45% YoY in Q1’25). Revenue acceleration has defied post-COVID pessimism. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi expects over $12B in FCF by 2027. Consensus estimates show Uber is not just beating expectations, it’s setting them.

Bloomberg consensus for Q2 (to be reported on 06Aug25 before market open) expects revenue of $12.47B (+16% YoY), adjusted net profit of $1.668B (+13.4%), and adjusted EPS of $0.83 (+21.5%). These estimates anchor Uber firmly in a high-growth yet increasingly profitable regime, making this week’s report a pivotal catalyst.

In Q1, Uber achieved revenue of $11.53B (+14% YoY), slightly below the $11.62B expected. However, adjusted EPS of $0.83 crushed estimates of $0.50, showcasing exceptional operational leverage. Free cash flow and operating cash flow both exceeded $2.3B (+66% YoY), validating Uber’s maturity and cost discipline. Total trips rose 18% to 3.07B, while MAPCs reached 171M (+14% YoY). Usage frequency outpaced user growth; clear proof of increasing platform stickiness.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk:

Execution risk remains in AV rollout timelines and regulatory fragmentation. Uber’s $300M investment into $LCID to deploy robotaxis across 70+ countries is long-term bullish, but AV cost-per-mile (currently ~$2) must drop meaningfully to unlock TAM. Also, while ad monetization and merchant tools are promising, consumer data use may draw scrutiny. However, Uber’s moat, with 30M Uber One subscribers and dominant market share in 108 countries, helps it absorb shocks better than peers.

Additionally, affordability remains a critical edge. Uber’s average fare of $30.35 in Indiana, 43% lower than Washington’s $53.46, demonstrates its ability to penetrate and dominate cost-sensitive regions. These lower-fare zones serve as volume accelerants and reinforce Uber’s long-term pricing elasticity and earnings leverage across geographies.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment:

I’m seeing strengthening sentiment. UBS analyst Stephen Ju raised his PT to $115 (from $107), reiterating Buy. Average price target across 46 analysts is $100.06, with a high of $120 and low of $76. That’s a 15.14% upside from here. Uber remains underowned and is a constituent of $XLI. The ETF is up 13% YTD, outpacing the $SPX. Short interest sits at 8.76M shares, with a short ratio of 10.58% and days to cover at 5.82, suggesting any earnings beat could trigger a squeeze.

📉📈 Technical Setup:

Weekly chart shows a long-term rising channel with the latest high at $97.715 and key Fibonacci supports at $85.24 and $80. RSI is neutral, holding above 50. MACD on the 4H chart is nearing a crossover. On the 30m chart, price is compressing under descending EMAs with Bollinger and Keltner Bands tightening, indicating a potential volatility breakout. Keltner support sits just below $86. A break above $91 would trigger bullish momentum and retest $93.71. Holding $85 keeps the bullish thesis intact. $UBER almost filled the only major gap from earlier this year; if reclaimed, $91 to $92 becomes the pivot range for confirmation.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context:

I’m bullish on Uber’s macro positioning. As industrials outperform and services remain resilient, Uber straddles both sectors: mobility and tech; making it a hybrid play on global reopening, AI monetization, and consumer data leverage. Unlike $LYFT or $DASH, Uber’s scale, AV partnerships (e.g., Nvidia, Waymo, WeRide, Aurora), and delivery dominance set it apart. Its moat spans mobility, delivery, freight, ads, and memberships. No other player holds this breadth globally.

Notably, Uber dominates in 108 out of 171 countries analyzed. Its presence across all continents, without aggressive discounting, proves operational scale and moat depth. The global affordability map further illustrates its dynamic pricing adaptability, from Indiana’s $30 average ride to Washington’s $53. This regional sensitivity to cost supports margin optionality without losing volume; a rare feat in on-demand logistics.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health:

Forward P/FCF remains below historical median. At $12B FCF by 2027 and a 27× multiple, implied valuation is ~$324B; nearly 2× current. With cash flow accelerating and capex rationalized through partnerships, margin expansion is likely. Adjusted EBITDA margin already rose from 1% (2022) to 3.7% (Q1’25). Ad revenue is forecast to reach $3.7B by 2027. Uber is converting optionality into operating leverage.

Uber Eats’ recent AI-powered enhancements are another driver of margin and stickiness. Features include auto-generating menu descriptions, summarizing customer reviews, and live order chat. This last feature, real-time communication between merchant and consumer, helps reduce order errors and personalize service. It’s not just tech polish; these tools reduce churn, increase accuracy, and make Uber Eats the control tower for local commerce.

Uber’s capital strength is further validated by its $7.5B stock buyback plan, the largest in its history. Barclays analysts view this as a vote of confidence in Uber’s future free cash flow trajectory and management’s conviction on undervaluation.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan:

I’m already long Uber and actively looking to add on any pullbacks into strength. My preferred accumulation zone remains $85.00 to $86.50, anchored to the gap-fill and Keltner support. I’m using $80 as a soft risk parameter, though the structural support at $85 should hold if the bullish thesis remains intact. A confirmed move above $91 to $93.71, especially if accompanied by volume expansion and favorable post-earnings flow, would reinforce the setup and open the way toward $100 (base target) and $120 (stretch target).

Given the compression in the 30m and 4H Bollinger and Keltner Bands, combined with elevated short interest and consensus earnings upside, I see this setup as high-conviction into the August 6 report. The path of least resistance remains higher if execution delivers.

🏁 Conclusion:

I’m convinced Uber is no longer just an app. It’s infrastructure: moving people, food, data, and now ads. Its ability to compound cash while scaling innovation makes it one of the most asymmetric plays in large-cap tech. From volume-anchored ride pricing in America’s cheapest states to AI-enhanced commerce in its Eats division, this is a platform quietly rewriting the rules of mobility.

I believe Uber deserves a seat at the table with the MAG-7, it’s the invisible eighth: a logistics, data, and monetization engine hiding in plain sight. The market may not see it yet, but I do!

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Q2 Estimates: Revenue $12.47B (+16% YoY), EPS $0.83 (+21.5%), Net profit $1.668B (+13.4%)

• RSI: holding above 50; MACD on 4H nearing crossover

• Price: $86.91; Key support at $85.24 (gap fill); Resistance at $91 to $93.71

• Gross Bookings: $82B annualized; EBITDA: $3.1B (+45% YoY)

• Analyst PT Avg: $100.06; High: $120; UBS PT: $115 (Buy)

• Uber One: 30M subs as of YE 2024; +5M added in Q4 alone

• AV TAM: $1T; Strategic partnership with $LCID, NVIDIA, Waymo, and more

• Indiana avg fare: $30.35 vs Washington $53.46; supports regional scale model

• AI in Eats: Menu automation, real-time order chat, and photo enhancement tools

• Buyback Plan: $7.5B announced; Barclays views as strong cash flow confidence

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