To The Moon

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Intel(INTC)$ I’ve opened a small starter position in $SOFI as a conviction play on its structural shift toward profitable, blockchain-enabled financial services, and I’ll look to add meaningfully once price confirms a sustained break and hold above the $25 pivot with volume support.

⚡ Conviction and thesis

I’m fully convinced $SOFI has crossed from a domestic consumer-fintech into a regulated, on-chain payments platform. I’m confident this isn’t a headline pop; it’s a structural shift anchored in execution, regulation, and a clear product roadmap. I’m unequivocally optimistic because the catalysts compound: Lightning remittances, a wallet and stablecoin stack, improving margins, and a technical structure that argues for re-rating rather than mean reversion.

🌐 Product: Lightning remittances via UMA

SoFi will enable international transfers inside the app using Lightspark’s Universal Money Address on the Bitcoin Lightning Network. Dollars convert to Bitcoin in real time, route across borders, then arrive as local currency in the recipient’s bank account. Mexico is first later this year; more corridors follow. Transfers run 24/7 with transparent rates and fees below the U.S. average. With 11.7M members, even modest penetration into the U.S.–Mexico corridor positions SoFi to compete with incumbents that still rely on costly, batch-based rails. I’m tracking time-to-market, corridor expansion cadence, and per-transfer unit economics.

🧩 Trademarks and ecosystem build

New filings on 18Aug25 show 11 marks including SoFi Wallet, SoFi USD, SoFi Payment Coin, and SoFi Stablecoin. I’m reading this as an intent to build a closed-loop stack: deposits and lending at the bank core, a consumer wallet for payments, a stablecoin to minimise friction and enable float economics, and Lightning for settlement. Unlike most crypto start-ups, SoFi carries a U.S. bank charter; that credibility lowers adoption friction and widens regulatory latitude.

📈 Fundamentals and operating leverage

Q2’25 put numbers behind the story. Revenue was ~$844.9M, up 43.9% year on year. Financial Services revenue grew 105.8%. Operating income hit $112.2M, up 602.9%, with a 13.3% margin. Net income reached $97.3M, up 459%, for an 11.5% margin. Members climbed to 11.7M on ~850K net adds. Full-year guidance stepped higher. I’m focused on the mix shift toward fee and services income because it scales with far less capital intensity than balance-sheet lending.

🧮 Valuation lens and peer context

At ~$23–24, $SOFI sits around mid-single-digit forward sales. Banks look cheaper, but banks aren’t compounding services revenue at 40% plus while expanding GAAP margins. I’m evaluating SoFi against profitable fintech platforms and software-enabled financials rather than money-centre banks. The market has re-rated similar stories once operating leverage became durable. SoFi now looks earlier in that arc: narrative and profitability inflect first; multiple expansion follows sustained delivery.

📊 Sentiment, street gap, and short interest

Analyst targets remain behind the tape: average ~$19.74 across 17 analysts, range $6 to $30, with 50% Hold and JP Morgan reiterating Hold. I’m here for that disconnect; Street models rarely price new fee pools until uptake is visible. Open short interest has compressed to ~30.6M shares with days-to-cover near 1. Daily short-volume ratios remain elevated, yet price has trended higher. If remittance adoption lands while shorts grind lower, incremental demand can meet dwindling supply.

🧭 Macro tape, flows, and positioning

Across the tape today, net options drift shows call selling in $GOOGL, $META, and $NVDA while indices cool from highs. I’m watching this rotation because idiosyncratic growth with improving profitability often outperforms when crowded mega-caps de-gross. Defensive staples such as $KO are range-bound and $AMZN sits below weekly resistance at ~$241; that context sharpens SoFi’s catalyst-driven divergence.

🕰️ Price action and intraday structure

As is tradition, $SOFI dipped intraday on good news; the 3-minute view shows a spike into the supply band followed by a controlled fade toward rising intraday EMAs. I’m watching for acceptance back above that pink supply zone to confirm trend resumption. Volume expansion on the push and RSI leadership align with bullish control on higher timeframes.

🧭 Technical roadmap and levels

Monthly: price has reclaimed the 0.886 log fib near $22.76 with Bollinger expansion and rising MAs beneath. The next confluence is ~$28.26.

Weekly: momentum is constructive; RSI holds above 60 and MACD trends up; structure prints higher lows.

Daily and 4H: Keltner and Bollinger channels are trending; pullbacks into the rising 21- and 55-EMA zones have been buyable in the trend.

Key levels I’m using now: immediate pivot $25.14. Flip $25 into support and the high-probability path opens to the $28 handle, then the long-term symmetry and fib extension cluster near $45. A second rejection at ~$25 likely triggers a three-wave pullback into $21.80–$22.60 without breaking the thesis.

🧠 Strategy and risk framework

I’m tactically patient. I’m tracking a decisive daily close above $25.14 with rising volume for confirmation. I’m considering adds only on constructive pullbacks that hold rising weekly structure and maintain RSI regime. I’m not disclosing a position here; the plan is rules-based: execute on confirmation or accumulate on disciplined retracements.

🗣️ Leadership signals and product roadmap

Anthony Noto continues to frame blockchain as speed and cost reduction for money movement, with secured-lending potential off crypto collateral later. The June re-entry into crypto laid groundwork for on-chain rails, custody, staking, and borrowing against crypto assets. I’m watching for three proof points next: corridor expansion beyond Mexico, wallet engagement metrics, and any clarity on stablecoin mechanics and reserves. Each deepens the services revenue flywheel and strengthens SoFi’s moat.

🧩 Narrative: “SoFi is Palantiring”

The price-to-story cadence now resembles the $PLTR arc: sceptical coverage while margins inflect; breakout over long-term fibs; analysts raise after price discovery. I’m targeting $45 on that multi-quarter roadmap, not as a hopium number but as a symmetry- and execution-backed destination.

🎯 Why this can re-rate

I’m convinced three forces converge:

1. A regulated bank owning consumer distribution with 11.7M members.

2. A services stack that monetises payments, wallet, and prospective stablecoin float at scale.

3. Durable operating leverage proven in GAAP, not adjusted optics.

This is where fundamentals and positioning collide; this is a roadmap, not a reaction.

❓Your move

Are you treating $SOFI as a momentum breakout or underwriting it as an early-stage global disruptor that deserves a higher multiple once $25 holds and corridor metrics arrive?

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