To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE TESLA DAILY TARGET ETF(TSLZ)$ 

Momentum Surge Meets Structured Resistance

I’m confident we’ve just seen one of the quarter’s most instructive price sequences. $TSLA pushed to an intraday high at $346.64, then failed to confirm any early long signal on my intraday system. I’m currently reading that as a clean short fade into the close, not a structural trend break. I believe the move completes a classic breakout then retest of the upper trend line from the year-long symmetrical triangle. The message is simple: momentum cooled at resistance, higher-timeframe breakout still stands if the retest holds.

Key Levels That Define the Next Move

I’m bullish on the bigger setup, yet I respect the retest. I think the next two to three sessions decide whether buyers defend the breakout shelf. I’m ready to treat $346.64 as the near-term reclaim trigger, with $353 and $359 as the first two magnets if volume expands. I’m waiting to see bidders absorb supply at the retracement zone first.

Catalysts Aligning with Technical Context

Fresh robo-taxi commentary reignited autonomy optionality, and the coming sunset of the US $7,500 EV tax credit pulled forward demand, lifting Model Y wait times from one to three weeks to four to six weeks. The macro overlay is constructive: the White House extended the China tariff deadline by another 90 days, removing a near-term cost and supply-chain overhang. The tape reflected that optimism early, then disciplined it into the close.

China Demand Pulse Reinforces Breakout Bias

Insurance registrations in China rose 21.6 percent week on week off a prior base near 11,020 units. Pair that with a September arrival for the new longest-range Model 3 at RMB 269,500, equipped with a 78.4 kWh LG Energy Solution battery, and you have credible demand support into Q4. China’s order book strength underwrites the idea that this is a retest rather than a top.

Industrial Capacity Signals Strategic Expansion

JLL arranged $32.175M of acquisition financing for a 183,340 square-foot rail-served facility in Taylor, Texas, fully leased to Tesla on a 10-year agreement. The site sits inside a logistics park near Samsung’s $17B semiconductor campus. That proximity signals tighter integration between manufacturing, suppliers, and rail logistics, supporting execution speed and resiliency.

Intraday Structure Confirms No Early Long Signal

The 5-minute and 10-minute captures showed no valid early long trigger. Instead, $TSLA delivered a precise 34 and 50 band fade, rolled under VWAP, and trended lower through the magenta value zone into the close. That was a textbook “trend-day down after a morning pop,” often followed by day-two continuation into support before buyers re-engage.

Multi-Timeframe Structure Holds the Edge

4H: Price tagged the Keltner and Bollinger upper envelopes and curled. A 4H close back above the mid-Keltner after a $326 to $321 test would be my confirmation for momentum to re-assert toward $350, then $359.

Daily: The breakout above the long symmetrical triangle is intact; we’re now retesting the upper trend line from above.

Weekly: Higher lows are forming, and price is reclaiming the weekly 55 EMA, which it has struggled with for months. This shifts the longer-term bias from repair to build.

Fibonacci and Elliott Mapping the Retest

The .5 retracement sits at $326.13 and the .618 at $321.29; both align with prior resistance turned support at the triangle’s upper edge. Wave (3) is at $346.64, wave (4) likely tags $326 to $321, and wave (5) projects to $359 with a stretch to $374 if breadth expands. $326 to $321 is the decision box between “healthy retest” and “failed breakout.”

Options Flow Shows Hedge Discipline Not Panic

The IV smile shows elevated deep OTM put pricing while near-the-money IV has flattened versus last month; short-dated skew has tightened, signalling calmer sentiment even as downside tails hold a premium. Traders bought a net equivalent of 508,053 shares via options, with the largest bullish delta from calls. The biggest single delta volume came from the 19-Dec-25 340 put at 407,186 deltas (~$37.5M notional), likely institutional hedging rather than outright bearish positioning.

Flows and Overbought Signals Justify Profit-Taking

Net inflows of $677.8M on 06Aug and $571.7M on 08Aug energised the run; a $48M outflow on 11Aug aligned with overbought conditions and the late-day roll. MACD histogram turned positive on 07Aug and hit 4.15 by 11Aug; RSI(6) reached 74.97; KDJ’s J-value spiked to 97.37. That cluster supports tactical profit-taking near $346 to $350 without undermining the broader breakout structure.

Risk Posture Remains Balanced with Upside Bias

Abnormal prints in ultra-deep OTM puts, such as 90 and 80 strikes with volume to open-interest ratios at ~2,861 percent and 250 percent, look like tail-risk protection. With the Fear and Greed index at 66 and forum bullishness near 74 percent, the market wants upside exposure while keeping disaster insurance in place.

Product Cadence Supports Medium-Term Skew

The China-spec Model 3, priced at RMB 269,500 with LG Energy Solution’s 78.4 kWh pack, extends range leadership and should lift mix into year-end. Paired with growing backlogs and faster registrations, it supports a constructive medium-term bias.

Competitive Risks Still Manageable

Ford’s scalable EV platform is narrowing the manufacturing efficiency gap, which is the key domestic competitive risk mid-decade. Time valuation of autonomy remains a watchpoint; markets can over-capitalise distant revenue streams in greed phases.

Probability-Weighted Trading Framework

Bullish: Stabilise in $326.13 to $321.29, post a higher low on 30-minute, close 4H above mid-Keltner with volume >20-day median by 20 percent. Reclaim and hold $346.64 on >25M shares to target $353 then $359; stretch to $374 if breadth and IV cooperate. Manage with trailing stops and financed call spreads.

Bearish: Close below $321 opens $310 then $300. Hedge with put calendars at $315 to $305 or reduce delta until a base forms. Invalidation is a swift reclaim of $326 after a flush.

The rally is not ending; it’s retesting. A break of $350 is probable if $326 to $321 holds and $346.64 is reclaimed with conviction. Short-term momentum has cooled from overbought, exactly what I want to see before advancing to $353 and $359. Long-term, autonomy, energy, China demand, and industrial scale support the upside skew. These are not predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks tied to levels, volume, and verified charts.

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